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… The new government may be formed within a few weeks, will not be formed before the US presidential elections, and may never be born until the dust of the conflict between Washington and Tehran has settled.
3 Scenarios No one in Beirut has the ability to say which of them will be Lebanon, caught between the hammer of financial-economic suicide to be pushed in the absence of the political umbrella that allows a landing with the least damage in the abyss, and between the anvil of eradicate the remaining pillars of the state that dissolves in He underestimated the important regional conflict, and the failure of the governance mechanisms in it puts him in front of a compensation based on: o changes in the “operating system” through modifications under the roof of the Republic of Taif, or a change in the political system to accommodate the “surplus of power” that Hezbollah surpasses the other Lebanese components. .
The most evident of the tragedy and darkness of the scene was the description given by experienced political circles, which went on to talk about the Lebanese forces becoming the “corpse” of an economy hit by financial-monetary collapse, and playing with the flames of a political crisis that has reached the point of making the country hostage to what appears to be an internal victory that plays with it. An international fiduciary administration “still takes into account the requirements not to” bomb “Lebanon, and does not see the great epidemic risk posed by” Corona “, which is being” exploited “with its serial registrations (around 1,300 per day ), the health sector already burdened by financial stagnation.
While Lebanon, starting today, enters an experiment that is the largest in terms of the complete closure of 111 localities in which the Coronavirus registered disturbing figures, on the political front a no less worrying impression prevails about the transformation of the French initiative that calls for the formation of an independent government that political forces do not call them a “field of experiments”. In light of the summaries of its first version, which was folded with the apology of the president-designate Mustafa Adib without giving up on his objectives of urging the Lebanese to launch the reform train through a ministerial alignment whose mission is also to “link in the cold ”with the scene of the great settlements when the hour strikes.
Informed circles expressed fear of the “October of surprises”, which increased the level of “shortness of breath” in it regionally and internationally with the injury of President Donald Trump with “Corona” and the potential effects on his health as well as on the entire race for the White House, not to mention the expansion of the patches of tensions in the region and the eastern Mediterranean all the way. To the Caucasus, while Lebanon is mired in complete “blindness” on the result of the second attempt of the French initiative, for which President Emmanuel Macron set a period of between 4 and 6 weeks to act, amid characteristics of maneuvers reciprocal and attempts to exploit developments with external dimensions to push towards a government in accordance with the previous rules and standards. Paris efforts.
In this context, circles noted that, due to internal resentment towards a new waiting game, there are signs of an attempt to use early take-off (on the 14th of this month) for negotiations on the demarcation of the maritime borders between Lebanon. and Israel with US mediation and UN patronage, which the Shiite duo “Hezbollah” launched – Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri in a “deliberate” time, with the aim of extracting a government formation that takes into account the “lines red “marked by Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and” demarcated “based on the failure of the two governments of President Hassan Diab (the majority forces) and the government of the Independents of the French edition, which the party considered a cover for the coup against the election results. From the decision-making circle the moment Americans “pounce” on him.
It was not fleeting in the opinion of these circles that a leak close to the team on March 8 said that the start of the demarcation negotiations and the possibility of reaching their conclusion in 6 months (according to this leak) require a “political and political government. national “that provides a stable environment at home that casts a shadow over the negotiating path and keeps up with attempts to reach an agreement with the IMF. The international community seeks a rescue package, with the suggestion that the “demarcation paper” is the most valuable to Washington, which contained implicit messages that facilitating this file, despite its transfer to the mandate of President Michel Aoun, depends to reduce the exterior and the United States, especially the hard line towards the party and its allies, and its participation in the new government.
While Berri was meeting this Saturday with this climate, he expressed what was reported about the framework agreement on the issue of demarcation and said: “This is a necessary step, but it is not enough, and it must be accompanied by the formation of a government as required. as soon as possible in order to save the country from its crises and implement what was expressed in the declaration of an agreement. The framework is literal, and it is an agreement to draw the borders, no more, no less, and enough sale of water in the Al-Saqayen neighborhood ”. The same circles questioned the possibility of any imminent penetration into the government record, first in light of the absence of signs of change in Washington’s steadfastness in the path of Hezbollah’s “strangulation”. With sanctions and narrowing the margins of its use of institutions and the environment of corruption that consumes it to enable its control and control over decision-making articulations and nurture its military arm that extends to more than one scenario, and secondly to the difficulty of conceiving a withdrawal of Lebanese forces in their rivalry with Hezbollah or non-ally to yield to a government ruled by rejection. Then the general crisis in the country will deepen.
In this context, the proposal that is being discussed about a techno-political government of 20 ministers, including six politicians representing the six main sects and political forces, is approached as a matter of more “cutting times” pending the outcome of the elections. Americans, while circles perceive that it is this proposal. He will remain a prisoner of the same complications that aborted the attempt to achieve the “government of the 14 independent specialists” headed by Adib, specifically in terms of whom he calls (the Shiite duo insisted on the Ministry of Finance as a matter of statutes and appointing their ministers) and the need to take the opinion of the majority parliamentary blocs.
Although sources from the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) denied what MTV promoted, according to US sources, that the investigations into the explosion of the port of Beirut include in their conclusions that “Beirutshima was an intentional act”, so that all Eyes are on Tomorrow awaits a pilot retreat between Aoun, Berri and Diab during their transfer together to Kuwait to express their condolences to the late Emir Sheikh Sabah Al-Ahmad, especially after the negative signals that appeared on the Aoun-Berri line after they the latter assumed the announcement of the framework agreement on maritime demarcation and the departure of the “lost friendship” between the two men again In the spotlight.
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