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As the French initiative has been emptied of its content with Mustafa Adib, Saad Hariri’s “initiative” will be emptied of its content in his negotiations to form a government. His path will not be easy to pave to become Prime Minister Designate. And even if it were commissioned, the path of songwriting would not be easy by any means.
The ingredients to abort the Hariri initiative before it was born have been made available with great seriousness, unless the man agrees to drop a lot from the ceiling that Mustafa Adeeb apologized for at his borders. The first right that Hariri will face, hours before his alleged assignment, are the demonstrations of the General Union of Workers and the drivers unions (and the political loyalty of these “unions” is known). The title of the demonstrations refused to raise support and all financial policies. This implies, and in the political messages, the rejection of any condition of the International Monetary Fund.
In any case, Saad Hariri will initiate his political consultations and contacts in search of consensus on his name. He presents himself as the godfather of the French initiative, in a way in which all powers have a choice to march through it or reject it. There is conflicting information on the reality of the positions of what Hariri announced. Some believe that the signs of an agreement between him and Gebran Bassil may return him to prime minister. And that, based on two main factors. The first is the border demarcation negotiations. The second is a French desire to replicate the presidential agreement that was a French creation in 2016. But even that will not be easy given Hezbollah’s position.
On the other hand, there is other data that reveals that Aoun has not yet agreed to assign Saad Hariri, and is still looking for a prime minister, either by returning to Mustafa Adeeb or appointing someone else. This move by Aoun could be part of the pressure on Hariri to blackmail him and force him to make the necessary concessions. Shortly after Hariri’s initiative, some parties worked to take Aoun’s pulse, who said: “They agreed on a prime minister with Gebran Bassil.” The person responded, asking, “What if Hariri agreed?” Aoun replies, “Hariri, I will not object. But I will put my conditions in front of him, and if he agrees, we will follow him. If he does not agree, we will not accept.” Aoun’s conditions will not change. The first is that Saad’s presence in government requires Gibran’s presence. The data also indicates that Aoun will not back down on the principle of holding Riad Salameh accountable and firing him at all costs. The information indicates that part of the French airspace that surrounds Macron is a partner in this operation, due to Salameh’s position in Lazar. This is an environment opposite to that of the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the French Central Bank.
Once assigned to Hariri, the conditions against him, those of Hezbollah and those of Michel Aoun and Gebran Bassil, will be lifted. Hizbullah will be clear in starting negotiations by joining the Finance Ministry, without any “one-time” related words. Second, the party will elect the Shiite ministers. And third, the bags. This is the only point where the duo can be resistant except for the Ministry of Finance.
The other conditions are related to the ministerial declaration and the refusal to withdraw any advance declaration. The party will be willing to include the word “resistance” in the statement. Furthermore, all this cannot be separated from other economic conditions, from which Hezbollah will proceed based on the position of its secretary general, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, rejecting the conditions of the IMF, rejecting the issue of liberalization of the exchange rate of the lira, reject any new tax, and all the points that the IMF wants to impose. . Here, you must ask yourself a real question: Can Hariri accept these conditions? And if he accepted, would there be American approval for his government? Can you walk with that option?
If Hariri accepts these conditions, then he has resigned from all his previous positions. So it would definitely be difficult for him to make these concessions. And if you did not succeed and fail, you will have suffered a severe blow after you backed down and forgot all your previous refusal to form a government, and showed your will to form it … and did not succeed. The next days prior to the consultations will be full of contacts and consultations.
There are those who rule out the possibility of reaching an agreement before the date of the consultations. In the event that an agreement is not possible, the consultations next Thursday morning will face the fate of postponement.
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