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Under the title “Dollar Shortage: How Will BDL Finance Import?”, Rali Ibrahim wrote a newspaper article in “Al-Akhbar” stating that in recent months, bank depositors discovered that they could not recover their money, because much of it was wasted. With respect to external transfers to Lebanon, it will decrease by virtue after the Bank of Lebanon attempts to defraud its owners. Which is worth asking about the authority through which the BDL will attract dollars to import raw materials such as wheat and medicine. More importantly, are the Lebanese doomed to hunger? …
And the writer continued in her article: “Are we heading for famine? A question that many have been negotiating since the lira lost its stability against the rise of the dollar in an insane way. Expat remittances to their families in Lebanon , especially after the recent circulation of the Bank of Lebanon to charge them in the Lebanese currency?
In this context, economists unanimously agree through the newspaper that what the Bank of Lebanon calls the “reserve” of $ 21 billion is nothing but the money of the remaining depositors: less than $ 5 billion is spent on fuel (around 2.5 for electricity and the rest for fuel), while the 15 billion is a cost In general But with the current crisis, Lebanon will not be able to import more than half of this amount. The result is that we are heading towards a deepening crisis, and all sectors related to the consumption of imported materials will be deemed influenced. The writer added: “The irony here is that economists see in this crisis an opportunity to float domestic production, according to the theory that production is high and with low importation citizens are supposed to pay to replace imported products. with Lebanese products. Luxury is no longer an option or spending tens of millions of dollars on the import of roses and milk. And milk, different types of cheese and wine instead of going to agriculture and industry The main question asked by One of the experts: Why do we consume Australian apples, for example, instead of Lebanese, and why do we import juice and milk from Saudi Arabia? It is forbidden to harm this agreement (a casual spectator) Yes, the old government of Saad Hariri canceled the deal.) The Lebanese will have to drink Lebanese wine (53 wine factories operate in Lebanon) instead of the French and Italians, and buy clothing and furniture manufactured n local.Please note that former Economy Minister Mansour Batesh imposed additional import duties on furniture that led to insanity According to 2018 studies, there is no country in the world where consumption volume exceeds production volume , which economists describe as “crime”. It should be noted that only 15% is government consumption (7 billion and a half billion), unlike what is promoted, and the rest is due to household consumption (50 billion).
On the other hand, hunger in the sense of not having the ability to import fuel, wheat and medicines depends on whether the Governor of the Banque du Liban and the Lebanese government decide to carry out their duties or not, since it is assumed that the The government’s priority is an action plan to increase production and reduce imports. “The problem is in the productive sector, and the solution is in a productive economy, not rentier. The economic, monetary and financial model that was implemented after the Taif Agreement has fallen and the state today has to review its policy in its entirety. “says an expert. Continuing “exporting our children instead of producing and exporting is no longer useful.” As for not paying attention to the reasons for this deterioration, it will inevitably lead to a very close crisis in the next two months, especially since the foreign transfers that were part of the liquidity used for importation have gradually decreased over the years. and they will decrease at a higher rate today with the Bank of Lebanon attempt to seize these dollar-reaching funds by turning them over. To the recipient in Lebanese currency and at the exchange rate determined. Although these remittances peaked in 2014 with a total value of $ 9.7 billion, it began to gradually decrease in the following years, reaching $ 7.8 billion in 2018 and $ 4.3 billion until June 2019 (85% of this amount is the value of remittances from expatriates (equivalent to 3.5 trillion dollars). But what is remarkable here is that all of these funds do not stay in Lebanon, but in 2019 and June, $ 2.9 billion came out, including $ 1.9 billion, which are transfers of foreign labor to their families abroad, which is 65% of total transfers.
The writer indicated that the purchase invoice of the Banque du Liban is divided by wheat worth 150 million dollars per year for 600,000 tons, in addition to 1 trillion and 400,000 dollars for the invoice for medicines, including medical equipment, and $ 2 trillion and $ 200 million per fuel and the equivalent of this amount to purchase the fuel from Electricity Corporation. Lebanon However, the fuel bill fell today, with world oil prices falling from $ 5 billion to $ 3 billion, which is supposed to ensure significant savings. The dilemma here is that the Bank of Lebanon, and according to experts, will finance this importation of what remains of the people’s money. But the “cache” through the bank will decrease dramatically due to citizens’ lack of trust in the banking system after imposing illegal Capital Control, and the sending of money through companies will also decrease as a result of the recent circulation received in Lebanese pounds, which brings us back to the main point: How will the Bank of Lebanon finance the importation of raw materials? Was it previously financed by export money and expatriates? …
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