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Analysts say reforming the US-Europe alliance will push “Democratic” candidate Joe Biden to work with Turkey, or at least to go in this direction.
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Biden, who has described Erdogan as a “tyrant”, is expected to take a tougher stance than Turkey.
Days after Turkey received the Russian missile defense systems in July 2019, senior security officials in the administration of US President Donald Trump unanimously agreed on the need for Washington’s commitment to its threat to impose sanctions on Turkey, your NATO partner.
The US State Department had sent its recommendations to the National Security Council calling for immediate sanctions against individuals and entities in Turkey, and those measures would be implemented as soon as President Donald Trump approves them.
But two sources familiar with Trump’s decision-making process said he “failed to do so and his closest adviser disagreed” and Trump has so far refused to impose sanctions on Ankara for the purchase of the Russian missile system. S-400, which Washington says “endangers NATO’s defenses.”
Although contravention of advisers’ advice is common for Trump, his instinctive behavior has prevented him from treating Turkey gently without a complete breakdown of deeply deteriorated relations between Ankara and Washington.
The decades-long partnership between the two countries has witnessed unprecedented upheaval in the past five years, due to “disagreements over Syria’s policies, closer ties between Ankara and Moscow, Turkey’s ambitions in the Mediterranean. East, the US accusations directed at a Turkish state bank and the withdrawal of rights and freedoms in the country. ” Turkey”.
And if the Democratic candidate, Trump’s rival, Joe Biden, wins next Tuesday’s election, as opinion polls indicate, then Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will lose his best ally in Washington, leaving Ankara exposed to anger. the US Congress so hostile to it and some US agencies that are skeptical about it. Ankara “.
Biden, who described Erdogan as a “despot” last December, is expected to take a tougher stance on the part of Turkey, especially regarding the “decline of human rights and democratic norms” and may impose sanctions due to the Ankara’s purchase of the Russian S-400 missile system after Erdogan confirmed the week. Test the old system.
But analysts said the priority for Biden would be to confront Russia and Iran and reinvest in multilateral alliances, which could benefit Ankara.
Similarly, Max Hoffmann, associate director of the Center for American Progress, said: “It is unlikely that Biden will use an automatic approach to imposing sanctions, as many seem to assume, but it will probably reduce the gap between the ranks of officials specialized in. .. the United States government and the White House, which is the abyss that … expanded under Trump. “
“This will mean that Erdogan will not be able to turn US policy upside down with a call to the White House,” he added.
Trump has publicly praised Erdogan and his confrontational style of government, describing him as a “friend” and a “brilliant leader.”
“I think it’s fair to say that you will witness a stronger turn by the Biden administration against the Turkish government when it conflicts with the interests of the United States,” said Torey Tosig, director of research at the Belfer Center at Harvard Kennedy School, and He noted that “the decline of democracy in Turkey is likely to be a more significant source of concern.” .
Biden’s election campaign officials declined to comment on this report, and one of Biden’s foreign policy first steps will be to restore Washington’s commitment to the NATO-led alliances that damaged its cohesion during the era Trump in questioning the importance of the 70-year alliance.
Analysts said reforming the US-Europe alliance would push Biden to work with Turkey, or at least to go in this direction.
Soner Cagaptay, senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said: “Biden will communicate with Erdogan because the priority will be to revive NATO, and you know this is not possible without Turkey.”
But that effort will collide with mounting pressure from Congress to impose the “Fight Against America’s Adversaries” through the Sanctions Act, legislation passed by the United States Senate with the approval of 98 members in exchange for rejection by two members, and designed to punish aggression by Russia, Iran, and North Korea and dissuade other countries from cooperating with them. Countries.
“Congress’s patience has already run out,” Democratic Senator Chris Van Hollen said in an interview. “I imagine he will find bipartisan support in Congress to pressure the administration, whatever it is, to pursue the sanctions of the Anti-American Adversaries Act.”
So far, Washington’s punishment for Ankara for purchasing the Russian missile system has been to exclude Turkey from the F-35 fighter jet program. But Turkish companies still produce components for these planes.
Emre Baker, director of the Eurasia Group for Political Risk Consulting, wrote in a recent research note that “Ankara and Washington have a 6-9 month window to reestablish relations and build goodwill with the possibility of accidents continuing to increase and increasing over time. “
“With options to punish Turkey, regardless of Ankara abandoning the S-400s, it is likely that Biden will begin to impose lighter measures towards the end of 2021 under the Anti-American Adversaries through Sanctions Act and threaten to take more difficult measures unless back off, “added Baker. Turkey was derailed, considering that “the law on fighting America’s enemies through sanctions could be disastrous for Turkey.”
He noted that “the affected Turkish lira is particularly vulnerable to US sanctions,” adding that “Ankara does not show any sign of decline at this time.”
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