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The announcement of Joe Biden’s victory in the US presidential race last week raised questions about the approach his administration would take on Middle Eastern affairs.
The announcement of Joe Biden’s victory in the US presidential race last week raised questions about the approach his administration would take on Middle Eastern affairs.
For many of the leaders of countries who were quick to congratulate Biden, the US elections were linked to the departure of President Donald Trump and his policies and positions, as much as they ushered in a new era in relations with the president-elect. Biden is seen as a familiar figure on the world stage, ever since he served in Congress and took over as vice president under former President Barack Obama. He is also seen as a moderate figure, not inclined to deviance and extremism, and is likely to revert to the traditional methods of American power abroad. American presidents rarely deviate from guidelines dictated by American national interests and recommended by specialized agencies in dealing with the nations of the world.
Analysts do not expect a radical change in US foreign policy under the president-elect. After Trump raised the slogan “America first,” analyst Jason Markzak suggested that Biden would lead policies that believe the United States can achieve more when working with partner countries, while Emma Ashford, a researcher at the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, confirms that the Biden administration will seek to rebuild alliances. She says, “The election of Joe Biden, in the midst of what may be one of the most chaotic and dangerous times in American history, represents a victory for the values America was founded on, and is also an important signal to those friends abroad of our renewed commitment to work together to reinvest in multilateral cooperation. International standards and world order; It is the only effective means to face the urgent challenges that we face ”. He adds, “President-elect Joe Biden will seek to renew our political system at home and rebuild America’s alliances abroad.”
In this context, Biden is likely to slightly modify Trump’s policies toward the Middle East, but he will not deviate significantly from them.
William Wechsler, director of the Rafic Hariri Center and Middle East Programs at the Atlantic Institute, says the Biden administration provides an opportunity for the region’s leaders to re-establish “long-term relationships of common interest, including addressing threats Iranians. ” The incoming Biden administration will need to immediately focus on a wide range of key overseas challenges from China and Russia and the existential threat of global warming. However, it is very likely that when Biden turns his eyes to the Middle East, the president-elect will seek to offer the possibility of reestablishing the region on these terms.
Some analysts believe that Biden’s policy in the Middle East will not differ from Trump’s policy, except with respect to Iran and Turkey. In 2008, candidate Barack Obama promised that if he was elected president, he would withdraw US forces from Iraq within six months, which would have happened in mid-2009, but he did not withdraw US forces until late 2011, and ended up returning a few thousand. Soldiers in 2014.
The political conditions imposed by reality, political changes and the balances of power on the ground change many political orientations, despite electoral promises. Just as Obama promised to withdraw US forces, Trump spoke about returning US forces to the homeland, departing significantly from the policies of his predecessor, and taking a different approach from Obama’s approach to the Middle East region, especially with regard to to Iran, and tried to erase Obama’s legacy in the Iranian nuclear deal and announced the withdrawal of the United States. of the.
The president-elect has now vowed to backtrack on Trump’s foreign policy, especially regarding Iran and Turkey, but is likely to continue previous bipartisan policies toward the Gulf, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Israel, and Egypt. In this context, it is believed that under the presidency of Biden, the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council will continue to be staunch allies of America. Analysts say expectations in some quarters that the Muslim Brotherhood will gain influence in the Biden administration should be underestimated.
Regarding Iran, Biden wrote in an opinion piece he published last September: “We urgently need to change course”, considering that the policy of his predecessor Trump ended with a “dangerous failure” and put Iran, from his point of view , “closer” to possessing a nuclear weapon, According to a French press report. Biden stated in his article his intention to propose that Tehran embark on a “credible path back to diplomacy.” However, the president-elect stressed that he will be “strict” with Iran and will link any possible return to the nuclear deal with the return of Tehran to all its obligations. For its part, Iran has expressed its willingness to welcome the return of the United States, but highlighted the need for this to be accompanied by American compensation for what it has incurred since 2018 as a result of Washington’s breach of the agreement.
With regard to Turkey, there are expectations that the Biden administration will take a decisive stance in purchasing a Russian-made S-400 missile system, given that the Trump administration had refused to impose sanctions on it due to this issue.
As for Iraq, there is a belief that Democrats and Republicans are convinced that America’s investment in Iraq cannot be left to Iran. Under President Biden, US forces are expected to remain in Iraq longer, so that Baghdad and Iraqi institutions will be strong enough to deal with Iraq’s sovereignty over their lands and protect US interests in them.
In Syria, the goal of the United States is to make sure that this country does not become a failed state that exports terrorism and to ensure that ISIS is defeated. Analysts hope that Biden will maintain the presence of US forces in eastern Syria to continue to prevent the resurgence of “ISIS” and prevent the Syrian government from exploiting oil resources.
The Biden administration will also focus its attention on Lebanon in the area of fighting “Hezbollah” and reducing its influence, noting that Washington has recently tightened the screws on pro-Iranian militias through a series of sanctions.
Regarding the Palestinian issue and cooperation with Israel, the Biden administration will continue to support Israel in keeping its borders with its neighbors quiet, and US aid to Israel will continue and maintain its military superiority and that aid may increase to a higher level. Biden is unlikely to change Trump’s decisions and move the US embassy from Jerusalem to Tel Aviv. But it’s possible that his administration will reintroduce the idea of a two-state solution and build on what Trump has achieved in terms of normalization agreements between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Sudan.
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