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The World Bank expects the number of people living in extreme poverty worldwide to rise to between 88 million and 115 million in 2020 and 150 million in 2021, but these figures do not include Lebanon because the latest statistical data available on the matter They date back to 2011, which means that replacing commodity import subsidies with a program targeting the poor will not be effective.
The Al-Akhbar newspaper wrote in today’s issue that extreme poverty is about to increase for the first time in 20 years, according to a recent World Bank report titled “Poverty and Shared Prosperity.” The report does not conclude the causes, but indicates that poverty rates have slowed since 2015, and then the Covid-19 pandemic came to trigger a change in the path that “will take us back 10 years.” According to the bank’s allegations, the fight against poverty was decreasing annually at a rate of 1% between 1990 and 2015, but despite the exit of 52 million people from the cycle of poverty between 2015 and 2017, the rate of decline was less than 0.5% during this period, then the Corona virus appeared with its repercussions. In world economies to turn the tide towards a significant increase in the number of poor, including a significant increase in the segment living on less than $ 1.9 a day.
Fight against ‘relative’ poverty
At first glance, the report leaves the impression that the World Bank has pioneered the fight against poverty around the world towards its ultimate elimination, but an analysis of the data indicates that declining poverty rates across the world world implies an important reason related to the decline in the number of poor in China, which represents the greatest weight in terms of numbers. Population. In other words, any major change in the number of poor people in China will have a positive change in the total number around the world.
But the World Bank prefers to dodge. It indicates that the concentration of the poor has increased in several countries such as sub-Saharan Africa due to climatic factors such as floods, and in the Middle East, where armed conflicts have increased. He concludes that “in poor countries, conditions do not improve to the same extent in middle- and high-income countries, increasing the differences between these communities.” In other words, the bank recognizes that its contribution to the fight against poverty is not effective in the poor country, unlike in other countries.
This is evidenced in the “common prosperity index” prepared by the bank, which expresses an improvement in the standard of living and an increase in the share of resources between social classes. In upper-middle-income countries, “prosperity” was 2.9%, in high-income countries it was 2.7%, while in lower-middle-income countries it was 1.8% and in low-income countries was 0.2%.
However, the World Bank believes that the Covid-19 pandemic will cause a shift in the demographics of poverty, affecting urban areas rather than concentrating them in rural areas. “Between 2015 and 2018, the proportion of the rural poor population increased. Of every 5 people living below the poverty line, 4 live in rural areas ”, but poverty will increase in urban areas with concentrated populations (overcrowded because they are more vulnerable to closures and the spread of the epidemic). Likewise, the bank estimates that world GDP will contract between 5% and 8% and that its impact will be greater in countries with high poverty rates. “The world is on the brink of a period in which income inequality will increase if intervention is not made through supportive policies for the poor that take into account the change in the composition of the poor. ».
Lebanon: 45%
In this context, the hands of the World Bank are clearly visible in Lebanon. Years ago, it adopted a program aimed at the poor and quickly exploited clients without any real effectiveness (the bank cannot issue results on improving the situation of the poor in Lebanon), and today it is promoting price liberalization of imported subsidized goods and replacing them with a targeted program to support the poor that will be no different from its predecessor. As a clientelist tool to buy political loyalties. But the biggest problem with this program is that it will not be directed in the strictest sense. The report issued by the World Bank does not mention any data on the poor in Lebanon because the available statistical data dates back to 2011, and it does not even depend on estimates from the World Bank office in Lebanon that indicate that poverty rates will rise to 45% (3 million, including 1.7 million in 2020). Extreme poverty rates will rise to 22% (1.5 million, including 685,000 in 2020).
Therefore, no support mechanism will be effective in combating poverty in Lebanon, but will reinforce the channels of politico-clientelist classification of poverty and the poor. And since the World Bank works in an integrated framework with its brother, the International Monetary Fund, everything that it proposes or promotes will not be out of the “way” of price liberalization, first of all the exchange rate of the lira against the dollar. , then privatizing state assets and handing them over to the private sector, and reducing the public sector like a hemorrhage. From public financial resources … As a result, there will be more inequality in income and wealth, and Lebanon will be no different from those countries that sink into poverty and are not affected by the improvements of the World Bank and its brother “Background”, even if the control tools are different in shape, but the results will not be different. . Lebanon is sinking into rural poverty, and its urban cities will be hit by poverty due to the financial-monetary-banking collapse, and above the Crown pandemic. As for everything the World Bank does, it is promoting a $ 200 million loan to Lebanon to increase the effectiveness of clients’ tools and increase their dollar debts as well.
Source: News
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