Yemen’s truce with Syria and Iraq casts its shadow over Beirut: the rapid birth of the “opposition” government?

The country will enter the “danger zone” later this year. The stampede is most intense on the way to a settlement or an explosion. Here in Beirut, there are those who see an internal trend towards calm, especially with the region entering the orbit of reducing tension. Yemen, an unannounced truce in Marib, preceded by the largest prisoner exchange process between the two parties in conflict since the beginning of the conflict, including the arrival of the new Iranian ambassador, Hassan Erlo, in Sanaa. Iraq, conditional truce in attacks against US forces. Syria, a Turkish withdrawal from the military points in Hama and the visit of a US official with the aim of reaching an “agreement” for the release of American journalist Austin Tice. This is being achieved, while Lebanon announced the start of indirect negotiations with the Israeli enemy on the demarcation of the maritime borders. On the Lebanese calendar, the coming weeks and months will face tough challenges, starting with the American elections, passing through others in Syria, and ending with the Arab-Israeli normalization train. All of them raise questions, notably the question of the fate of the government that Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri is supposed to form, as well as its reform program, its negotiations with the International Monetary Fund and its dealings with the changes in the region and the world. While it is not possible to say with certainty to what extent his birth was linked to the bound path, it will certainly be a useful factor, even if it is not fixed. In the midst of this weather, news is coming in of an Israeli attack in southern Syria, and a drone launched by the Houthis towards Saudi Arabia, and the United States of America continues to use the weapon of sanctions, the last of which was against the Iranian ambassador to Iraq.

It has been shown so far that there was no government in Lebanon before the US elections. However, a series of signs that followed Hariri’s assignment suggest that the political battle between him and the President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, and the head of the “Strong Lebanon” bloc, Deputy Gebran Bassil, will be tedious. in the composition stage, contrary to what the period prior to commissioning suggested. As soon as the Hariri decree was issued until the limit of the fight decreased. Initially, the Speaker of the Parliament, Nabih Berri, confirmed that the atmosphere was optimistic regarding the formation of the government. Then Bassil surprised everyone with his participation in the parliamentary consultations and his meeting with Hariri, noting that he announced at the last meeting of the bloc that he would not do so. Even the statements made by the parties, it seems that the game of counterclaims and conditions can be modified in its rules. Does this have something to do with what is happening in the region? Or is it related to considerations of subjective political forces?
It is not possible to overlook a basic internal factor that combines these forces that push them to round the corners in terms of composition. First, the financial, economic, living and security conditions of the country no longer tolerate the absence of an effective government. In addition to the French initiative, which, it is true, provides “palliative agents” that eliminate the risk of a total collapse, and may be the only way to rescue. But the appearance of a sudden desire to facilitate the birth of the government is also related to the accounts with each party, which would push it to remove obstacles and confront the other, can be summarized as follows:
As for Hezbollah, stability in the country continues to be at the top of the list of internal goals. Chaos and collapse mean it will incur a great cost, especially since its secretary general, Hassan Nasrallah, pledged not to allow Lebanon to starve. At a stage like this, the party will face a great responsibility related to its environment, so if the option is an agreement to guarantee stability that protects all Lebanese and distributes the responsibility to all, then there are no objections. The party knows that a president like Hassan Diab and his government will not change anything about the reality of affairs, and that not a single dollar of aid will enter the country, so Hariri remains a less bad option, even if his opportunity is not there. Guaranteed, but still an opportunity.

Basil was advised not to play Hariri’s game and not to be allowed to oust him from the government.

The President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, wants to save what remains of his mandate. Losing many months to form a government is a waste of time. It is better for his reign to end a government of “forced opposition” than to conclude with “total destruction” at all levels.
– After the failure of several entrepreneurs, mutual friends between Hariri and Bassil to reunite them, the latter took a step back. It was not a withdrawal involving a concession as much as a perception of interest. Finally, Bassil heard advice that “if Hariri is pressuring you to leave the government, do not meet him in the middle of the road, but stay in him and his player from within, and there is someone who will help you.” Also, “whatever you want you can get inside the cabinet, but you’re safe. You won’t get it while you’re out. “Basilio was asked if he wanted to be in the opposition position, and the same question was answered that the opposition would show opposition to the pact and not to the government. Is it necessary to boycott the pact? Not to mention that Aoun he cannot carry out a battle with his signature alone, as there are many files within the House of Representatives, and Aoun needs someone to help him at this stage. As for the presidency of the republic on which Basilio bases all his calculations, it is not “included in personal and permanent rivalries”!
Hariri was, according to Berri, the only acceptable partner within any government. Diab comes and goes, then someone else comes. The President of Parliament remains convinced that the administration with the principal is concealed from the agent. And based on your adherence to the French initiative as the last chance of salvation, it is necessary that you overcome all the complexes in the face of authorship.

It is better for the Aoun era to end a government of “forced opposites” than to end with “total destruction.”

As for Hariri, it means for him to return to the presidency, like breathing in him. There is no political life for Hariri outside of Saraya. The head of the Future Movement wants the chair for reasons related mainly to his sect and his followers. This return allows him to float again and block the way for anyone who wants to enter a partner who speculates against the family or outside of it. As for the wider circle, there is no doubt that he wants to seize the opportunity to dedicate himself to the “de facto leader who has no alternative”, the main element of salvation, partner in the drafting of the decision and representative of the highest Sunnis of the state.
Therefore, the elements of fast composition are present, preceded by Hariri’s desire to do so. If the aforementioned reasons intersect, the declarations of the government of specialists will be just a “pinch of salt” to give it a different flavor. As for behind the scenes, where the government is stitched, it is possible to agree on one similar to the Diab government that includes specialists appointed by the parties, so the agreement on the program remains the basis, especially in regards to the deal with the International Monetary Fund and its terms. Of course, Hariri will not have what he wants from an absolute mandate, but the door is not closed to debate… “Some points on which agreement will be a condition for composition. While others will be deported to the House of Representatives and will be dissected in the General Assembly ”, say the informed circles.

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