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Mohamed Choucair wrote in the Al-Sharq Al-Awsat newspaper:
A political source accompanying the consultations between President Michel Aoun and the president in charge of forming the government, Saad Hariri, who is characterized by his positive and deliberate recognition, says that everyone will be surprised if the positive climate continues and pushes towards the birth of a government different from its predecessors, after discovering that what some media is reporting from Los fugas will not be present in the cabinet lineup; Especially in terms of chart reorganization, and specifically in regards to the application of rotation in the distribution of ministerial portfolios between sects, and in the distribution of sovereign portfolios on the other hand, with the exception of the Ministry of Finance, which will be of the participation of the Shiites in an exceptional way and for once.
The source confirms to Al-Sharq al-Awsat that communication between Aoun and Hariri has not been interrupted, and is a continuation of their bilateral meetings. It reveals that reserving a quota for the smaller sects in the distribution of sovereign portfolios, with the exception of the Ministry of Finance, is still on the table, and is now the subject of a discussion among them. He draws attention to Hariri’s insistence, in consultation with Aoun, to distribute the portfolios equally among the sects, without withdrawing from the political forces that seek to reserve his participation in ministerial formation, and believes that the mere adoption of quotas will push to the international community to deal with it as an emulation of itself, and not to revert to it by adopting the government for the roadmap agreed by French President Emmanuel Macron with the political forces at the Pine Palace meeting.
And he claims that the mere introduction of a government that is an exact copy of the resigned government headed by Hassan Diab with a name change from its president to his ministers, will lead Lebanon to a trial to further collapse. Because it will be born incapable of addressing the international community, on the one hand, and of transmitting a message to the Arab countries expressing their desire to correct Lebanese-Arab relations, bringing to an end the political effects of the confrontations that attacked them due to that Lebanon did not adhere to the policy of self-distancing.
The same source adds that the mere cloning of a government like the previous one will make Lebanon lose the last chance to get out of its crises and will increase the Arab and international blockade that has been imposed on it. He says it is too early to speculate whether the formation of the government will be delayed until after the US presidential election on November 3.
The reason is that it is not allowed to talk about moving the government formation until after the US elections, as long as there is contact between Aoun and Hariri; Unless Hezbollah believes it is necessary to wait, on the pretext that Joe Biden’s victory over current President Donald Trump will allow the party to toughen up its demands.
He believes that Hariri is proceeding optimistically, albeit cautiously, and now attaches importance to forming a government before the US elections, and this is what he is now discussing with Aoun. And it confirms that Hariri is not wasting the last chance to save Lebanon. But not at any price.
He believes Hariri is maintaining his position that the government consists of 18 ministers, in exchange for Aoun’s insistence on increasing the number to satisfy MP Talal Arslan. And he asks: What is the use of introducing a lax government while there is the possibility of abolishing some ministries and merging others into indispensable ministries? He reveals that there are those who are trying to persuade Hariri to represent Arslan with a minister, on the condition that he share it with the head of the Progressive Socialist Party, Walid Jumblatt.
He also asks for the reason for insisting that the third party guarantor of the government be on the side of Aoun and his political current, on the pretext that the latter needs the presence of ministers who will accompany him in the Council of Ministers. In this context, Asharq Al-Awsat learned that Basil’s claim through Aoun to the third party guarantor has become a thing of the past and is no longer marketable in light of what previous ministerial experiences have shown, that They have shown that they were behind the interruption of the councils of ministers and paralyzed the ability of governments to raise the level of productivity.
I also learned that the scale Hariri commits to when electing ministers, in consultation with Aoun, will be a key factor in preventing any one group from monopolizing the obstructive third party that will turn the government into a group of political and security islands, and make them lose harmony and the minimum level of governmental solidarity, and this requires first that it is not the shadow of Basil. Present in the consultations to monopolize the Christian representation.
Not to mention that independence based on the application of the principle of seeking the assistance of specialized ministers will be withdrawn from all ministries, including the interior, in the event that the life of an “important government” is extended until the end of the last. third of Aoun’s term, and the source attributes the reason to the need to choose a neutral minister to take over this portfolio, for supervision. On the holding of the parliamentary elections that will decide who will occupy the first presidency before the end of his term. This is in the event that circumstances allow it to avoid an enlargement of Parliament.
As a result, the consultations between Aoun and Hariri came close to the turning point. Will expectations be believed and will the government be born before the US elections? Or will his deportation reinforce the fears of some that the consultations will return to the square from which they were launched?
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