Between El Niño and the Middle Ice Age … what does Lebanon’s winter hold for us this year?

Jana Jabbour wrote in “Nidaa Al Watan” The country of the four seasons has seen heavy rains in recent days, leading some to expect severe winters and snowstorms that Lebanon has not seen since the 1990s. This prediction is accompanied by the dissemination of information on social networks about the entry of the world into the Ice Age and the continuation of the El Niño and La Niña phenomenon, which will affect weather patterns around the world. How true are these predictions? And what will the Lebanese winter be like this year?

What is hiding in the Lebanese winter this year, which is the season of good, the blockage of drains and the collapse of buildings? Will expectations be met? Father Elie Khneisser, a meteorologist from the United States of America, points out that in Lebanon “there is a long delay in monitoring weather conditions, and the use of the terms” sunny, cloudy and cloudy “is imprecise to describe the weather. time. Also, all the information and articles that are published on the websites or social media sites, which revolve around the expectations of the whole season … false information. ”Where does Khneisser get his information from? He replied: “There are scientific methods to analyze the climate, and it is impossible to predict the entire winter season. This method is based on the study of global maps and how the depressions are directed, which allows us to have an idea of ​​the climatic conditions 3 days before and update our information 24 hours before the publication of the weather forecast. ” to update the information every 3 to 4 hours per day, because changes in air pressure and air conditions change weather conditions.This is the professional weather forecast method that developed countries follow and Lebanon is absent.

Snow and very cold?

The depression that Lebanon experienced last week is very normal in November, resulting in a large amount of rain in some areas that exceeded 120 millimeters. At Qobayat, for example, it clocked 165mm, at Zahleh, 92mm, and at Bashri, it hit 135mm.

Father Khneisser explains that, “After a long wait, the first winter arrived in Lebanon after the depression of torrential rains diverted to Lebanon, Palestine, Sinai, Syria and Jordan, and local transit rains fell. And since the soil is still solid, it did not absorb the amount of precipitation, which caused the formation of torrents. In some areas, the high level of water on the coastal roads, and the collision of the depression reaching Lebanon with the warm winds caused the formation of storms over the coast and mountains and in the interior as well as the fall of hail. And as the Earth prepares to enter the Mini Ice Age and there is a decrease in the number of solar holes, we will witness cooler weather. Observing that this coldness began to affect the earth since 2017, and will intensify next year (2021) and will continue for about 10 to 15 years. Also, we go back to 2014, when temperatures rose in summer and reached 48 in the Bekaa, so the winter of 2015 was very cold, since the temperature in the Bekaa also reached 16 below zero. This scene can be repeated in the winter of 2021, as 8 heat waves passed through Lebanon this summer, and the temperature in the Bekaa reached 45 degrees, so this winter can be cold and the temperature can reach 10 degrees below zero in the highlands of 1000 to 1200 meters. From sea. Likewise, if the cold masses reached Lebanon accompanied by low temperatures, the snow could fall to an altitude of 200 and 300 meters, especially in the northern regions. He added: “As for the weather this week, it will be volatile in the coming days, and the Lebanese regions will witness light rains due to the depression over the north. Egypt, and with this depression subsiding, the general rain will return to Lebanon next Wednesday night. “

Our ancestors used to predict the hot and cold the seasons and months of the year will carry through “Al-Bohair” … This method was avoided by Father Khneisser about two years ago due to its inaccuracy. The modern world does not recognize ancient media, although they are still around, albeit at a slower pace than in the past. Al-Bouhair is divided into two parts: Western and Eastern, according to the Eastern and Western Christian calendars. And if the western bohair begins on the night of September 13 to 14, that is, the night of the Feast of the Cross, and ends on the night of September 25 to 26, then this calculation according to the eastern calendar begins on the 26 to September 27 and ends October 7 to 8. And there are those who resort to the technique of salt, for that reason they put it on 12 mulberry leaves or on pieces of cloth that represent the months of the year, to feel it at dawn, and if it is wet, then this means that the associated month to this sheet it will be rainy, and vice versa. There are those who consider that the observation method is more precise, determining the weather both at the beginning of the month and at the end of it. This method is based on monitoring the movement of the winds, intensity and direction, clouds, intensity and color, and the percentage of humidity and dew … knowing that each day represents a month of the year, for example, corresponds to the first day of springs, that is, September 15, October, etc.

Lebanon’s climate like London in 2035?

We turn to the weather with the presenter of the aerial paragraph at the “LBCI”, the cold weather, who managed to attract attention for his information and his elaboration of the weather forecast in a distinctive way. Joe did not study this specialty, but worked on its development for more than 15 years, then became familiar with Lebanese meteorology, and based his analysis on global weather maps provided by professional companies, in addition to his knowledge of the geography of Lebanon, which helps you extract a weather forecast close to Reality. What are your scientific expectations for this winter? Al-Qarih states that “you cannot wait for a full season. Rather, the analysis is limited to a maximum period of one week, where the accuracy of the information hovers around 60 percent, and this percentage decreases as we exceed 7 days. Looking at the meteorology today, we see that the direction of the weather was tilted. In the heat of the last 10 years, unlike in the eighties and nineties, when the snow touched 500 meters. Noting that in 2015 we witnessed the last snowfall in this way. Likewise, El Niño and La Niña, which are streams of water in the Pacific Ocean, are disseminated, turning the water into cold or warmer than its natural state, which affects the air currents of the precious in the countries. The effect of these factors can last several years, so we see, for example, for a period of between 3 or 4 years, a mild winter and a hot summer or vice versa. This year, this effect is in our region in favor of Cold, but this does not confirm that the winter will be harsh, and there is also much talk about the mid-ice age, where the Earth is expected to witness a cold, and the climate of Lebanon may turn during the peak period of this era like the climate of London in the year 2035. However, these studies are not yet confirmed, especially with the extremes of the J atmosphere and global warming, which led scientists say that there is no middle ice age, but global warming, and this discrepancy in information prevents us from predicting the weather for an entire season.

Regarding the weather the following week, he said: “The depression that hit Lebanon has receded from northern Turkey, but the weather will be partly cloudy and wet, with the possibility that the local rain will not be complete falling by 30 and 60 percent in the next 6 days due to layers of high humidity. ” .

Between La Niña and El Niño

“El Niño” and “La Niña” are two climatic phenomena that occur in the equatorial region of the Pacific Ocean. However, the El Niño phenomenon, which continues to affect the world, occurs as a result of the warming of the water surface in the Pacific Ocean than its average. As for La Niña, it occurs as a result of lower temperatures than in the Pacific Ocean, and the two phenomena cause a series of strong disturbances in global climatic conditions. The La Niña phenomenon often affects the Arab region, with high temperatures and less rainfall in the Arab Mashreq regions, but the opposite occurs in the Maghreb regions, where rainfall increases and the temperature falls below its levels. The possibility of floods and flash floods increases in the Maghreb regions, while the possibilities of droughts increase in the Eastern Arab regions.

Middle Ice Age

The matter has become clear, according to Father Elie Khneisser, since the sun is in the calm phase (Solar Minimum), and the solar cost has dropped to 185, and in 2020 it will reach 170 sunspots, according to studies carried out by NASA around the sun, which heralds the predominance of the Ice Age on Earth in its northern parts. And the South, this cycle that repeats approximately every 120 years, has come its time, and the last half of the ice age that hit the Earth was during the 1880s / 1900s. And what happened in the last periods of the Arctic eruption and the blowing of icy winds towards the three continents and the low temperatures that brushed (-50) and (-65) below zero between Canada, America and Russia, the best evidence of the validity of NASA studies that the “Mini Ice Age” will send. Its warnings in the years 2018 and 2019 to begin its real effect in 2020 and extend until 2035, so that the land in its northern part will suffer in the winter from ice and continuous snow storms that will pose a threat to agriculture and air navigation, as well as the southern section when Australia, South Africa and South America are in winter. As you move towards the Middle East, you will not witness any effective resistance from the tropics to the decrease in solar activity, as cold polar descents increase, and coincide with the arrival of low air conditions, so the scene of snowstorms.