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Tbilisi (AFP)
Missiles fall, hate speech ignites, the death toll rises and diplomatic efforts fail. Despite a new and fragile truce, the conflict over the breakaway Nagorno Karabakh region after three weeks of fighting appears to be long-lasting.
A new humanitarian ceasefire agreement came into force on Sunday. However, Armenia and Azerbaijan exchange accusations of violating it, similar to what happened in the first truce that was reached under Moscow’s supervision a week ago.
Since September 27, Azerbaijani forces have been trying to regain control of this predominantly Armenian region, which broke away some thirty years ago, leading to a war that left thirty thousand dead.
Since the declaration of a ceasefire in 1994 and despite regular fighting, the unilaterally proclaimed Nagorno Karabakh Republic has enjoyed de facto independence, has the support of Armenia and protects its territories in seven occupied Azerbaijani regions. It seems that this situation is now threatened.
Behind the excuses provided by the propaganda devices for the two camps, the new battles have caused at least hundreds of deaths, perhaps thousands. The number of victims is significant in a region with 140,000 people, half of whom have fled.
And if Azerbaijan, which has better weapons, regained control of some lands, then most of the reinforced Armenian lines held out until now. The Separatists are stationed in the mountains and this is a strategic advantage they have.
However, the cost of Azerbaijani victories is unknown, as Baku does not publish casualty figures. Karabakh authorities say the number of victims is huge.
According to the expert of the Georgia Center for Strategic Analysis, Gila Vasadze, Azerbaijan is still “far from controlling Karabakh”, so this “hot phase of the conflict will last”, except in the case of a breakdown or successful diplomatic pressure.
The failure of the truce of October 10, although it was agreed under the supervision of Russia, the neighboring and powerful country, shows the difficulties faced by the international community to end the fighting, as well as the determination of the two parties in conflict.
Violent speeches
After the collapse of the first ceasefire, the International Crisis Group said that each side appears to be “preparing for an escalation,” noting that “Azerbaijan’s progress is fueling fear and Armenian counterattacks.”
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, who considers the situation “very dangerous”, is determined to fight and calls for “union” to “guarantee the independence” of the separatist region. He also accuses Azerbaijan of being a tool in Turkey’s hand to continue its “extermination,” referring to around 1.5 million Armenians who were killed during the Ottoman Empire.
For his part, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev showed great hostility, describing Armenians as “dogs”, “fascists” and “wild beasts”, after the bombing of the city of Ganja (Ganja) killed 13 civilians.
A climate of war also prevails among the civilian population.
“We are not afraid of a long war, even if it takes a year or more, because our army is much stronger,” says Kamran Karimov, 25, in front of a vandalized shop in Ganja.
“I was 17 years old during the first war. We built everything. Nobody in the world will force us to leave here,” said Gayan Garibian (45 years old), after the bombing of Tal Stepanakert, the capital of the separatist region.
Thanks to its oil resources, Baku was able to arm itself with the help of its main ally Turkey, as well as Russia and Israel. That is why he was counting on a military victory.
Azerbaijan has much more modern equipment than the financially and militarily backed Armenian separatists, a country much poorer than Azerbaijan, which Moscow mainly arms.
The historic mediator in the conflict, the Minsk Group, chaired by Russia, France and the United States, has never been able to resolve the conflict.
Baku wants, after thirty years of status quo, Turkey, which supports its line, to participate more in the talks.
For its part, Armenia denied the “basic principles” of the Minsk group, which stipulate an Armenian withdrawal from Azerbaijani regions in exchange for a future referendum on the status of the region.
In this context, Moscow, which is bound by a military treaty in Yerevan, has drawn a red line. If the conflict crosses the Nagorno-Karabakh borders and Armenia is directly under fire, the Kremlin will fulfill its “obligations” and offer its help to Yerevan.
And expert Gila Vasadze believes that the only hope for peace is for the West, after decades of procrastination, to address this conflict “as a priority.”
Im-ai / um / aa
© 2020 AFP
