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Events in Lebanon accelerate before the arrival of French President Emmanuel Macron in Beirut, after the President of the Republic, Michel Aoun, instructed the Lebanese diplomat, Mustafa Adib, to form a new government, with the support of 90 deputies of 128, to succeed the government of President Hassan Diab, who resigned after the August 4 attack in the port of Beirut / This August.
As a result of French pressure on the political leaders in Beirut, the sudden agreement on a figure outside the batch of political candidates for this position raised many questions, especially about the background of Adeeb’s nomination to form the “mission government”, after his recommendation by the club of the four former heads of government, and the immediate adoption of him by the strong. There are many, at the forefront of which is Hezbollah, the Amal Movement and the Free Patriotic Movement.
This nomination reinforced fears among some forces in Lebanon that the Mustafa Adeeb government would be a revised version of the Hassan Diab government, or that the experience of not nominating a “prominent Sunni figure in the political arena” would take hold, in parallel with the French proposal of the need to go to a “new decade” in Lebanon.
The most prominent opposition positions came from former Interior Minister Nihad Al-Machnouk, who apologized for participating “in the divine victory celebrations that take place in the Republican Palace and are called binding consultations”, as he himself put it, and He blamed him by asking: “Is this the commitment that former prime ministers are asking for with New civil nobles?
Michel Aoun (center) appointed Adeeb (right) to form government after 90 deputies out of 128 supported him (Anatolia)How do the political forces justify the appointment of Mustafa Adib?
Mustafa Alloush, a member of the political bureau of the Future Movement, headed by Saad Hariri, believes that what prompted the former heads of government to recommend Mustafa Adeeb was the advisability of the street demanding the nomination of an independent personality. Therefore, “the head of the Future Movement, Saad Hariri, was excluded from taking on the task, so Adib came is adopted based on the French advice, so as not to whet the appetite of other parties to join the government.
When I asked Alloush if the Sunni community in Lebanon was paying the price for not being really represented in the position of prime minister, Al-Jazeera Net responds that “Sunnis pay the price not only in Lebanon, but in Syria, Iraq and Yemen, as a result of the absence of international coverage and the lack of regional and local leadership to take care of their presence and improve their conditions. ” In Lebanon and the Arab world, they will be the weakest link in all settlements. “
On the other hand, writer and political analyst Tawfiq Shoman, close to Hezbollah, believes that Mustafa Adeeb’s nomination is a French production, and that both the president of the republic and the Shiite duo (Hezbollah and Amal Movement) expected Hariri to adopt the name of his candidate, in response to Macron’s insistence on consensus earlier. Arrival in Beirut.
However, will the Adib government be a prelude to a “new contract” that undermines the Taif Agreement that was established in 1989?
From the point of view of the writer and political analyst Johnny Mounir, the role of the Adib government is “exaggerated”, since he believes that “its mission is less than a year old, it is limited to implementing the reforms that Lebanon requires, preparing for parliamentary elections and deal with the repercussions of the Beirut port explosion. “
He told Al-Jazeera Net: “The new contract is not only related to the Lebanese interior, but it is related to the external settlements and the conflicts in Iraq and Syria, and it will be with the participation of all the main forces of the country, then it will go to improve the Taif Agreement or to discuss the French proposal that calls for respect for pluralism, which means decentralization. ” (Federalism), while the Shiites ask for triple, and this is a debate (that needs) many years before it crystallizes. “
At a time when the Future Movement was taking on a mission to uphold the Taif Accord, Mustafa Alloush believes that after “this accord became the subject of suspicion, investigating the constitution became a necessity.” However, any constitutive agreement – according to Alloush – must take the form of a “new national contract” based on the redesign of geographical borders “, but if Hezbollah’s weapons do not come out of the internal equation, then” no national contract that ensure the preservation of Lebanese geography and demography cannot be completed. “.
Tawfiq Shoman expresses a different point of view, and believes that the opening of Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah to the French initiative was in harmony with the position of President Michel Aoun, who called for the construction of a civil state in Lebanon. , and explains its openness to move towards a new Lebanese decade. Shoman said: “Franco-Iranian communication cast its real weight on internal Lebanese positions, and Hezbollah’s position crystallized, but the matter needs regional coverage that will not be available before an Iran-Gulf deal.”
Shoman reveals to Al-Jazeera Net his information on the French attempt to extend the communication bridge between Riyadh and Tehran regarding the Lebanese question, establishing an indirect consensus that would facilitate the process of pushing the Lebanese towards a national dialogue, welcoming France for effective Lebanese forces for dialogue, and then amending some constitutional articles based on development. The Taif Agreement and the French can go to the last point. “Schuman believes that there is Franco-American coordination towards Lebanon, and” what matters most to the Americans at the moment is the question of demarcation of borders in the south with Israel. “
Hassan Diab resigned after the Beirut port explosion on August 4 (Al-Jazeera)So will the next Adib government succeed in these missions?
Even if there is internal government facilitation as a result of international pressure, Johnny Munir believes that he may be on the verge of a direct collision with the street if he does not implement the reform provisions, especially the electricity issue. As for Tawfiq Shoman, he expects the government to face significant obstacles on the road to reform, especially in the case of an escalation of US pressure before moving to the stage of national dialogue to produce a new political contract.
On the other hand, Mustafa Alloush goes further, considering that the commitment to the performance of the government is evident through his ministerial statement and the names of his ministers. He recalled: “It remains the most prominent station that many ignore: the renewal dossier of UNIFIL forces on the Lebanese border with Israel, and it is linked to the American position in Lebanon, because what the United States is demanding on behalf of Israel is to expand the scope of UNIFIL’s work to surround Hezbollah’s armed presence in the border areas according to a decision. ” 1701 “.
This station, if Lebanon accepts it, would mean that “Hezbollah and Iran are ready for an agreement with the United States, which can be translated by the next government in its performance.”
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