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Lebanon gave the green light to initiate a framework agreement to demarcate land and sea borders with Israel, after years of US efforts and efforts to resolve the crisis.
On Thursday, the Speaker of the Lebanese Parliament, Nabih Berri, announced that negotiations with Israel on the demarcation of land and sea borders, under the auspices of the United Nations, will begin in mid-October.
The Lebanese presidency also welcomed the achievement of a “framework agreement”, hoping that Washington would continue with a fair mediation between the two parties.
Lebanon is immersed in a conflict with Israel over an area of the Mediterranean, of about 860 square kilometers, known as Zone N ° 9, rich in oil and gas, and Beirut announced in January 2016 the start of the first round of licenses for exploration in it.
The Lebanese and Israeli maritime borders did not witness military conflicts similar to the land borders, as Hezbollah controls the southern Lebanon region bordering Israel, and from time to time there are tensions due to “attempts by party fighters to trespass. the borders, “as Israel described.
The measure raises doubts about its importance in terms of the recognition of Israel by Lebanon, the possibility of disarming Hezbollah, the link between the measure and the normalization of the UAE and Bahrain and the conversation about secret negotiations to normalize Syria, as well as the reasons why Washington is willing to accept, especially at this time.
Lebanese Confession
Political analyst Munir al-Rabie believes that “the framework agreement he announced is, in one way or another, a concession from Lebanon to accept direct negotiations with the Israeli enemy.”
It says: “Nabih Berri (Speaker of Parliament), in his announcement, used the term Israel, and did not use the entity of the enemy or the occupied Palestinian territories, but rather the Israeli borders, and this is an indication of a major change in the Lebanese position “.
He attributes the reasons for Lebanon’s agreement to start negotiations to “the American and Israeli attacks, the intensification of economic attacks and crises that Lebanon is experiencing and the salvation of the crises.”
And he warned that “the negotiation path will be arduous and long, and is linked to the position of Hezbollah and Iran on the United States,” noting that “the bet remains until after the US elections and reaching a US-Iranian agreement, and if an agreement is reached, the border demarcation process will be easier. “
The expedient of demarcation of the borders between Israel and Lebanon is among the top priorities of the US administration, especially before the presidential elections scheduled for next November.
Hezbollah weapon
On the disarmament of Hezbollah in light of the demarcation of the borders, Al Rabeeh said that “The United States and Israel will present various conditions during the negotiation sessions, such as Hezbollah’s weapons, precision missiles and the scope of work of the international emergency forces “.
These conditions will be related to oil and gas exploration, as it needs stability and stability cannot be provided in the presence of weapons, so the weapons must be withdrawn, according to the spring.
On the other hand, the writer and political analyst (close to Hezbollah), Qasim Kassir, believes that “what was announced is a framework agreement, and that the negotiations will take a long time.”
“As long as the enemy carries out attacks, there will continue to be resistance and the option of confrontation, while the demarcation of the borders does not contradict the right to resist,” Kassir said.
The demand to disarm Hezbollah has been raised, from time to time, during protests that have taken place in the Lebanese street, since October 2019.
Retired Brigadier General Elias Hanna believes that “the majority of Hezbollah members are on the sanctions list,” making it difficult for sanctions to be eased in light of the delimitation of the borders.
On September 17, the US Treasury announced the imposition of sanctions against two companies and an official in Lebanon, for their association with Hezbollah.
Hanna emphasizes that “at this time, there are no positive repercussions (of the negotiations) on the Lebanese economy”, adding: “To move towards gas exploration, the process will take a long time, and entry to the club of producing countries it must be at least 5 years old. “
As for the visit of the US Undersecretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, David Schenker, to Lebanon in mid-October, Hanna believes it will “facilitate the negotiations.”
The normalization of Syria
Brigadier General Khaled Hamadeh, the file on the demarcation of the maritime and land borders between Lebanon and Israel, is not separated from all the historical files that the US administration is carrying out on the Arab-Israeli conflict.
“We have seen normalization agreements between the UAE and Bahrain, and we know through the media that more than one country is preparing to end the state of conflict with Israel, including Syria, which has made its way, although secretly, so the border and the oil dossier are inseparable, “Hamadeh said.
Regarding the acceleration of the negotiation file, Hamadeh believes that it is “related to the economic crisis, from which the French initiative tried to get Lebanon out of it, but it seems that the political settlement that was on the table did not bear fruit, so that the US agreement can move towards the resolution of the crisis from the border demarcation gate. “
He added: “There was a proposal from Ambassador Frederick Hoff (2012) (from the US envoy between Lebanon and Israel), who presented a concept of dividing the disputed distance between Lebanon and Israel at a rate of two thirds for Lebanon and one-third for Israel “, suggesting that” this equation is in effect. “
He believes that the border demarcation file will reflect positively on Lebanon and Israel, saying: “When there is an international consensus on border demarcation, this means that companies will rush to explore, invest, and develop existing gas deposits. , which constitutes an outlet to directly support the Lebanese economy. “
And he emphasizes that “the demarcation of the border, if it occurs, will end the Arab-Israeli conflict, of which Lebanon is one of its causes, but Lebanon will not end this file, since it will have no end in Syria.”
Ineffective negotiations
As for the member of the Development and Liberation Bloc (headed by Nabih Berri), Deputy Muhammad Nasrallah, believes that “the negotiations are not new, but they are 10 years old, and 4 US envoys have rotated to negotiate with President Berri, to reach a conclusion”.
Deputy Nasrallah clarifies that “the framework agreement is nothing more than a road map to start serious negotiations to fully demarcate the land and sea, and this agreement is based on foundations based on the agreements of 1996 and 1701 under the banner of the United Nations “.
The April 1996 Understanding, an informal written agreement between Israel and the Lebanese Hezbollah, was reached thanks to diplomatic efforts by the United States, which ended the 1996 military conflict between the two parties.
Meanwhile, the Security Council adopted Resolution 1701, on August 11, 2006, calling for the cessation of all hostilities between Lebanon and Israel.
The total volume of Lebanese offshore oil reserves is estimated at 865 million barrels and gas at 96 trillion cubic feet.
Lebanon is suffering from a severe economic crisis, exacerbated by the political turmoil afflicting the country, and total public debt reached $ 86.2 billion in the first quarter of 2019, according to official figures.
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