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Ankara / Moscow – Turkey is heading for a direct adventure through military intervention in the conflict on the Azerbaijani side against Armenia, which directly threatens the influence and interests of Moscow in this conflict after the Russians managed for years to maintain the balance of power that allows them to sell arms to the two countries in conflict.
Turkish official statements calling for direct entry into the conflict on the Azerbaijani side prompted a response from Russia calling on Ankara to stop pouring oil on the fires of war and help find a political solution, in a move that observers said. that Moscow aims to prevent the situation from getting out of its control and blocking the road. Faced with Ankara controlling the file and the Russians competing with their vital interests, in a repeat of what happened in the Syrian war.
Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşolu said, in a moving statement, contrary to Ankara’s intentions, that his country “supports Azerbaijan, either on the ground or at the negotiating table,” and that “it wants solve this problem from its roots “, that is, through a military resolution, which seemed evident in the direct military involvement of Turkish drones, which helped the Azerbaijani forces to advance rapidly and control some strategic locations, as well as the vital role of Syrian mercenaries in direct ground battles.
On Monday, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan called on Armenia to end what he called the “occupation” of the Nagorno Karabakh region, revealing that his country “will continue to support friendly and brotherly Azerbaijan with all its capabilities.” .
Before that, Erdogan’s senior adviser Elnur Civik said that Turkey had asked its allies in Azerbaijan to go as far as they could.
Impartial field reports indicate the effective involvement of Turkish drones in changing the military situation on the ground, which was revealed by Armenia early on, threatening to use Russian weapons of wider destruction in an attempt to force Azerbaijan to withdraw. .
These reports say that the Turks have benefited from the experience of the war in Libya, and that that experience made them dominate the confrontation, and that this time they were also able to disable the Russian devices adopted by the Armenians.
A representative of the Armenian Defense Ministry, Artsron Hovanesan, wrote on Facebook that “Turkey is carrying out direct aggression against Armenia.” Armenian Foreign Minister Zagrab Mnatsakyanian also said that the attack on the Armenian city of Vardinis was carried out by a Turkish drone.
Amid Turkish participation in the battles and the shifting balance of power on the ground, observers await the Russian position and whether Moscow will enter directly into the battle line or whether it will continue to seek mediations to reach agreements with Turkey similar to the ones. Astana and Sochi insiders on the Syrian dossier.
The Kremlin called on Turkey on Tuesday to work towards a ceasefire in Nagorno-Karabakh, where battles between Armenian and Azerbaijani separatists have resulted in the deaths of more than a hundred people since Sunday.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters, referring to statements by Turkey’s foreign minister, that “all statements related to military support or action, whatever they may be, are adding fuel to the fire.” .
Observers believe that these developments will create a major headache for Russian President Vladimir Putin, as the Turkish challenge this time affects a traditional Russian vital area, as both countries were members of the Soviet Union and represent two important strategic locations for Moscow.
They point out that Russia’s desire to satisfy Armenia and Azerbaijan and avoid a clash with Turkey means that Moscow is likely to rely on diplomacy rather than a military response, noting that the Russians may resort, to explain the delay in rescuing them. Armenia directly, to the fact that the Russian defense agreement with Armenia The Nagorno Territory does not include Karabakh, which means that Armenia cannot ask Moscow to deploy forces unless there is an attack on Armenian territory.
Under this agreement, which was signed in December 2015, the Russians deployed “MiG-29” fighters in Armenia, along with “S-300” long-range air defense and anti-missile systems and “SE-6 mid-level air defenses.” “as stated in the Washington Institute for Near East Policy Brief.
However, the new Turkish position will widen the circle of disagreement with Russia on a strategic level, especially as the matter has deviated from routine competition between countries to become a threat to the vital field. This is what Dmitry Trenin, director of the Carnegie Endowment for Research in Moscow, points out when he said that “Turkey’s growing involvement in the South Caucasus via Azerbaijan is a reality that Russia does not like” and that “Russian interests and Turks are in conflict here more than anywhere else. “
In a statement to the Financial Times, Trenin stressed that “Putin and Erdogan were never real allies” and that “what we have been able to do instead is to take advantage of their parallel interests and reduce the importance of differences and divisions, so as not to lead to a conflict. direct between Russia and Turkey. “
It seems that this conflict will not stop at the Turkish-Russian rivalry, and that it will expand to more than one competitor due to the importance of this strategic area, which represents a conduit for the pipelines that transport oil and gas to global markets.
In turn, the Iranians did not hide their support for the Armenians, not only in the context of harmonizing the traditional position with Russia, but also because for them Armenia is a great and important outlet and a strong ally, in addition to the fact that the Armenians are a rival to Azerbaijan for their ethnic competition for the Azeris in northern Iran despite being Shiites.
In response to his country’s accusations of facilitating the passage of Russian weapons to Armenia, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh denied what he called “allegations” on Tuesday. He said that his country is closely monitoring the process of transporting goods and their transit to neighboring countries.
