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Mounir Al-Rabee` wrote in Al-Modon: The Lebanese are witnessing a historic transformation these days: the transformation of Lebanon, which was once a state, into a disintegrating country and an invalid arena. The legalization of the Lebanese state was not the work of those who destroyed the political, constitutional and administrative institutions of the state only, introducing political factional struggles at its core, solidifying their work and persecuting it..
Command in JVeh
Among the most dangerous developments in this abuse and its developments, which were common in the days of previous civil wars, are intelligence and security. He was referring to an Israeli occupation of Lebanese airspace, until the Lebanese got used to flying enemy planes in their skies in their daily newspapers. But the new was recently revealed: an Israeli commando ship arrived a few days ago on the coast of Jiyeh, and the truth of the mission it carried out was not known, nor if it was just a reconnaissance mission..
For this reason, the Lebanese fear that the country will become a scene of shadow wars, similar to what happened and is happening in Syria and Iran, aligned with an intelligence struggle that is expanding vertically and horizontally, which is not the result of this moment, but is subject to exacerbation and expansion..
This type of war exists. Proof of this is the series of sporadic events that occurred previously, including the car bombing of Hamas leader Muhammad Hamdan two years ago in Sidon. And then the operation on Moawad Street in the southern suburb of Beirut, with two drones whose target was unknown, noting that Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah had previously announced that his party leadership knew what he was targeting..
This process was accompanied by many analyzes and possibilities about the possibility of an Israeli infiltration to operate these two planes and control them, either by sea or by land..
One goal: collapse
The security and intelligence wars continued: from the operation of targeting the car of Hezbollah officials near the border factory, until the possibilities of intelligence work in the port explosion were not abandoned, and then the bombings of Ain Qana and Jaba.
So, nothing prevents such operations from expanding. Especially in light of the Israeli insistence on targeting Hezbollah and its military and missile infrastructure. This activity can be resumed after demarcation negotiations are impeded. As if the pressures Lebanon faces all lead to one conclusion: there is no salvation except through understanding with Israel, similar to the political or financial gains made by countries that opt for the option of normalization..
And since the path of border demarcation has come to a halt, the potential for escalation is renewed, along with more pressure, and leaving Lebanon to collapse without the direct cost of war..
Lebanon no longer arouses international and Arab interest, and no one is willing to provide support or assistance at this stage. As if everyone is waiting for a total collapse. And after I start talking and paying attention.
Walnut macaroni
The only stakeholder in Lebanon is French President Emmanuel Macron. He is visiting Lebanon on the 22nd of this month and will meet with the leadership of the UNIFIL forces in the south and the French force operating within the international emergency forces. According to the information, Macron will bear full responsibility for the collapse of Lebanese officials, who did not take away what France offered them to save their country and protect it from collapse..
When mentioning the French president’s visit to the south, a prominent political official was quick to ask a question that carries a lot of discontent, as it asks: “Will Macron pass the government?” This refers to the recent Jiyeh incident, and links it to not welcoming the French president’s visit..
Here, it is necessary to point out the extent of American and European pressure on the French to change their approach to the Lebanese dilemma, especially with Iran and Hezbollah. We must wait for what Macron will say during the visit of the UNIFIL forces, that Washington seeks to enhance the scope of its work and its powers..
Southern Syria
Politically, no one expects Macron’s visit to cause a change in the Lebanese political reality. The government will not be formed, nor will pressures be relieved. Lebanese doors will be open to many bad and dangerous possibilities, including security and intelligence possibilities. Either through localized security targets or logging penetrations in multiple areas, similar to what happened in Jiyeh, for example..
And what is happening in Lebanon is not far from what is happening in Syria. The Americans and Israelis agree to prevent Iran from forming a new Hezbollah-like organization in southern Syria. Addressing this project presupposes an expansion of Israeli military and intelligence activities in southern Syria, and perhaps along the Syrian-Lebanese borders.
