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Inas Sharri wrote in Asharq Al-Awsat:
A year has passed since October 17, when the spark of an uprising broke out that took the Lebanese to the streets in numbers that the squares do not know except in movements of a sectarian or partisan nature. At that time, the Lebanese from north to south demanded a change in the political class, the accountability of the corrupt and the recovery of the stolen money, raising the slogan “everyone means everyone”, indicating that all parties that participated in the power are responsible for the deterioration of the living situation.
This uprising is no longer with the momentum it was launched on. Most of the squares that were called “Squares of the Revolution” are empty, in which some activists meet from time to time to oppose the decision of a minister, the behavior of a president or the decision of a bank without the ability to mobilize citizens and bring them together or even present a vision. They were united at a time when the economic crisis hit the Lebanese day after day.
And if the WhatsApp rate hike last October unleashed the uprising, then “many sparks” appeared in a year, as “the collapse that was imminent at that time has become a living reality today,” according to the economist. Walid Abu Suleiman, speaking of important variables. Monetary, financial and economic.
In an interview with Asharq Al-Awsat, Abu Suleiman affirms that Lebanon, one year after the October 17 uprising, is today “a country suffering a four-dimensional monetary, political, economic and financial crisis”, adding of course ” a threat to health and food security due to the shortage of foreign exchange necessary to import food and medicine.
Abu Suleiman talks about basic variables, the first of which is cash. Today, there are three dollar prices: the official rate (1515 pounds), the bank withdrawal rate (3900), and the black market price, which has hit 10,000 more than once and is currently in the range. of 8000, and this phenomenon is considered an ‘indicator’. It negatively reflects chaos and crisis. ‘
And there is the financial variable, “the state’s income decreased by 50% during the year, and this will be reflected in the state’s budget deficit, especially since its expenses have not decreased because it continues with its obligations to public sector employees. and the import of fuel from Lebanon. “
On the economic level, Abu Suleiman points out that the unemployment rate has increased from 30% to 40%, noting that it exceeds this percentage in certain regions, in addition to the increase in the number of people below the poverty line in Lebanon, which It added about a million people last October and today there are more than 2 million people, more than double.
There is a decrease in GDP of at least 30%, the closure of several commercial and tourist institutions, and the arrival of the banking sector, which was the backbone of the economy, on the verge of bankruptcy, adding to all these factors the pandemic of the Crown.
Despite all this, most of the groups involved in the movement do not expect broad citizen participation on the first anniversary of today’s uprising.
“We will not see a scene on October 17, 2019 for sure,” said Anthony Douaihy, one of the founders of the “Bidaya Watan” group, which is actively involved in the movement, and talks with Asharq Al-Awsat about many obstacles preventing them from people descend on the memory of the uprising in figures that were revealed last October. With his claim that the word “remember” is not used because the uprising, as he sees it, “goes on and never stops.”
Al-Douaihy mentions the Corona pandemic and the decision to close a series of areas that were considered gathering places for the uprising, as factors that may prevent people from coming down to celebrate the anniversary of the uprising, but does not deny the existence of another reason. , which is the fact that the groups of the movement do not “present a proposal that gives confidence to the people and is a substitute for Presenting Authority”, highlighting that the different groups have become aware of this point and “are working to overcome it offering alternatives to people ”.
Douaihy believes that the uprising “brought down the sectarian leadership and broke the fear and the titles until it managed to raise the slogan (all means all). However, the change needs a long breath, especially if it is in the face of a system that permeates to all institutions and against an authority that ruled for 30 years. “
Ahmed Ismail, an activist from the Nabatiyeh movement (South Lebanon), points to the same factors: Since the Crown epidemic and the lack of a unified vision among the collectives, as obstacles for people to take to the streets to commemorate the 17 October, but considers that “the economic and social reality of the loss of medicines, fuels and basic products, and the rise in prices, especially in the case of the elimination of subsidies for basic materials. “He will again push people to the streets.”
Ismail believes that the southern movement is of special importance, as “it knew how to break fear and show voices that were not apparent before October 17, especially against the parties that controlled the region (Hezbollah and Amal Movement), based on the concept of citizen rights and duties of authority ”. Ismail – “The continuation of the southern movement is a basic and vital requirement for the continuation of the whole movement.”
Ismail explains that as long as the political and economic situation remains unchanged, the southern movement will continue and its momentum will increase “because regional parties and participation in power will not be able to give convincing justifications to the public for the causes of their suffering.”
The lift is outside the criteria of failure and success
For his part, the activist of the October 17 uprising and university professor Basil Saleh believes that it “is not subject to the criteria of pessimism, optimism, success and failure.” It is an event that occurred in a “cumulative context of confrontation with the authority from which the stations of the 2011 movement emerged, whose objective was to overthrow the sectarian system and then the 2015 movement, which The garbage crisis was caused by the fact that we got to October 2019 ”. In an interview with Asharq Al-Awsat, Saleh considered that the momentum of the movements during the previous seasons was in a context of escalation, and this is a natural result of the authority’s intolerance in corruption and looting of the state and its inability to find solutions to crises besetting citizens. The objection to the taxation policy and the mentality of reaching into the pockets of the people, and succeeded in overthrowing the government, that is, it achieved what it set out to do.
In this context, he considers that the momentum of the uprising receded after the overthrow of the government, in addition to other factors such as “the Crown, violence exercised by the authorities against protesters without accountability, and the inability of the forces of change to establish a political front with a clear project and with a decentralized organizational capacity expanded in the regions “. Considering that “there will definitely be later confrontations with the authorities, which will be more radical, because the regime has ended and what remains are the forces of the system that are trying to reproduce it.”
On land, various groups prepare for activities commemorating the anniversary of October 17 in various places that were known as the squares of the revolution. In the north, a march will start from the city of Tripoli to Qurna al-Blacka, with stops at various stations and areas. In Beirut, there will be celebrations at Jal El Dib squares (East Beirut), Riad El Solh and Al Shuhada (central Beirut), and rallies at the Central Bank.
And in the south, there will be a march in Tire, activities and celebrations in Nabatiyeh and Sidon, as well as in the city of Baalbek (east) and Aley (Mount Lebanon), noting that several groups resorted to postponing the celebration due to the epidemic of Crown.
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