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Posted on: Monday, October 19, 2020 – 2:13 PM | Last update: Monday, October 19, 2020 – 2:14 pm
The International Monetary Fund expected today, Monday, that world oil prices will rise to the range of 48 dollars a barrel in the medium term.
In the economic outlook report for the Middle East, North Africa and Central Asia, the Fund stated that despite the expected price increase, the price of black gold remains 25% below its levels in 2019.
The Fund added that the group of oil exporting countries is the most affected by the “double shock” caused by the pandemic, the fall in oil prices and world demand.
He noted that the OPEC + agreement to reduce production in May contributed to maintaining the stability of oil prices and recovering more than 50% of the losses recorded since the end of 2019, and that the current trading price remained below its level in the pre “Covid-19” stage by a percentage. 40%.
He noted that the data shows the collapse of oil revenues during the first half of 2020 by up to 50%, and in the short and medium term, excess supply and large inventories remain a source of existing concern, while the Global demand continues to decline due to declining air travel.
On the growth front, the Fund expected a decline in gross domestic product in the Middle East and Central Asia during 2020, due to the economic and health effects imposed by the emerging virus “Corona”.
And it expected growth in the region to decline 4.4% in 2020 after rising 1.4% in 2019, in light of the continued spread of the “Covid-19” pandemic and its effects on public health. and its high economic cost.
In his report he explained that the countries of the Middle East and Central Asia have taken immediate measures in response to the pandemic with the aim of mitigating and containing the spread of the virus, and the countries have implemented a set of policies to prohibit travel abroad and indoors, closing businesses and schools, as well as adhering to social distancing and the use of masks and gloves.
The Fund expects growth in oil-exporting countries in the Middle East, North Africa and Central Asia to contract by -6.6%, while growth in oil-importing countries is forecast to contract by -1% in 2020.
In its report, the International Monetary Fund expected growth in the Middle East and North Africa region to contract by -5% in 2020, to return to 3.2% in 2021, which are the same rates expected for countries of the Arab world.
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