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Between the Naqoura tent and the Baabda Palace, the Lebanese political class, with its two parties (loyalty and opposition), is trying to put the finishing touches on a counterrevolution that would turn back the clock before October 17, 2019. To Achieving its objectives of reestablishing the relationship between the majority of its components was based on the adherence of Paris to its initiative and the desire of the administration. The US administration begins negotiations to demarcate the maritime borders with Israel as an opportunity to smuggle a government that will resurrect it.
This border advance came about as a result of external and internal factors. Externally, the stick of sanctions shaken by Washington was one of the most prominent factors in the acquiescence of the ruling class and its acceptance of the start of demarcation negotiations, especially after Washington hinted that the names of the former row were not excluded from the sanctions list, and part of this class wanted to obtain guarantees for a worthy exit from power. What remains of his face is preserved after decades of financial corruption and political monopoly.
Internally, it promotes the return of international confidence in Lebanon and the possibility of helping it emerge from its difficult situation if the authorities agree to form a government that it called an important government, in addition to making promises that the future government will benefit from two things ; The first is the French promises to help Lebanon financially and economically, and the second is the financial liquidity and investments that the energy sector will provide once the demarcation process is complete. These promises were the authority’s tool to exploit the concerns of citizens who have been suspended by the strings of the air and seek a way out, albeit temporary, that frees them from the burden of the living conditions they are experiencing. .
In practice, this class decided to settle scores with the October uprising, taking advantage of the decline in street momentum and the impact of the economic and financial crisis on the public mood, and it is their opportunity to restore the possible political gaps that led to the overthrowing alliances and understandings, and repositioning them according to the new political changes imposed by various factors, as well as because this class is in a hurry to reorder its relationship with its bases and restore its partisan and sectarian homes, considering that those who left these homes or the They did not manage to form alternatives or provide protection and coverage that compensates for the loss of benefits that the sectarian forces gave them, as the power focused on their propaganda discourse. The opposite is to promote that the uprising is not politically in itself, nor does it form leadership frameworks capable of competing with the forces of power and present convincing programs to its audience.
The priorities of the defenders of the counterrevolution are to reformulate authority and reduce the differences and conflicts between its pillars, with the aim of transferring the mandate with the available alliances, and postponing training pending regional and international advancement, an advance most likely in the delusions of this authority that acts as if it were Paris and despite all the levity of the French president in dealing with the repercussions of the explosion of August 4, but he has not abandoned the reform conditions for his initiative, and Washington , which has rushed into the demarcation negotiations, has so far only postponed the imposition of some sanctions rather than their cancellation, and is in no rush to show its good intentions or give up the ruling system, the main of which is Hezbollah. Promises and facilities reward them for their negotiating steps. What they did not get from incentives 10 years ago when the power was strong and the economy stable, Washington will not give you an authority that lives its most difficult predicaments and the economy is destroyed, since these difficult situations provide strength roles to one of the parties to the negotiations to extract concessions from the weaker party.
On the 17th of this month, the uprising entered its second year threatened by a coup that would turn back the clock, and the ruling system would act as if it were capable of achieving it, especially when it seized the tools of power that allow it. control the articulations of the state and the movement of society, and lends a hand while waiting to exchange what guarantees its share of the benefits of power. But the long course of the intifada also holds surprises, especially when the provocation reaches the stage of total denial.
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