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Tony Issa wrote in Al-Gomhoria: It is not simple that the agreement to start demarcation negotiations with Israel is easier than the agreement to appoint a finance minister in Lebanon, for example, the resumption of negotiations with the International Monetary Fund. and the consideration of the French friend Macron. The most interesting thing is that agreeing to negotiate demarcation with Israel seems easier than agreeing to negotiate demarcation with Syria, from the “North Sea”, where the blocs intertwine as in the south, to the volatile borders in the Hermel Hills and the rest of the Bekaa … down to the “secret of secrets”. », Shebaa Farms!
Between May and June of last year, Ambassador David Satterfield, the United States Under Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, continued the grueling trips between Lebanon and Israel, trying to create a gap that would initiate demarcation negotiations, to Even though his mission was officially over and Ambassador David Schenker was named his successor months earlier..
The Americans had limited their negotiations in Beirut to President Nabih Berri, since 2018, and were convinced that their proximity to Hezbollah would allow for practical and implementable decisions. However, the “party” atmosphere was not ripe for such a movement, especially at the level of the conflict between the United States and Iran, so Satterfield’s mission faltered..
At the time, the US official was reported to have addressed stakeholders in Beirut in a firm tone, blaming them for obstructing the deal and the possible repercussions. In September 2019, Schenker began his field mission between Lebanon and Israel..
A month later, the event turned into the October 17 uprising and the fall of the government of Prime Minister Saad Hariri. During the government of Prime Minister Hassan Diab, the southern border file prevailed, and the files Shankar manages in Lebanon were mixed between the interior and the borders. But the American mediator was eager to inform Lebanon of Washington’s desire to breach this file before the end of this year..
The Lebanese response to US efforts has been slow. It is more likely that President Michel Aoun tried to score a point in his favor with the Americans, by announcing his desire to put the file in their custody. But the international mediators are most likely comfortable keeping the file in Shiite hands, because negotiating with the original is easier..
Suddenly the port exploded and things sped up. A day later, spokesperson Nabih Berri announced that the final touches were being completed on the negotiating file. This came as Lebanon slides down into the worst financial, monetary, economic and social collapse, and the rounds of US sanctions that sow confusion and terror among the pillars of power..
Observers say: The US mediator acted heavily in favor of Lebanon and did not directly use the weapon of sanctions to force Lebanon to come to the negotiating table. But the people in power themselves know that the margins they have are very narrow.
Lebanon needs the American sponsor, not only to support the military, security and institutions, but also to avoid the black fate it could reach if the Americans lifted their immunity from the financial and banking sector and responded to the claims of creditors. .
The Lebanese officials, and President Berri in particular, wanted to send a signal to the US side, expressing the readiness to respond to this dossier, especially since Shankar had a clear negative deal with them during his recent visit to Lebanon, completely ignoring them, and met with the opposition and civil society..
In practice, this means that the forces of power, and through them Hezbollah, have decided to calm the game with the United States and not get in the way of “muhaddala”, lest they pay a high price. However, does this mean that it will fully respond to American demands?
Most likely, Hezbollah will deal with the negotiations file as it deals with the French initiative, that is, to agree to participate in it … But, under the Iranian roof, to bet on managing it in the direction that serves its interests.
In principle, Schenker will return to the region before mid-October, as suggested by some sources, because he will sponsor the start of negotiations in Naqoura on this date, according to estimates by the Israeli side. This is a delicate period, whether in Lebanon, which is mired in its crippling predicament, or in the United States, where the only concern is the presidential elections..
But the most important thing is to talk about the contacts that are taking place during this period, albeit in a primitive way, between Iran and the United States. These contacts could evolve into high-level negotiations in later stages. And President Donald Trump recently spoke of his pursuit of a new deal with Iran, should he win the election..
Therefore, Tehran will accept the principle of negotiations between Lebanon and Israel, but will certainly try to use it as a bargaining chip or as a message box, either in light of “rams” with the Americans or negotiations with them. The identity of the next US president will be critical, as will his approach to the Iranian dossier.
As for Israel, he reads the dossier from another angle, which is Lebanon’s “slippery” in the direction of negotiation towards deeper issues, related to the new Middle East climate. And it receives American support in this field, regardless of who resides in the White House..
Demarcation will be vital for Lebanon, not only at sea, where gas resources are located, but also on land, as the Shebaa farms and the Kfarshouba hills will be excluded from the negotiations, because Syria has not submitted to the Lebanon a document proving that it is Lebanese territory. It is on the basis of the identity of these lands that the legitimacy of Hezbollah’s armed action ceases, and areas of maritime conflict have recently been added to them..
So when the demarcation negotiations begin, in the presence of the American mediator and the international sponsor, Lebanon will have taken an important step in the direction of something. And the next few days will decide what this is.
