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About six months ago, Turkey and Russia agreed to halt major combat operations in northern Syria, ending a Russian-backed bombing campaign that displaced more than a million people in the border region with Turkey after months of fighting.
The agreement between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin also defused the military confrontation between them, after Ankara sent thousands of soldiers to Idlib province to prevent Russian-backed forces from achieving new ones. advances.
But last Friday, a Turkish military convoy and more than 25 armored vehicles and trucks carrying logistics supplies entered the northwestern governorate of Idlib to reinforce Turkish military points in the region.
There were no immediate comments from Moscow or Damascus.
Erdogan’s Vows
Erdogan promised to continue military operations in Syria “if Turkey does not fulfill the promises made to it,” emphasizing that the situation in Idlib governorate will remain as it is.
On Saturday, Erdogan said: “We will go alone to clean up the hiding places of terrorism in Syria if the promises they made us are not kept,” according to the semi-official Anatolia News Agency.
He continued: “The parties that are silent about the terrorist organizations and the states that support them, set aside all moral, legal and human rights principles when it comes to Turkey.”
Turkey has taken control of some northern border cities in recent years, with cross-border incursions to scare away fighters from the Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG), which Ankara considers a terrorist group.
Russian nuisance
Navar Saban, a military analyst at the Omran Center for Strategic Studies in Istanbul, believes that the Turkish military reinforcement will unsettle Russia because the Kremlin expects Turkey to reduce its military presence in Syria, especially in the area south of the M4 highway, which runs parallel. to the Turkish-Syrian border.
He told “Arab News”: “Russia has started allowing the” regime “to mobilize some of its forces in the area south of the main M4 road. There will be no major military confrontation, but there may be some artillery strikes from of the “regime” on the location of forces. Turkish “.
The number of Turkish military vehicles in the region is estimated to have exceeded 9,750 in the last seven months.
Russia had refused to carry out any new joint patrols in light of instability in the region. The last joint military exercises of the Turkish and Russian forces were recently held in Idlib on September 21.
The following day, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov announced that the two countries will resume joint patrols in northern Syria when the situation stabilizes after the attacks by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the militant group in the northwestern Syria, at the Russian Hmeimim air base.
UK-based Syrian affairs researcher Kyle Orton said the Turkish military rally in Idlib aims to send a message that Ankara will not give up on the remaining parts of the province.
“Turkey has ceded more territory than expected, certainly more than many of its Syrian representatives expected. But the Turkish government has a real red line, it needs a buffer zone to keep terrorists and refugees away from Turkey.”
He believes that the recent Turkish military reinforcements are a response to signals from Damascus and Iran of a possible attack on Idlib, indicating that Ankara will resist any such action.
He continued: “The Russians are unlikely to be very concerned about Turkey’s actions. Moscow is satisfied with leaving Turkey with Idlib, but it cannot control Assad and the Iranian regime, and its ultimate goal is to take back every inch of Syria.”
