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Journalist “Ishan Tharoor” discusses the outcome of the US elections in the Middle East in an article he wrote for The Washington Post, in which he says the results may not mean much to the peoples of the region.
But the matter is completely different for many of the regimes there, from the first areas of the ongoing wars in Syria, Yemen and Libya, and through the disintegrated states of Lebanon and Iraq, in the opinion of the writer, the victory of Donald Trump. Again or his Democratic opponent, the former Vice President and Biden won’t mean much to them.
Both the Trump administration and the Biden administration, which served as vice president in the previous administration, witnessed the interlocking conflicts in the region, and neither of them were able to resolve anything. Instead, US air campaigns intensified and US forces remained deployed in many countries, despite Washington’s declared desire to secede from the Middle East.
But Biden and Trump represent markedly different futures for some of the region’s political elites, especially the leadership in Israel and a group of oil-rich Arab countries.
They supported Trump when he halted US involvement in the Iran nuclear deal by reimposing sanctions and invoking a “maximum pressure” campaign on the Tehran regime.
Some also responded to Trump’s new focus on the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, which has become entirely in the interest of the Israeli right. Although these efforts met with the ire of the Palestinians, they were met with silent protests from Arab leaders elsewhere.
But on both fronts, the regimes and the people of the Middle East, the victory of the Democrats in November may lead to dramatic change, as the Biden administration will seek to repair the damage done by Trump in the nuclear deal and defuse tensions with Iran. .
This will curb close US support for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and at the same time Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, according to the writer.
Trump and the Middle East
The US president and his allies claim that in a few years the administration has accomplished more politics in the Middle East than its predecessors have accomplished in decades. This includes two agreements to normalize relations between the UAE and Bahrain with Israel.
But it is unclear whether many of the other Arab states will follow the lead of these two small states that were not, in fact, at war with the Jewish state.
However, the diplomatic advance confirms a changing reality in the Middle East, according to the author, in which various Arab powers may see it in their interest to forge a joint alliance with Israel in the face of an intransigent Iran and an increasingly indifferent United States.
In a recent poll, the majority of Israelis said they would prefer Trump over Biden in the White House. This is not surprising, as Trump presented a series of political gifts to Netanyahu, including recognition of Israeli sovereignty over Jerusalem and the Golan Heights without any concessions to the Palestinians in return.
And his “peace plan,” which was vehemently rejected, and has been flatly rejected by the Palestinians, may lay the groundwork for Israel’s annexation of parts of the West Bank.
But Netanyahu faces heated legal and political battles at home, with some Israeli experts pointing out that Trump’s close association with the Israeli prime minister did not actually serve Israeli interests.
Likewise, the Trump administration damaged the Iranian economy with sanctions, but the maximum pressure failed to stop Iranian adventures in neighboring countries, and caused the erosion of the safeguards against the Iranian nuclear bomb that the Obama administration had achieved.
So far, Iranian officials have scoffed at the prospect of negotiations with the Trump administration, and all indications are that next year’s elections in Iran will boost militants in the country.
Biden and the Middle East
While Iranian officials state in their remarks that no matter who wins the US election, there is a recognition within Iran that the Biden administration will seek to revive the nuclear deal and, to do so, will have to lift some of the stifling sanctions now imposed on the Iranian economy.
Oil analysts expect Iran to soon start exporting up to 2 million barrels a day if Biden replaces Trump.
“Most of the Iranian people and the Iranian elite prefer Biden to come to power, but there are differences,” Ali Amidi, professor of political science at the University of Isfahan, told the Atlantic Council, referring to the existence of militant camps that have obtained political benefits due to escalating tension with the Trump administration.
Biden said it would offer Iran a “credible path to diplomacy” and would likely garner greater support from European allies, who have spent the past few years desperately trying to stem the momentum of Trump’s devastating dance on the world stage.
Despite welcoming the rapprochement between the UAE and Israel, Biden vowed to “reassess” relations with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and appears to give weight to US intelligence reports linking Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. with the murder of the Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi.
Biden says he will heed calls from Congress to end military support for the Saudi-led war in Yemen, although this support started from the Obama administration.
Experts believe that Biden’s presidency will raise the Palestinian issue more than any previous administration in an attempt to revive the moribund prospect of a two-state solution.
