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Many around the world view Russia, including the Arab countries, as a miniature Soviet Union, with the same foreign policy motives and principles.
And they still believe that the same behavior and negotiation techniques that were effective during the Brezhnev era can be applied. They under the illusion that it is enough to declare a confrontation with the United States of America, so that Russia automatically begins to provide military and economic aid, and other forms of support.
In fact, leaders of some countries that fall within the scope of Russian national interests claim that courting Russia’s opponents could be an effective way to blackmail Moscow into obtaining some preferences and subsidies.
In addition, Russia’s weakness after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, and the current confrontation between Russia and the West, make Russia, from the point of view of some friendly countries, a lame girl who aspires to any form of interest, and is content with the bare minimum, looking for any marriage opportunity, even if it comes along. Engage with a toothless old man.
This was the logic of Armenia.
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Immediately after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Armenia was able to establish its control not only over the Karabakh regions, inhabited by Armenians, but also over the exclusive Azerbaijani lands in the same area around Karabakh. This euphoria of victory led to the myth of the superiority of the Armenian army over the Azerbaijanis within the Armenian community, and for this reason, Armenia rejected all settlement proposals, for several years, including those made by Moscow. This position was reinforced by the fact that there is a Russian military base on the territory of Armenia, and the presence of the latter in the Collective Security Treaty, which makes it imperative that Russia protect it from aggression.
At the same time, and despite the fact that Armenia did not recognize the independence of Karabakh, the Armenians expected Russia to make efforts to legitimize the unrecognized republic, and when this did not happen, Yerevan’s eyes turned to the United States of America and Europe. , where there are strong Armenian communities, including Sufficiency. Furthermore, a broad conviction was spread within the Armenian community, which is very sympathetic to Russia, that rapprochement with the European Union will help the republic to achieve prosperity and democracy without much effort on their part.
Two years ago, these high hopes, in light of the deteriorating economic conditions in the country, led to riots that led current Prime Minister Nikole Pashinyan to power, who embarked on his best efforts to satisfy the West. , including showing steps to move away from Moscow, with Maintaining a certain rapprochement with Russia, based on what has been considered logical and taken for granted, which is the warm Russian stance towards Armenia, as if the spokesperson were to say: will Russia move without Armenia, its only ally beyond the Caucasus?
We now know the result well. The Armenian forces suffered a catastrophic defeat by the Azerbaijani army. Immediately after the fall of the strategic city of Shusha, the fall of the capital of the Karabakh region, the city of Stepanakert and the encirclement of all Armenian forces, and their complete destruction, and then the complete seizure of Karabakh, was turned into a matter that would take several days, and perhaps in the best of conditions, several weeks. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has already declared his intention to do so and generally had every opportunity to achieve his goal.
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Suddenly, with the participation of Russian President Vladimir Putin, the Azerbaijani forces were arrested, and within a few hours the Russian peacekeepers were deployed in Karabakh, although it seemed to have a rapid deployment, which had been prepared for it several weeks ago . In other words, Russia was prepared in advance for any development of events, to intervene decisively at the time it deemed necessary.
Here we can glimpse clear and closely related aspects of the similarity with the Russian intervention in Syria and the radical change of course of events.
As a result, Russia has strengthened its military presence in the region, controlling the passage between Armenia and Karabakh, which is vital for the Armenians, and Russia also controlled the passage between Azerbaijan and the Azerbaijani enclave of Nakhchivan, which is located in the territory of Armenia, which is what Azerbaijanis really need. Russian peacekeepers are stationed in Karabakh, thus absolutely guaranteeing the security of the region.
In 2008, Georgia attacked South Ossetia and killed some of the Russian peacekeepers. The result was a crushing defeat for Georgia and the recognition of the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. That is why I do not think that Azerbaijan wants to repeat that experience. Which means that Armenia is now linked to Russia by a heavy iron chain, and the presence of the Armenian enclave in Karabakh depends only on the good intentions of Russia and not on any other power.
At the same time, Turkey obtained almost nothing in Azerbaijan, apart from what it actually obtained there, which means that it did not become an equal partner of Russia in the mediation between Armenia and Azerbaijan. There may be more military cooperation between Ankara and Baku, but Azerbaijan is by no means a puppet of Turkey, as the country’s leadership follows a balanced policy in the true sense of the word and respects Moscow’s interests. Under this model, Azerbaijan would have to strengthen cooperation with Russia, so as not to become too dependent on Turkey.
We now turn to the lessons learned. Yes, Russia is not as strong as the Soviet Union, but it is still the only country in the world capable of destroying the United States of America, not to mention any other military opponent. Despite years of sanctions and an economic blockade by the West, Russia has shown that it has a stable economy. The country’s leadership also drew conclusions from the fall of the Soviet Union, and Russian foreign policy became more flexible and rational, with both friends and enemies. Russia’s main priority has always been internal development and it is interested in cooperating with all countries of the world. Russia does not seek expansion and therefore has no enemies in the world except those who wish to be its enemy.
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However, to become an ally of Russia now, it is no longer enough to just take it off, but also to do something for it, and I would like to put three lines in the last sentence.
I believe that the basic principle of Russian foreign policy is reciprocity, which applies to both friends and enemies. It is true that every action has a reaction of equal strength and counter-direction, and will return to its owner sooner or later with the theory of the “boomerang”, and most likely at the moment when you do not want it or expect it. Friends and partners can count on mutually beneficial cooperation between themselves and Russia. It is the right of pro-Russian allies, and those who support him in difficult times, to receive the same reliable support. As for those who have not yet resolved their matter, Moscow will consider what circumstances dictate regarding them, and for each recent incident …
Political analyst / Alexander Nazarov
The article expresses only the opinion of the newspaper or writer.
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