Cautious Latino Hopes: Biden Talking About “The Obama Doctrine”?

Four difficult years for leftist regimes in Latin America, under the administration of Donald Trump. The administration’s coup plans to successively topple left-wing capitals, from Venezuela to Bolivia, failed. And when it was not possible for Trump to win over his Democratic rival, Joe Biden, it seemed that a different stage in North and South relations would begin with the new administration taking office on January 20. Given that Biden was former Vice President Barack Obama and one of the architects of his foreign policies, especially those related to South American countries, this gives a possible vision of the policy of the next administration, which is expected to re-adopt the “Obama doctrine “.

Juan González, a former Obama administration official and Biden’s adviser on Latin American affairs, believes that the current administration’s policy in the South is “a failure.” In an interview with The New York Times, he says that this administration lacks a policy for South American countries, while preparing “Trump’s electoral strategy for South Florida.” But what are Biden’s alternatives? Benjamin Goldfrank, professor of international relations at Seton Hall University in New Jersey, said in an interview with Al-Akhbar that the two countries that the next president will focus on on the Latin continent are Cuba and Venezuela, due to the presence of large number of Latin Americans of Cuban descent. And a Venezuelan in Florida (Biden lost). In the case of Cuba, he says: “Biden will try to reactivate the friendlier relations that began with Obama.” As for Venezuela, “it will continue with the sanctions strategy, which only deepened the economic crisis in Caracas … and announced that it would grant temporary protection status to Venezuelans in the United States,” he adds.
Regarding the role of the opposition leader, Juan Guaidó, Goldfrank points out that the latter and his allies “wooed Trump, hoping that his administration would help them take power,” adding that “the two men were used to try to gain legitimacy.” . Guaidó in Venezuela and Trump among Latino voters of Venezuelan and Cuban origins in Florida. “Looking at the results of this exchange of interests, Goldfrank says:” Trump won in this equation after winning a relatively large proportion of the Latino vote by using of anti-socialist rhetoric, which helped him win Florida. On the other hand, Guaidó lost his popularity in Venezuela, where he became seen as a puppet of the United States, especially after his failed attempts to overthrow Maduro. “And Goldfrank points to the severe division in the ranks of the Venezuelan opposition , as Guaidó is concerned about Biden’s victory and fears that the latter will undermine his alliance with the United States. Not far from Havana and Caracas, the case of La Paz looks different, according to the Latin professor and author of the books Deepening Local Democracy in Latin America: Participation, Decentralization, and the Left and Left in the City: Participatory Local Government in Latin America. After the Movement for Socialism won the Bolivian elections and ended the coup, “Biden must wait .. . Since he still does not have any plans for Bolivia, since the elections have just taken place. “

There is no bet on any real difference with respect to Latin America after the inauguration of Biden

Regarding his potential policy toward immigrants from South and Central America, Biden will seek to pass a law in Congress that will “establish a roadmap for citizenship” for the 11 million illegal immigrants living in the United States, and why almost 700,000 young people came to the country illegally as children, and are called “dreamers.” However, this depends on the Democrats winning two seats in the state of Georgia to adjust the result with the Republicans (50 to 50), otherwise, “progress in the reform of the immigration system seems almost impossible,” according to Goldfrank.
Although Trump and Biden are on opposite sides on domestic issues, their foreign policies appear similar, even if methods and tactics differ. While the Republican Party adopts a tough policy, the “Democrat” tends towards soft power accompanied by the threat of the use of military force, which allows it to maneuver and reach settlement solutions to crises. Biden himself expressed this pattern when he said, “As a nation, we must show the world that America is ready to lead again, not by model of force, but by force of model.” Therefore, it is not possible to bet on a real difference in the US approach to socialist regimes in Latin America after Biden entered the White House. Even the most optimistic about real change do not expect the president-elect to deviate from the “Monroe Doctrine” (established in the era of American President James Monroe in 1823, according to which the Western Hemisphere was designated as Washington’s backyard), which is considered one of the constants of both parties.
Most observers agree that Biden played a central role in the Obama administration’s foreign policy. During that period between 2009 and 2017, a policy of opening towards South America was followed. This arose, in particular, in easing the siege on Havana, in the hope of allowing the emergence of a private sector and civil society, which would form a solid foundation for an attempt to overthrow the regime on the island, according to observers. On the other hand, the Obama era witnessed several coups d’état against leftist regimes on the continent, such as the coup against Manuel Zelaya in Honduras in 2009, Fernando Lugo in Paraguay in 2012, Dilma Rousseff in Brazil in 2016, and the attempted coup against Rafael Correa in Ecuador in 2010. Among them are the From the beginning, it cannot be guaranteed that the coup scenarios will not be repeated in Latin America during the Biden era: “Everything is possible … Biden will not pursue a regime change agenda in the Caribbean, “Goldfrank believes.
Left-wing governments on the continent are well aware of American intentions. Therefore, Nicolás Maduro’s speech on September 30 said that “the two candidates represent the same enemy” and “if Trump or Biden win, we will confront and defeat him.” Despite this, the Venezuelan president rushed to congratulate the elected president, expressing the willingness and openness of his country to “dialogue and understanding with the people and government of the United States.” The same occurs with the Cuban president, Miguel Díaz-Canel, who said that “there is the possibility of establishing constructive bilateral relations that respect the difference of the other.”
Cautious hopes, then, are those that are reflected in the declarations of the two leaders; Trump’s stay in the White House had “very negative consequences for the already troubled relationship between Washington and both Havana and Caracas, and blocked any possible dialogue,” as confirmed by the Venezuelan ambassador to Lebanon, Jess Gregorio Gonzales, in an interview. previous with Al Akhbar. . As for Biden, his need to produce a different image of the United States abroad may lead him to a more moderate foreign policy, especially in closer settings. To lead the world with a model, you must first change the paradigm.

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