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The report indicated that just as the US media turns various possibilities, and from various aspects, to the course of active “trials” and “fights” in Washington, in an effort to answer the question: Will the transition take place, without problems or otherwise, when and how? The political and media circles of the capitals of the region, in turn, deliberate on a set of scenarios and possibilities, fueled by some of them that suggest the incessant leaks of US newspapers and news sites that treat this issue with great seriousness, often relying on “trusted sources of security”. Almost all of these leaks are on Two Leads: Iran and the Palestinian Question.
On the Iranian track; The leaks begin by talking about the possibility that the United States or Israel, or both, inflicted specific painful attacks on Iranian targets, mainly nuclear … There are few details about the “nature” of these attacks, and if they would be carried out by means “cybernetic” or with the usual conventional weapons: precision missiles, smart bombs and strategic bombers … Or will the issue be limited to carrying out “assassinations” of Iranian figures and allies, within Iran or in its areas of influence ?
Speculation in this regard is not limited to the possibility of an “attack” and only its nature, but also includes possible Iranian reactions to such action, and whether Tehran will respond by attacking direct US targets, or hit the Israeli rear, and how such development will be reflected in the situation in Iraq and Lebanon. And perhaps in the Gaza Strip and Yemen … the door to speculation is wide open, and decision-makers in the region are taking the issue seriously.
However, the “military attack scenario” is not the only scenario that circulates in this way, as there is speculation about a new package of sanctions against Iranian institutions and personalities, which will continue with the “maximum pressure” tactic adopted by the administration. Trump, mainly in his policy against Tehran, provided that the sanctions this time include a fan. A wide range of Tehran’s friends, allies and “allies of their allies”, starting with the leader of the Free Patriotic Movement, President Michel Aoun’s son-in-law, Representative Gebran Bassil, to the package of sanctions against Syrian and Iraqi personalities and institutions . The Houthi group “Ansar Allah” may be blacklisted by terrorist groups in the United States.
This scenario, although less direct on Iran, will complicate efforts to arrive at political solutions to some open crises, which are likely to be revitalized if Joe Biden assumes the presidency after next January 20 … We have seen more obstacles in the way of forming a new Lebanese government headed by Saad Hariri following the US action on Gebran Bassil, and the Iraqi scene is expected to worsen in the event of expansion by imposing additional sanctions on Iraqi officials who are friendly to Iran. It is not possible to imagine any political solution for Yemen without their participation, especially since they represent an important party.
And if news like this is sure to please friends of President Trump and his administration in the region, especially in Israel, Saudi Arabia and the Emirates, then it is likely that the US official in charge of the Iranian dossier, Elliot Abrams, who toured the region, discuss such matters with the leaders of the countries I visited. It was notable that Riyadh, at the end of a recent meeting of the Saudi Arabian Council of Ministers, in the language of the Saudi monarch, called on the international community to confront Iran’s destabilizing role in the region and to confront its nuclear and missile ambitions. .
American and Israeli analysts have interpreted the reluctance (and delay) of the leaders of these countries to congratulate the president-elect of the United States, Joe Biden, as a “wait” to know what is in the bag of the American envoy, and what he intends do the Trump administration in the last ten weeks of his term, and not even. Any hasty attitude emitted by these countries causes inconvenience to the Trump administration, and discourages it from what it can do or intend to do … Only in this context can the “acceleration” of the approval of the “F-35” aircraft agreement and its annexes that the UAE concluded with Washington at a value exceeded 23 billion dollars.
On the Palestinian track, Israeli sources summed up with three points, what Israel can expect in the next ten weeks, or rather what it can ask the Trump administration, as a “last service” that can be provided in the remaining time. in the White House:
First; Immediate US recognition of Israel’s annexation of parts of the West Bank, whether those that the “deal of the century” maps authorized to annex, or whether only “major settlements” were annexed, given that any future political solution to the Palestinian problem it will not include the dismantling of these settlement blocks.
the second; As compensation for Washington’s approval of the F35 agreement with the Emirates, Israel will ask the Trump administration to provide it with more sophisticated weapons and ammunition, to enhance its “strategic advantage” in the region, provided that an agreement is concluded in this regard, in the transition phase and before Joe Biden takes over. Note that American democratic administrations have never shown a “lesser commitment” to Israel’s security and qualitative superiority.
The third; It is about Iran, and is related to specific attacks against facilities and targets related to Iran’s nuclear and missile programs, if the objective is not to prevent Iran from obtaining the “bomb” and its “means of transportation”, at least delay and obstruct this effort for years to come. Above all because Israel fears a “breakthrough” in Washington’s relations with Tehran, the return of the Joe Biden administration to the nuclear agreement and the exit of Iran from the clutches of the “maximum pressure” that depleted its economy, reduced its resources and it weakened its ability to support and support its allies in the region.
Whatever it is, the step that the Trump administration will take in the “time out”, under the impetus of an “ideological current” within it, and with the encouragement of its allies in the region, will have consequences and repercussions that may be difficult for the Biden administration to contain its effects, as if we were facing an attempt to impose facts on the ground. And, in a preventive way, he is laying more mines in the ways of the president-elect in foreign policy, after his transfer to the White House was a “trap”, with many complications and complications.
