Akhbar Al-Youm – Analysis: Syrian economy stands between destruction of its capabilities and slim chances of turning the wheel

Ten years after the start of the popular protests, the Syrian crisis and the harsh multinational war that accompanied the Syrian economy with great losses, depleted and destroyed more than two-thirds of its resources. As a result of these losses, the GDP of this economy, which was among the most diversified economies in developing countries, fell to less than $ 20 billion by 2019, after rising to $ 60 billion. in 2010.

With the continuation of the crisis, rampant corruption and favoritism in government departments, the influence of groups of warlords, the tightening of Western sanctions, the consequences of the Crown, drought and the departure of basic wealth from the control of the Syrian state, the situation continues to worsen. This is evidenced by near-uncontrolled inflation and the Syrian pound deteriorating to around 4,000 pounds on the free market against the US dollar against less than 50 pounds before the crisis.

At a time when the median monthly salary ranged from $ 300 to $ 600 before the crisis, it is now in the $ 20 to $ 50 range. According to the United Nations World Food Program, 67 percent of them now need monthly help to cope with hunger. The program, of which Germany and the countries of the European Union are among the main sponsors, provides food aid to millions of Syrians as their purchasing power declines. An example of this deterioration is the increase in the price of an egg from 3 pounds before the war to 300 pounds now. News prices increased 60 times, while basic food prices increased 33 times.

The Syrian economy on the eve of the crisis

It is difficult for those familiar with the issues of the Syrian economy, which before the crisis was one of the most diversified economies of developing countries, absorb this deterioration in a country that was prior to the outbreak of popular protests in March of 2011 against the Syrian government and President Bashar al-Assad produced between 75 and 85 percent of their food, medicine, clothing and shoes. The surplus is exported to more than 60 countries, according to data from the Arab Fund for Economic and Social Development and the Central Statistical Office. Syrian oil production was about 450 thousand barrels per day exceeding the needs of the local market, and the surplus is exported by about 150 thousand barrels per day to Germany in the first place. Syria was among the top five countries in the world for cotton production and sheep and cow farming. Regarding its cereal production, it ranged between 3.5 and 6 million tons per year, which exceeded the needs of the local market in most years.

Despite the disastrous consequences of the drought in various regions of eastern Syria at the time, the octopus of corruption, poor government performance, corruption in its institutions, and its abhorrent restrictions on private initiatives, basic goods and services such as bread, sugar, rice, medicines, energy sources, medicines and education were available in sufficient quantities and at nominal or free prices, despite the weakness of the quality of a section of them. Due to the cheapness of its products, the quality of its consumer industries and the long history of its history, Syria was the destination of millions of tourists a year, who added more than 8 million in 2010.

Damascus products in an old market in 2010, which is a specialized market for the sale of spices and traditional Syrian products.

Some current indicators

Today, commodities are in short supply, people stand in long lines every day to get what little is available due to the destruction of factories, agriculture and the weight of Western sanctions on Syrian trade.

In Aleppo, the economic capital of Syria, for example, according to a British BBC report, 18 out of 20 industrial cities were destroyed during the war. In these cities, thousands of modern factories were burned or dismantled and their equipment was transferred to Turkey under the watchful eye of President Erdogan’s government, in a precedent not seen since World War II. The city, with its factories and workshops, which numbered around 35,000, was the most important center for the manufacture of textiles, fabrics, clothing and footwear in the Middle East.

In addition to industry, a vital section of bridges and highways was also sabotaged, and railroads were dismantled and sold for scrap. In addition, about 70 percent of the electricity stations, gas and oil pipelines were destroyed. The opposition “Syrian Democratic Forces” and US forces control oil and gas in the east of the country. Here it is necessary to remember the words of the former president of the United States, Trump, when he said that “these forces are there to protect the oil facilities and that they hope to earn millions of dollars” from the seizure of Syrian oil and grains stored in the Hasaka governorates. , Deir Ezzor and Raqqa. As a result of the death of some 400 thousand people in the war and the disability of more than this number, and by asylum and migration abroad, which affected more than 5.6 million people, according to UN estimates of 21 million people, the Syrian economy has lost most of its skills, skilled workers and entrepreneurs who mainly headed to Turkey, Germany, the Gulf states and Egypt.

Ibrahim Mohammed: The wheel of the Syrian economy will not turn in the midst of the crisis without finding a political solution and Western support with capital and technology

Lack of opportunities for improvement

With the exception of some improvements in agricultural production in the south and west of the country and east of the Euphrates, and the rehabilitation of some light industries in the fields of food and medicine in Damascus, Aleppo and Homs with private initiatives or with Russia and With the support of China, the Syrian economy today faces the risk of further deterioration due to the absence of a political solution to the current crisis.

Many factors stand in the way of this solution, notably the differences between the Syrian government and its supporters, on the one hand, and the opposition forces and their supporters, on the other, over the new constitution and the nature of the phase of political transition. . It is well known that corrupt warlord groups in government and opposition areas do not want to end the conflict because its continuation serves their interests.

Meanwhile, the toughest US sanctions came through the “Caesar Law” to make matters worse due to its ban on dealing with all Syrian banks. The law also provides for the punishment of any foreign company that deals with Syria. Although he talks about excluding food and medicine from the ban, the reality is that preventing financial transfers makes it difficult or impossible for any commodity to reach Syria, regardless of the nature of its use. This led many recently, including friends of the United States, to criticize the law as it prevents “working with Syria and complicates its return to its Arab environment,” according to UAE Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan.

In this context, the experiences of many countries, including Iraq under Saddam Hussein, indicate that it is ordinary people who pay the price for sanctions in the first place, not the rulers or regimes that Washington wants to overthrow. At a time when criticism of the law and sanctions is mounting, the US administration insists that its aim is to force “President Bashar al-Assad and his government to enter into a political dialogue and open the way for humanitarian aid.” . The longer this debate lasted and continued, the more Syrians would pay the high price for a war that destroyed their economy and livelihoods.

Ibrahim mohamed