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The conflict in the Nagorno Karabakh region, which is the unrecognized Republic of Artsakh, with an Armenian majority. He demanded his independence from Azerbaijan and join Armenia, but Armenia did not recognize him. It is located in the Karabakh region in the southwestern part with an area of 440,000 square meters and 145,000 inhabitants, according to a statistic presented by the newspaper “Tagess Spiegel” for this year.
Independence in 1991 after the collapse of the former Soviet Union, brings us today the memory of the searing wars that took place in the early 1990s between Armenia and Azerbaijan over this disputed border region, which resulted in the deaths of more than 30 thousand people, in addition to the displacement of tens of thousands, which did not end until after The conclusion of a ceasefire agreement carried out by the Minsk group that emerged during the war 26 years ago to find a solution to the Armenian crisis- Azerbaijani, working with the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, led by Moscow, Paris and Washington, to clarify some points such as the future status of the Nagorno Karabakh region and the seven regions. The other occupied by Armenia, the return of refugees and the provision of security guarantees to both sides, but this has not been achieved in recent years.
When we talk about this fought war, we also remember the brutal “Khojaly” massacre and the atrocities committed by the Armenians on February 26, 1992 AD in cooperation with the Soviet forces at that time, stationed near the Azerbaijani city of “Khankendi” , which killed 613 Azerbaijani citizens including women, the elderly and children, and tortured prisoners. There were 1275 and 150 of them are still missing to this day, the other is considered one of the bloodiest massacres of the 20th century.
We are talking about a conflict that has its roots in the Soviet Union in the 1920s of the last century, when the latter in 1923 AD deliberately included the Armenian minority, which are the inhabitants of Karabakh within the borders of the Azerbaijani state, despite the desire of the population for Armenian subordination. On the other hand, the Azerbaijani minority remains in the “Nakhchivan” region. Within the Republic of Armenia. As for what constituted a time bomb, the Soviets granted Karabakh autonomy within the Republic of Azerbaijan. The current war between the two states is the result of deliberate Soviet partition decisions.
It is not certain whether the agreed ceasefire will be activated on the ground, as the Russian position that resolves the matter is not yet clear, and the dilemma in this equation is that the other has friendly relations with both parties in conflict.
The ceasefire has been in effect since noon on Saturday October, but the Armenian Defense Ministry claimed that Azerbaijan started the attack again at 12 o’clock, around the same time that the Azerbaijani side said Armenia targeted housing complexes. Azerbaijanis despite the ceasefire. . The conflict between the two sides worsens despite the talks in Moscow.
The Foreign Ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan met on Friday, October 9, in Moscow under the auspices of President “Vladimir Putin” at the invitation of the other in negotiations that lasted almost eleven hours. The ceasefire armistice was in doubt from the start, and it was, as the two sides actually broke the agreement. The truth is that both sides made no concessions during the talks for the sake of peace.
Azerbaijan refuses to budge
In this fragile state of the talks, a return to the pre-war situation does not seem to be expected, since almost two weeks ago the fronts between both sides were opened, which caused the fall of hundreds of soldiers between them, and the bombing of places settlements in cities and towns claimed civilian lives on both sides.
In the besieged Nagorno Karabakh region alone, more than 70,000 people have fled their homes. For years, the governments of “Baku” and “Yerevan” have meddled in this conflict, escalating accusations and mutual threats. Azerbaijani President “Ilham Aliyev” declared that there was no opportunity to make concessions and Armenia should leave Nagorno-Karabakh, adding on Friday Before the meeting of the foreign ministers, he will give Armenia the opportunity to peacefully resolve this conflict, which is your last chance. Only when Yerevan presents a timetable for its withdrawal will Baku agree to a ceasefire.
As for the Armenian government, it is not considering ceding the region, as the new prime minister, “Nikol Pashinyan” made clear a year ago, in a tone that left no hope for a negotiated solution that this region is Armenian.
As for the Azerbaijani people, they no longer believe in a diplomatic solution, as the 1994 EC armistice, mediated by Russia, was a defeat for them. The Armenians won the Nagorno Karabakh war and expelled the Azerbaijanis from the region that is still part of Azerbaijan under international law.
Nikol Pashinyan refused to participate in the negotiations while the fighting continued, accusing Azerbaijan of starting the war. Perhaps the other was the one who started the fighting, since Armenia, which already controls the region, has no interest in fighting, while Azerbaijan, which wants to regain its territory, will probably take this step. In Baku, a large part of the population called for war at the beginning of the previous summer.
Perhaps the escalation will serve President Aliyev, who replaced his father 17 years ago, as his oil-rich country suffers from low oil prices. Did you accept the decision of the war to divert internal political problems from it?
Moscow adheres to the role of mediator: It is possible that the decision of the Azerbaijani president of the war is due to two things, the first of which is support for Turkey and the second is Moscow’s constant insistence on the armistice and not to interfere at the same time. The Russian side is characterized by ambiguity towards Armenia, although the other is a partner of Moscow and a member of the same defense alliance. Instead, Putin has so far played the role of mediator, as he described in a television interview for the first time last Wednesday, October 7, that this war is a great tragedy. Russia’s close relationship with the two former Soviet republics, Armenia and Azerbaijan, made clear Moscow’s commitment to Armenia, but the fighting does not take place on Armenian lands, and therefore Moscow does not feel responsible for the region in dispute.
Armenia is a poor country in terms of population, army and equipment, and it is much weaker than the Azerbaijani army, and it needs Russia in its confrontation with the other, and this dependency serves Russian interests, as it will not allow defeat. Armenia in the end because it is an allied state, and Putin is unlikely to allow Armenia to lose Nagorny. Karabakh, at the same time, Putin has no reason to take military action against Azerbaijan if he is not obliged. Russia has good economic relations with Baku, since it is the Russian market for its weapons, and because the other did not separate from Moscow, unlike other Soviet republics.
Also, Putin knew Ilham Aliyev for much longer than Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, and perhaps the Azerbaijani leadership style is closer to him, with a disagreement with the new Armenian government, Pashinyan led a revolution in Armenia and is now being tried by the former head of state, two things he cannot tolerate. Head of the Kremlin at all. Expert “Alexander Bawunov” from the Carnegie Center in Moscow says that Russia has many reasons to help Armenia, but there is no single reason to punish Azerbaijan. And Putin sees in the two republics except for Russian spheres of influence, and clearly suspends the fragile peace mechanism and negotiations in Moscow, but the most important question in this equation is to what extent will Putin allow Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan intervene in the conflict on the Baku side?
Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Director Sergei Naryshkin has previously voiced concerns for the South Caucasus, which could become a new starting point for terrorist organizations infiltrating Azerbaijan and Armenia, potentially threatening Russia’s security. . Russia in fact interfered in the Syrian war under the same pretext. How long will Putin play the role of observer? The latest violent fighting for the Nagorno Karabakh region ended in 2016 after four days of atrocious war, this time there are no signs of peace between the two sides.
As for the Turkish side, he sent a message through Ambassador “Pazat Ozturk”, Turkey’s permanent representative to NATO to NATO Secretary General “Jens Stoltenberg”, on Thursday, October 1, in which he replied to the memorandum sent by the Armenian mission to the alliance, in which it addressed Turkey’s position on the conflict, in which Armenia blamed the misuse of the alliance and its platforms as tools to mislead and distort facts against Turkey, through the memorandum sent by the Armenian mission on September 28, which included Armenian accusations that Turkey pushes Syrian fighters to the side of the Azerbaijanis, and even takes note of the detailed reports. The latest on the transfer by Armenia of terrorists from the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) and the People’s Protection Units (YPG) and other foreign fighters from some Middle Eastern countries to the Nagorno Karabakh region, calling everyone to worry about these reports.
And he emphasized that adhering to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Azerbaijan in the regional conflict is a commitment made by the Turkish government at the various NATO summits.
The Iranian position
The official Iranian position supports Armenia for several considerations, especially after the South Caucasus began to receive the attention of some countries, such as Turkey and Russia, in addition to the fact that Tehran does not see Azerbaijanis as Shiites, as is the case with Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Bahrain. The contradiction is also evident between the adoption of the Turkish ethnic nationalism policy and the religious sectarianism of Iran.
Tehran changed its position in support of Armenia in the second week of the conflict against expectations, and this change may be due to pressures in Azerbaijan and the turmoil of Azerbaijanis in Iran, whose population reaches almost 16 million. According to Ali Akbar Velayati, international affairs advisor to the Iranian guide, Tehran demanded an end to the Armenian occupation of the region, specifically seven Azerbaijani cities, the return of more than one million displaced Azeris and a permanent and peaceful solution to the problem.
Russia’s role in mediating between the two parties instead of supporting Armenia, the fact that Nagorno-Karabakh is not on Armenian territory, in addition to the position of Iran and the Turkish military intervention, formed a tool of pressure on Armenia to end the three-decade conflict, which Minsk failed to resolve.
Writer from Jordan
