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In a development that may be notable at the field level in the Syrian war, the American Institute for War Studies said in a recent report that Ankara agreed to relinquish control of areas in southern Idlib to Bashar regime forces al -Assad, during a meeting held on September 16 between Russian and Turkish officials.
The report noted that if this information is correct, the attack by Syrian regime forces and their allies may be imminent.
The report found that Russia and Turkey are negotiating an agreement that provides for a partial Turkish withdrawal from Idlib, and there are indications that Turkey has withdrawn hundreds of its forces from southern Idlib cities in the Jabal Al-Zawiya region, such as the towns and villages of Abdita, Ishsim, Al-Maghara and Pelion earlier this month under the pretext of redistribution. On the ongoing maritime disputes between Turkey and Greece.
The American Institute called the Turkish withdrawal from those areas a “major turning point” in the Syrian crisis.
Idlib, which has become the last major stronghold of the Syrian armed opposition, was the target of airstrikes two days ago, the most violent of their kind since the ceasefire agreement last March.
Signs of a “hidden deal”
Syrian opposition sources said that five Russian planes had launched more than 30 violent incursions into the village of Arab Saeed and the forests of the towns of Kafargars and Batnah in the southern Idlib countryside, causing widespread damage to buildings and property.
Opposition civil defense sources explained that some of the raids were aimed at military sites, without knowing the extent of the damage in those sites.
Commenting on the statement in the American Institute for War Studies report, military analyst Ismail Ayoub told Al-Hurra that the Jabal Al-Zawiya area in the southern governorate of Idlib is on the verge of a deal to hand her over to Syrian regime forces and Russia, similar to what happened in previous areas that witnessed violent battles before the end of the matter. Leaving it to Bashar al-Assad’s forces, such as the city of Morek in the Hama countryside, Maarat al-Numan and Saraqib in the Idlib countryside.
He noted that the recent Russian escalation through violent incursions launched by its fighters in the region indicates the imminence of a major military operation that may be carried out by Syrian regime forces and allied militias.
The expulsion of the Syrian Democratic Forces
Ayoub did not rule out that there was a “hidden deal” between Russia and Turkey to hand over the Jabal Al-Zawiya region in exchange for a meaningful exchange between the two parties. The Jabal Al-Zawiya area is of strategic importance to the regime due to its viewpoints in the countryside of the Al-Ghab plain in Hama governorate, and the presence of factions south of the “M4” international highway. The link between Aleppo and Latakia, which is considered a vital artery for the Damascus regime.
In return, Turkey may seek, according to the Syrian opposition military analyst, to obtain Russian aid and facilities so that the Ankara-backed opposition factions can control the Tal Rifaat area in the northern Aleppo countryside and drive out the Democratic Forces. Syrians, which Turkey considers a terrorist organization that poses a great threat to its national security.
The situation is complicated
He continued: “Despite all this, the situation remains complicated in the region and it is not clear in its contours, due to the ambiguity of the position of the United States regarding what is currently happening and the degree of willingness of Washington to accept such an agreement between Turkey and Russia. “
For his part, the Syrian opposition military analyst Ahmed Sharrouf confirmed to Al-Hurra that Turkey will not surrender in the entire Idlib region, whatever the results, since this small area, which does not exceed 3,000 square kilometers It includes about 4 million civilians, and that area is the stronghold. The latter is for the armed factions, so 60,000 fighters will only have to fight until their last breath.
He stressed the difficulty and complexity of the situation there, with what he called hasty Russian positions that enhance the solidity of the strong American position in the first place.
