The “war party” instigated in a moment of defeat: would Trump attack Iran?

Have the calculations of the outgoing US president, Donald Trump, changed about the confrontation with Iran after his defeat in the presidential elections, in which he did not recognize the most prominent poles of his administration until now? It is well known that Trump adopted a policy of “on the brink of war” with Iran, despite the “involvement strategy” that the ideological-ideological core of his administration followed, aimed at pushing him towards a direct and open confrontation with Tehran. . He withdrew from the nuclear deal on the basis of his previous understandings, prior to his election, with the balanced currents of the Republican Party and American society, as well as with his close friend Benjamin Netanyahu, and launched a fierce hybrid war against Iran under the name of “maximum pressure”, but avoided going to a wide war despite the frantic efforts made by the aforementioned nucleus to get it to exploit what they saw as opportunities to do so. For example, it did not give a seismic response to the downing in Tehran of the US spy drone that violated its airspace, nor when the Yemeni movement “Ansar Allah” bombed Aramco’s facilities in Saudi Arabia, which angered some of its leaders. administration, like John Bolton, who concluded that Trump is using his presence. In the administration as a letter of pressure, within the framework of a policy that aims, ultimately, to negotiate with the Islamic Republic, and not to overthrow its regime or weaken it to the extreme. It is true that it presented, in accordance with the recommendations of this nucleus, the order to assassinate the martyr general Qassem Soleimani, but the Iranian response, decisive and controlled at the same time, by bombing the Ain al-Assad base in Iraq, was not picked up. by him as an excuse to respond to the answer and allow the confrontation to advance towards the war he wanted. . It is clear today, after Trump’s defeat in the presidential elections, that the “war party” in the administration will follow what it did before, that is, it will seek to impose more escalation measures against Iran, as evidenced by the “torrent” new sanctions against him and inciting tougher measures Some believe that he may go so far as to launch new attacks that will lead to a great battle with him. Le Monde, they will motivate you to accept what you previously objected to. However, the complications associated with the broader US and international political landscape, and Trump’s own calculations, do not allow for certainty about the options he may turn to.

An accurate estimate of the balance of power limits Israel’s enthusiasm for the “decisive battle” under the current circumstances.

The first considerations that will govern Trump’s decisions on Iran during his tenure in the White House are the electoral ones that have always overshadowed any other calculation, before and during his presence in power. If you intend to run again for the presidency in 2024, based on information received from the United States, it is unlikely that you will present prior vision and determination to rush into a high-risk and costly venture against Iran. Most of the 71 million Americans who voted for him in the last election, despite his racist convictions, his unrivaled hatred of Muslims and Iran, and his ideological bias towards Israel, do not want the American military to enter a new one. and costly war outside the home. The irony that Trump takes into account is that the racist and arrogant America that is loyal to him is the one that wants soldiers to return to the country from theaters like Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria and not be drowned in additional conflicts. Opening a battle with Iran, and the dire consequences it may entail, will undermine its chances of winning the presidential elections after 4 years, because it will be responsible for these results. Furthermore, Trump is aware that his personal agenda differs radically from the ideological and ideological agenda of the “war party”, as John Bolton pointed out in his recent book, and that this party does not care so much about its political future as its adherence. to achieving goals that some of its poles see as making history, others as an application. To commission my Lord. His poles will continue to push towards greater extremism with Iran, and Trump will respond to his “advice” and recommendations whenever they relate to new punitive measures that complicate the task of the Democratic Administration in its policy towards Tehran, and satisfy its desire for revenge against the latter who did not accept his offers of a “deal” with him. On your terms. However, if you abruptly review your plans for the future in the next two months and turn a blind eye to the possibility of running into the future, which is not an impossible possibility with an unstable personality like Trump, the risk of starting a war, or slip into it by an incalculable step, it becomes big. In the event that he abstains from his electoral ambitions, you will most likely listen to those who tell you that history will preserve his name as the American president who saved Israel by destroying its staunch enemies.
Another party whose role must be considered at this delicate stage is Zionist Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has had a tremendous influence on Trump and his team. There is no doubt that he, and the Zionist military and political leadership, are in a state of real panic at the process of developing the military and missile capabilities of the axis of resistance parties, with Iran at its center. A situation aggravated by their inability to stop this process with “operations without war” and the policy of “maximum pressure” inspired by the US “war party”. Of course, they hope that American firepower will turn the axis of resistance to rubble. However, an accurate assessment of the balance of power and the capabilities of the axis of resistance to deal with aggression, and its lack of ability to effectively protect Israeli depths from precise and guided missiles, are factors that can limit your enthusiasm for the “battle. decisive “under Conditions currently in force. The same applies to the fragile kingdoms and sheiks of the Gulf, who will not prevent the F-35 deals without their facilities and infrastructure turning to ashes if the gates of hell are opened. On the other hand, the participation of the Israelis and some Gulf regimes in inciting to attack Iran during the period until January 20 next will have negative repercussions on their relations with the Biden administration, which considers that any escalation that comes going to war with Iran is his first objective. From her perspective, seeking to put her at a standstill and work to thwart her policies from day one of her arrival to the brink of decision. They openly sided with Trump during the election campaign, but their involvement in a subversive strategy against the new administration will have costs for them that they cannot ignore with a country like the United States. All these data contribute to the complexity of the scenario, as well as to the attempts to anticipate the options that Trump will take, but the truth is that the most important indicator that can allow them to be understood is whether he is determined to run in the future or willing to refrain from doing so.

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