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Johnny Mounir wrote in Al-Jumhuriya: This time the winter will be long. It will start early with the closing of the polls in the United States of America, and will not end until the polls open to elect a new Iranian president in June. And what’s in the middle is the possibility of calling snap elections in Israel for the fourth time in a row in two years..
It is clear that this winter is undoubtedly linked to the results of the US presidential elections. Inside the United States, the chaos of the electoral struggle overshadows everything else. The Republican and Democratic sides are dominated by anxiety and tension. All surprises are possible, despite the survey numbers..
President Donald Trump’s campaign has picked up a bit, after making some headway at the faltering segment level, especially in the important state of Florida, which appears to be leaning in his favor, albeit by a narrow margin..
That’s because the second debate between Trump and the Joe Biden rivalry helped push the undecided behind Trump..
It is true that about 90% of voters said that there is no possibility that they will push them to change their position, but that influencing the remaining percentage is of great importance. This is how Trump won 4 years ago, despite losing the total electorate by about three million votes, with the difference that Trump’s followers are more committed to him than Biden’s. In fact, Trump voters are more excited about him than they were in 2016..
According to the “Washington Post” and the station poll ABC For example, 71% of Trump supporters are very excited to vote for him, compared to 44% 4 years ago..
Notably, 42% of those who support Biden actually vote against Trump, and they constitute the most enthusiastic segment of Biden’s electorate..
Early voting operations clearly showed that enthusiasm is high overall, with US voters turning out more than 6 times the 2016 election..
But there are differences that need to be addressed, as the percentage of Jews who will vote for Biden increased from 67% last month to 75%, compared to 22% for Trump..
As for American Muslims, who make up about 1% of Americans, 18% of them will vote for Trump, a quarter of whom are Middle Eastern Muslims. We must always remember that former President George W. Bush won the important state of Florida in 2000 by just 533 votes. Trump seeks to repeat 2016 scenario, which Democrats fear.
However, America’s troubles may not end with a lengthy headcount and late announcement of official results. Fear of complications, with the severity of the electoral campaigns and the insinuations issued by Trump, to reject by a slight margin the result in case of his loss, and to accuse his opponents of fraud, and therefore internal notes were circulated to the US police, ready to face possible protests and riots after the results were announced. He also put the possibility of using the army for the same purpose..
It is also reported that Trump, who benefited in 2016 from the FBI director’s announcement to reopen the investigation into the use of his private email by Hillary Clinton, just 11 days before the election, which negatively affected Clinton, wants something similar from the current director of the FBI. Christopher Ray, on the rapes and abuses of Hunter Biden, son of the Democratic candidate. But Ray, who rejected the request, faces possible dismissal after the election..
But whoever wins the US presidential race, the US military withdrawal from the Middle East will continue on its way to implementation. Both Democrats and Republicans want it. In addition to the fact that Americans are tired of the endless wars of the Middle East, this arena is undergoing major and profound changes, and its alignment in the framework of new and other conflicts, forcing Americans to be on guard against them, in parallel to grab their joints from afar and squeeze their goods..
The American economy suffers greatly from Corona, at a time when the International Monetary Fund speaks of a decline in the global economy, an increase in global contraction and the intensification of trade restrictions. Consider that the world has entered the worst economic recession in 90 years.
This economic recession will be present in the context of the reorganization of the region, along with political interests, and under the roof of the American rush to contain China’s slow progress on the international stage..
What is happening now in the region is part of the maturing of the future influence map. After the Middle East, since the end of World War II, has suffered under the weight of the demands of the conflict with Israel, it is entering new alignments today, under the title of conflict between three poles: Israel, Iran and Turkey. ..
Then Washington will work to extract China from the entire Middle East economic space. It will manage the balance of this fight for several decades on the basis of securing its economic and political interests..
Therefore, it has started to formulate joint agreements with Russia, which will make Syria its focal point. And he is working to prepare the ground to secure the requirements of understanding with Iran, regardless of who wins in the US presidential election. And it will promise not to threaten the existing regime in Iran, but to harmonize with it at times, in exchange for an understanding of the interests of both countries in the region..
Later, Washington may go, under the weight of its economic crisis, to seek to reduce the global price of oil, in exchange for seizing the wealth of marine gas.
For example, he noted that a Turkish economic group tried to tender for the Haifa port investment, after Washington succeeded in pressuring the Israeli government to expel China, which wanted to do so. The company “DP World” intends to submit to this tender, according to the Bloomberg Agency of the United States..
Lebanon, which is directly involved in all these projects, will have almost identical US policy, whoever wins the US presidential race, with the only difference in time and duration..
For this reason, Washington, despite its internal concerns, insisted on the start of negotiations for the demarcation of the Lebanese maritime borders, which would be followed by all the land borders to the south, north and east. But you need a government to monitor what is happening..
This is also why, despite its internal crisis, France is showing interest in the issue of rebuilding the port of Beirut, which is also promoting the birth of a government with the task of fixing the situation..
This is also why Russia wants political stability in Lebanon, especially after Saad Hariri became prime minister, in which Moscow is showing exceptional interest..
The sudden positivity that befell the Lebanese officials and the apparent flexibility of their positions was said to have been accompanied by an external understanding that took place between Paris, Moscow, and Washington, based on the need for Lebanon to obtain a grace period that would allow to fix your inner arena, in order to organize the steps required by the government, and prepare you well for a phase. The negotiations, very similar to the Sykes-Picot stage of the beginning of the last century.
With the reaffirmation that the new reality is to share influence, and to draw a new geopolitical map, without ever violating the existing geographical borders, which were drawn by the Sykes-Picot Agreement, although history and its lessons force us not to exaggerate optimism . After all, we are in Lebanon, where surprises are evident at all times and the special interests of the Lebanese political class always come first.
