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In its latest assessments, the Fund indicated that OPEC Plus member states will face difficult times as the Middle East and Central Asia region will suffer a worse contraction than in 1978.
According to an analysis published by the Oil Price website, by Cyril Weidershoven, these pessimistic expectations are caused by oil prices remaining within the range of $ 40 to $ 50 per barrel through 2021, and these levels will not allow member states of the OPEC + recover.
The report indicated that oil-producing countries would experience negative growth that could reach 6.6 percent, compared with a 1.3 percent contraction in oil-importing countries.
The report indicates that countries such as Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait and even Iran, in addition to Qatar, will see a drop in oil demand, not to mention a 40 percent drop in prices than they were before. of the Corona pandemic.
For example, the equilibrium price set by Saudi Arabia in its budget is $ 80 a barrel, for the year 2021, but expectations have indicated that it will be within the levels of $ 50, as is Iraq, whose budget will be based in the expectation of oil prices at levels of 50 dollars a barrel.
According to the analysis, the economy of Saudi Arabia, the largest in the Arab world, will contract by 5.4 percent this year, while Riyadh says it plans to cut public spending by more than seven percent next year as the budget deficit is expected to increase to 12 percent of GDP. In 2020.
The Price Oil report indicates that “the Fund’s expectations indicate that everyone will suffer from the Corona pandemic, but oil-producing countries will be more affected than others, and that the reports or expectations that speak of the recovery in demand do not they are more than imagination and depend on wishes. “
The report highlights that “the countries that still depend on the stability of their economy on black oil or only on gas, must reestablish their accounts and diversify their resources, so although expectations are not created and the indicators have improved, but it is necessary to think after the crisis that Corona will go away. “
At the level of the Middle East and North Africa, IMF officials said that “the repercussions of the virus may cause” deeper and more continuous economic damage than any previous recession due to the unprecedented nature of the crisis.
Officials indicated that the economic movement in this region will not return to normal until “only after a decade”, adding that oil exporters could suffer a total deficit in their budgets of about $ 224 billion this year.
