Without prior approval of the terms of the monetary fund

If nothing happens, then Saad Hariri will be, on Thursday, October 22, 2020, the president in charge of forming the government, after he left his “natural position”, as he said, on October 29, 2019. A year has passed Since the uprising and since the resignation, Hariri tried to sell the rebels, before returning a year later, on the ruins of the uprising, the pound, the economy and the port, without claiming this time that he is one of the stalkers of the ‘revolution ‘as he did when he left. He re-consolidates his position in power, which contributed to the ruin of the country. This time, however, he carries what he sees as the “recipe for salvation” that France wrote and that all parties accepted.

After two days of postponing parliamentary consultations, perhaps the postponement reorganizing the allocation papers, as the Free Patriotic Movement hoped, it quickly became clear that things had not changed. The “forces” also awaited the soul with the same result. According to the information, on the night of the postponement of the consultations, he refused to issue a statement seeking to embarrass Gebran Bassil by stating that he refuses to postpone. What made this move more likely was the wager on Hariri’s apology. However, the latter did not take long to express his support for his candidacy, convinced that it was the last opportunity to embark on the path of international support, which could stop the slide towards the abyss.
In turn, the Free Patriotic Movement decided its position in advance, highlighting that it would not change its opinion on the consultations. He won’t name Hariri, even if he calls Bassil or not. However, tracking sources confirm that Basil has not yet given up. Follow-up sources indicate that he is looking during the days between consultations, which became difficult for the Presidency of the Republic to bear the consequences of his postponement again, persuade his allies to cut the road to Hariri, and appoint Jawad Adra o Jamal Kabbi to form the government. Hezbollah refuses to follow that option. He realizes in advance that he will be doomed, similar to the experience of the Hassan Diab government, which was unable to rally inside or gain support from outside. Therefore, the party realizes that an understanding with Hariri may be the best option at this stage, without this meaning that it has decided to name him in the consultations. As for Hariri, he realizes in advance that the party will not hinder his work, just as he realizes that the parliamentary majority is guaranteed to him, since he gets the votes of his bloc, in addition to the votes of the blocs: development and liberation, the democratic meeting, the consultative meeting, the apostasy, the Tashnak (MP Agoubrado Pakradounian announced that the party will make His decision tomorrow and it will not necessarily be consistent with the position of the powerful Lebanese bloc), as well as independent deputies.
Going to the consultations and assigning the President of the Republic to Saad Hariri to form the government would be to overcome a first dilemma. It was not easy to compose according to all the data. The President of the Republic, who has the second signature in the formation, will seek to compensate what the Free Patriotic Movement has lost from its balance in the cession negotiations. Even if the movement announced that it would be out of government, no one doubts that Basil will have the upper hand in choosing specialist ministers from the Christian community, even if he considers that these are part of the president’s involvement.

The forces and the movement lost the bet for the withdrawal of Hariri

The bilateral movement Amal and Hezbollah will not be an obstacle to authorship. The agreement on Shiite participation has been completed, and Hariri will not object to the two sides appointing nonpartisan ministers of the sect. But the agreement or agreement on the composition does not apply to the government program. Here, according to the information, it seems that the agreement is not implemented. Hariri requested a “blank check” from the powers that be he contacted, in order to grant him the freedom to implement a program with the International Monetary Fund. It is reported to be the last bailout chance, and that is why all those who contact them are asked to make a commitment in advance to moving forward with their government program, which is based primarily on the French initiative and the implementation of the International Monetary Fund program. No one is opposed, in principle, to the French initiative. However, the ten percent, which MP Muhammad Raad previously reported on party reservations, is not only related to the rejection of early parliamentary elections, but also includes some IMF conditions that are not acceptable to him. That is precisely what Hariri wants to commit to. He says tough measures will have to be taken for a time, after which the country will once again recover from its crisis. However, Hariri did not hear a satisfying response from Hezbollah, which is refusing to release Hariri from power, specifically in terms of commitment to what the IMF demands.

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