London is in strategic trouble

لندن | Joe Biden’s difficult victory allowed some of the main European capitals, mainly Brussels and Berlin, as well as Paris and other capitals, to breathe a sigh of relief, after four years in which relations between the United States and Europe remained close during the reign. Donald Trump, who had already engaged in a trade war with Germany and took a negative stance. From the role of “NATO” in preserving the security of the old continent, and demanding that European parties pay the costs of its protection, and inspired several right-wing leaders in small European countries to disrupt Berlin, and its Moral support somehow caused the British to recklessly choose to divorce from the European Union (Brexit), which would have caused the entire European fortress to break down.

But it is not the same in other capitals such as Budapest (Hungary), Rome (Italy) and Warsaw (Poland), which is governed by right-wing and fascist parties, and has recovered, even morally, with Trump in power during the last period, and certainly not in London, whose government found it with the arrival of Biden to the White House. It fell into an unenviable strategic position, after the British right-wing ruling junta had made all its tentative bets on the “Brexit” issue based solely on “Trump’s” political guidance.
Four years ago, when Trump first entered the White House, many members of the far-right of the ruling Conservative Party saw him as a staunch ally. Thanks to its open support for Brexit, and its friendly relations with Prime Minister Boris Johnson and a series of hawks hostile to Brussels, the United States, under the Trump administration, became the strategic milestone of British foreign policy that it wanted to give turning its back on continental Europe and offsetting its economic and geopolitical losses as a result of this through a deep network with the American in politics, and most importantly in economics, by ensuring the signing of a preferential trade agreement between the two countries. , qualitatively expand the circle of exchange between them and reduce the size of the strong contribution of the European Union to the British economy (more than 51% now).
With the victory of Biden, the crew of “10 Downing Street” (the headquarters of the British Prime Minister) will be, from this morning, forced to work intensively, during the next months, to explore the directions of the new administration regarding Europe in general and Great Britain in particular, especially after the incapacity of any British official. About even meeting with a member of Biden’s foreign policy team, who, as part of his campaign strategy, avoided contacting any government to eliminate any suspicions of foreign interference, making it difficult for Her Majesty’s government to plan possible scenarios. for the post-Trump world. With Brexit at the top of the British government’s agenda and the likelihood of not reaching a friendly deal with Brussels on the matter, London is shuddering at the prospect of losing momentum now to reach a trade deal between the two countries.

British officials are racing against the clock to draft a trade agreement between the two countries.

The origin of British concern in this regard does not stem from a radical upheaval in the relations between the two countries – which are historically, ideologically and practically irreversible – but rather from the decline in the importance of the British issue on the new president’s agenda. of purely objective factors, such as timing, for example; In the United States, a law that regulates the ratification of trade agreements will expire in July 2021. Until then, the Trade Promotion Commission allows the president to expedite the approval of the agreements in Congress by April 1 at the latest. Therefore, British officials are racing against time to draft a trade deal between the two countries that could win Biden’s approval, with additional complications stemming from the negative link between Republicans and Democrats in the makeup of the new Congress after the recent elections, which That means that the approval of the agreement could easily fall victim to disputes between the two parties.
Another issue sensitive to the future of the UK itself is the Northern Ireland Knot, as Biden is very proud of his Catholic upbringing and Irish roots, and has gone to great lengths to strengthen his position among American – Irish over the last few years. months in preparation for the election, and many have considered him the (most Irish) American president ever since. John Kennedy. Although the influence of this ethnic group has waned since Kennedy’s absence, nearly 1 in 10 Americans claim to have contact with an Irish ancestor, indicating that any future British decisions regarding the situation in the London-controlled Northern Territory he is unpopular with most Irishmen. You may not find support for it in the White House.
It is true that Biden – at least in principle – will not allow to undermine the “Good Friday Agreement” that brought a kind of calm to the disputed territory between the United Kingdom and the Republic of Ireland, and the latter seeks to restore it after years of mutual violence. , and months before had warned that This agreement becomes “a victim of the exit of Great Britain from the European Union”. Biden has previously voiced his opposition to the internal market bill that the UK intends to pass, which threatens to break the Northern Ireland Protocol contained in the “Brexit” agreement between the UK and the European Union, and questions the legal legitimacy of the agreed rules on customs agreements on the border between the two halves of Ireland. There is no doubt now that reaching any trade agreement between the United States and the United Kingdom during the Biden era “must be conditional on respecting (Good Friday) and preventing the return of the border between the two parts of Ireland – as Great Britain aspires. “.
Ideologically, Biden positions himself as a “transatlantic” traditionalist who adheres to a foreign policy doctrine at the center of relations between the United States and European partners. Therefore, your priorities from this perspective will revolve around restoring cordiality in relations with Brussels, first and foremost. He is expected to follow Barack Obama’s lead in making Berlin his main relationship in Europe, implying a broadening of Brussels’s sphere of influence (that is, Berlin actually) at the expense of the British role, and London may awaken the morning of January 20, with the inauguration of Biden. He occupies a more humble position than ever, and perhaps even “at the end of the waiting line.”
At the local level, this strategic setback will have a negative impact on the government and the person of Johnson, who has so far won his political game betting against the European Union, and the failure to reach a trade agreement with the United States will be an embarrassing defeat. for the government, threatening the UK’s position – political and economic – internationally. He will topple what remains of support for the Conservatives at home, even among the right wing itself.
What a dilemma!

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