Excessive international optimism: no solid basis for the “Geneva Accord”

There are still differences between the Libyan parties, even after the signing of the “Geneva Accord” last Friday; Because there are sticking points that have not been resolved. It is true that all parties are committed to a ceasefire for reasons that concern their interests and rearranging their internal roles, but this situation will not continue indefinitely, with the continuation of the conflict and pending problems. Consequently, the Minister of Defense’s description of the “National Accord”, Salah Al-Nimroush, can be considered the latest agreement as “principled” and more accurate, noting that Al-Nimroush still refuses to stop military cooperation with Turkey, especially since an essential part of the survival of the “reconciliation” to this day is due to the unlimited support of Turkey, in exchange for the economic benefits that Ankara reaps under the agreements signed since the end of last year.

The Turkish-Libyan cooperation is not isolated from the conflict in the Mediterranean, especially since the agreement to demarcate the maritime border between Al-Wefaq and Turkey is one of the basic guarantees for the latter in its fight with its neighbors for the wealth that lurks in the depths of the Mediterranean, in addition to a confrontation with its European neighbors over maritime delimitation. Although several international parties, not only Arab, want to exclude Turkey from the Libyan scenario, reality confirms that there is no agreement without consensus with Ankara on several points, through “Al-Wefaq” and its president, Fayez Al-Sarraj, who his desire to resign seems to have changed. Temporarily until the resolution of pending matters.
In the midst of this, the United Nations appears to be overly optimistic, despite the facts it contradicts on the ground. With the virtual start of the “Libyan Political Dialogue Forum” yesterday, which includes 75 Libyan personalities chosen on the basis of criteria that represent different groups according to the United Nations, the announcement that there was no role for the personalities selected during the The transition period, and that they would not run for any office, was not enough to end the controversy and anger in Representative Relations of various currents. However, this forum is supposed to continue virtually until the direct dialogue takes place in the Tunisian capital on the 9th of next month. A step that the United Nations hopes will eventually lead to an agreement on a timetable for the transition phase, including holding parliamentary and presidential elections and a referendum on a constitution defining the form of government with full representation.
Accompanying sources indicate that the task of the Dialogue Forum is currently to discuss the selection mechanisms of the Council of the Presidency, Prime Minister and Ministers, a stage preceded by the agreement on a set of criteria regarding decision-making mechanisms, selection criteria and others. The sources added that Turkey is not the only obstacle to the agreement, but is “the only one that speaks openly and openly about the existing obstacles”, especially since the silence of other parties generates concern, especially since the suspension of all agreements will include damage to what was signed between the forces of Khalifa Haftar and Egypt, in addition to stopping aid. Without warning from the Gulf.
In any case, all parties agree to reduce the escalation of the military confrontation almost completely, but without acknowledging that a final agreement has not been reached. Until then, the space will be given to the United Nations to start a real political track, but in accordance with the conditions that the belligerents will formulate through their representatives. In this context, interested circles say that “Geneva” has established a framework for a series of action plans during the next stage, the main of which is the move to the political path according to general controls, but without mechanisms of Realistic implementation, with an agreement to establish the military armistice for at least three months. The deadline to remove the mercenaries from Libya and resolve their file.
What emerged after the agreement was the rise of voices opposing him from all movements, including Haftar’s forces and the parliament in Tobruk. Although the retired general welcomed him, al-Baith’s trip gave no guarantees of results. In parliament, the deputies criticize their colleagues who signed the agreement without resolving some issues, especially the fate of the agreements signed with regional and international parties. In addition to these internal disputes demanding the continuation of the truce so that the situation does not explode, popular anger continues over the deterioration of services in all regions, whether controlled by Tripoli or by the East. However, on the other hand, there is reassurance that oil supplies will continue and secure their way without objection, so that the current truce will remain satisfactory for all parties until further notice.

Subscribe to «News» on YouTube here