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Not long ago, the United States of America has been hinting at the imposition of sanctions on Gebran Bassil, or his relatives and the President of the Republic, including former ministers.
The decision was postponed more than once. But US policy was clear: The goal of its threat to impose these sanctions is to lure Bassil and blackmail him into making political concessions. The president’s son-in-law abandoned some and played others.
In the previous and current stage, he bet on several crosses to avoid penalties. His big bet was on the chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the United States Congress, Elliot Engel, with whom he has a very solid relationship. But Engel was no longer in his position and the concessions he made were not enough.
On the final anniversary of Aounist’s Oct. 13, he said that the US threats of sanctions will not scare him. He was betting on more than one position within the US administration, and he relied on the momentum of launching the border demarcation negotiations, believing they could protect him from sanctions, while what was required of him was much more than what he did.
Weakening of Aoun and Hezbollah
The policy followed by the US administration is based on the principle of “dismantling” Hezbollah’s alliances and terrorizing the popular environment of the party with financial and economic pressure and siege. Basil’s strength lies in Hezbollah’s strong need for him. He is a strong Christian ally of the Shiite party, and has extensions and connections that give the party necessary cover.
Bassil followed anti-Arab policies in favor of Iran. He fought against many political forces to satisfy Hezbollah. But it has reached the most dangerous juncture: o Hizbullah in exchange for improving its image and relationship and avoiding sanctions, or sanctions that will strip it of any external force in its relations, leading to its weakening within Lebanon, and the intimidation of Christians and businessmen who are going around you. This means the elimination of your political future.
And after the US decision to crack down and attack Hezbollah, one of its most important allies had to be attacked in the Lebanese arena. The sanctions against Bassil are based on a well-studied record, subject to US law, and which has obtained political approval.
Hizbullah had invested all its energies in a strategic ally that ensured great cover. The expiration of this coverage weakens the role of the President of the Republic, and places him in a difficult and embarrassing situation, after making his mandate fuel for the operation of Gebran Bassil’s locomotive and his political future.
The demarcation and the fate of the government
The new decision is directly reflected in the efforts to form a government. Aoun will show great intransigence, like Bassil, as the Amal movement and Hezbollah behaved after the imposition of sanctions on Ali Hassan Khalil and Youssef Fenianous.
There is a question that must be asked: Did the sanctions come after the attempt to abort the border demarcation negotiations or to turn against them? The sanctions cannot be separated from the Lebanese conditions that were introduced in the border demarcation negotiations. Especially since Lebanon tried to circumvent Hove’s initiative to negotiate an area of 860 square kilometers.
The American response was strong. And Israel and the United States cannot agree to the Lebanese coup. Therefore, the country will be in a difficult state and it will not be easy for it to accept Israeli conditions.
Basil will not be the last person to be targeted by US sanctions. There are many personalities whose files are present and are waiting for a political decision to announce them. This means more tension and tension at the political, financial and economic levels. The succession of sanctions is one of the biggest signs that the Lebanese crisis cannot be solved simply by forming a government.
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