The intransigence of Hezbollah and the Amal Movement. Lebanon Faces “Bitter” Options

During a press conference held early last week before Mustafa Adib’s apology, Lebanese President Michel Aoun warned that if he does not agree to form a government, Lebanon “will of course go to hell.”

After Prime Minister-designate Mustafa Adib apologized for forming a government due to “political differences” and “a certain attachment” to office, Lebanon, “which does not have the luxury of time,” according to international officials, appears closer to fate than its president warned.

“Betrayed” and clinging to publications

Adeeb’s apology was due to the accession of Hezbollah and Amal to the post of Minister of Finance, which gives the two movements a kind of internal protection against international economic sanctions against party officials and allows them to use the Lebanese banking system. to move funds internationally, which was one of the reasons for the collapse of the banking system in Lebanon in some way. Dangerous.

International pressure on Lebanon is believed to increase dramatically, especially from France, whose president accused the Lebanese political class of “collective treason” after political forces in Lebanon failed to translate a promise they made to the French president into early this month to form a government in two weeks.

Macron gave Lebanese politicians on Sunday a new “four to six weeks” deadline to form a government with a “specific mission” that would garner international support. He stressed that “it is now up to Lebanese officials to seize this last opportunity.”

Adeeb’s efforts specifically collided with the conditions of their Shiite duo, represented by Hezbollah, the most prominent political and military force backed by Tehran, and its ally, the Amal Movement, led by Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri, in terms of their adherence to appoint Shiite ministers and maintain the finance portfolio.

Macron, who had previously defended his contact with Hezbollah, said today’s party “should not think it is stronger than it is.” “He has to show that he respects all Lebanese, and in recent days he has clearly shown otherwise,” he added.

Lebanon does not have “the luxury of time”

Lebanese President Michel Aoun, who regretted Adeeb’s inability to form a government on Monday, did not specify a date for the binding parliamentary consultations he should take to assign a new figure to form a government.

In Lebanon, a country based on the logic of agreements and quotas, these consultations are usually formal, preceded by consensus among the main forces on the name of the designated prime minister before his official appointment. The same principle applies to the composition of the government you establish.

Maha Yahya, director of the Carnegie Middle East Center, expects the process of appointing a substitute writer to take “some time.”
Meanwhile, “the country will be in the hands of an interim government that in fact cannot make any decisions and certainly cannot negotiate with the International Monetary Fund on the economic recovery plan,” Yahya told AFP.

Lebanon does not have the luxury of time as the accelerating economic collapse eases its burden on the lives of the population, more than half of whom live below the poverty line, and the performance of political forces during the period of Adib’s attempts to form a government “does not bode well.”

Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah will deliver a speech on Tuesday, in which he will describe his party’s position on recent events and positions.

France intends to organize at the end of October, whether a government is formed or not, an international conference in support of Lebanon with the United Nations, with humanitarian aid directed “directly to the population only through non-governmental organizations on the field and the United Nations. “

On August 9, days after the explosion in the port killed more than 190 people, France and the United Nations organized a video conference in which they raised aid worth about 300 million dollars.

Macron changed his idea of ​​hosting political leaders in Paris in parallel with holding the support conference to assess the progress of his roadmap. But he said he will bring together “in twenty days all members of the international group in support of Lebanon to consolidate the unity of the international community in the next stages.”

The first stage will be to “demand the results of the investigation” into the port explosion and “publish them and identify those responsible.”

The destruction in Beirut caused a quarter of students in Beirut schools to be deprived of their studies, as dozens of students suffered damage that interrupted their use in the new academic year.

Lebanese authorities rejected an international investigation into the explosion. According to the investigations it is carrying out, and the results have not yet been released, at least 25 people have been arrested, including senior officials in charge of port management and security.

The “sweetest and sour” options

Karim Bitar, a professor of international relations in Beirut and Paris, told AFP that Lebanon faces difficult decisions, “the worst of which are bitter.”

He added: “If we do not go to hell, we may witness an increase in violence, a weakening of public institutions, an exacerbation of the economic crisis … and a new wave of immigration.”

Bitar warned that “Lebanon can empty itself of its middle class, ending an oligarchy clinging to power and the impoverishment of those left behind.”

The term oligarchy means (minority government) in terms of political systems.