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Appoint Saad Hariri to head the government or not. The voices of the “strong Lebanon” bloc are directed towards the presidency, or it is enough not to name them. Options that did not go unnoticed in the last meeting of the block.
Although the decision of the political council in the “Free Patriotic Movement” is limited to its president, Gebran Bassil, the meeting of the bloc, which includes deputies and ministers, witnessed a difference of opinion. The debate centered on the need to go to a government, even if it were its boss, Saad Hariri, because the country could no longer tolerate political crises.
During the meeting of the “Strong Lebanon” bloc last Tuesday, several deputies opposed the bloc leader’s choice not to name Hariri. Or rather, include research on the options available for grouping. The following options were proposed: appoint Saad Hariri, or not, or the president of the republic, casting the votes of the bloc.
While Bassil was tough in his stance in rejecting Hariri’s nomination, several deputies presented their divergent views on Bassil’s decision during the discussion. And some of them felt that there is no time for personal differences amid the limited options available to the prime minister.
Bassil representatives said that “despite the bad experience with Hariri in previous governments, we have no alternative but to cooperate to form a government, amid the current collapse, because the concerns of the people are elsewhere.” Some of them said that the bloc could not deny Hariri and then negotiate government actions with him. The best option in case of anonymity is to go to the opposition, just as the Lebanese forces do. However, the transition from the “strong Lebanon” bloc to the opposition is completely impossible under President Michel Aoun. The most useful thing is to call Hariri and cooperation for the government to succeed, “compassion for the Lebanese.”
The discussion ended with a return to the agreement not to name Hariri, leaving the door open for the President of the Republic to cast the votes. But, what does it mean to deposit the vote of the president of the republic in deputies?
In 1998, several Christian representatives cast their votes in the hands of the then President of the Republic, Emile Lahoud. At the time, the prime minister candidate, Prime Minister Rafic Hariri, saw this as a constitutional violation, so he withdrew from the mandate. Today, it seems that the same idea is on the table with the powerful Lebanese bloc, which will be decided in the next two days.
Those close to the movement say that casting votes for the president of the Republic is not a constitutional violation, since there is no text that prohibits it. Consequently, Hariri is not expected to return and face his father’s post in 98, when Prime Minister Rafik Hariri apologized, after a Christian bloc cast their votes with President Emile Lahoud.
On the other hand, Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s team does not appear to be sparked by such a move. He realizes that Basil’s goal is to embarrass him into getting him out. Consequently, he continued with his candidacy despite the postponement of parliamentary consultations and doubts about his constitutionality. Thus, he will continue nominating him, regardless of the provocation. He realizes that he will become prime minister with about 70 votes and about 19 Christian votes from the Marda, Tashnak, Nationalist and Independent Christian blocs.
Hariri depends on international pressure, not to support him, but to support the acceleration of the formation of an urgent government that implements what is required of him in politics and economics.
On the other hand, the President of the Republic is besieged by the failure of attempts to bridge the gap between Hariri and Bassil, and the impossibility of a new postponement of the parliamentary consultations to appoint a prime minister. He is also aware of the magnitude of the international pressure he faces, and will face its weakening if he chooses to obstruct or postpone … not only through the message conveyed by the Director General of Public Security, Abbas Ibrahim, but also through the Secretary of State of the United States of America, Mike Pompeo, who called Aoun Monday night to discuss American aid. To those affected by the explosion of the port and the demarcation of the borders, without excluding that Pompeo expressed the desire of his country for an urgent Lebanese government that adapts to the magnitude of the changes in Lebanon.
Therefore, the parliamentary consultations will continue as planned next Thursday. Especially after the failure of all French efforts and the efforts of Alaa Al-Khawaja and Nader Al-Hariri to bring together the views of Hariri and Bassil. However, assigning Saad Hariri on Thursday will not mean releasing the government quickly. The Free Patriotic Movement sees in the formation of the government a new “quadruple alliance” against it, different from the form of the quadripartite alliance in 2005.
Will Hariri’s appeasement of the Shiite couple and Walid Jumblatt withdraw against Christians? This is the question that Basil Hariri will ask in consultations with the parliamentary blocs after his appointment.
Hariri’s response specifies whether he will remain subject to his mandate, or will be able to form a government as soon as possible, provided that the President of the Republic, together with the Prime Minister, has the authority to sign the decrees that form the government.
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