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And according to the news, Mustafa Adeeb apologized on Saturday. A day later, French President Emmanuel Macron joined him. The reason is not the duo’s insistence on appointing the finance minister, but rather the US insistence that Hezbollah be out of government. This is an obstacle that can take a long time to resolve and that brought you closer than before to the adoption of the American-Saudi rhetoric on Lebanon and its problems, and can be summed up with the phrase: I was not singled out by the failure of my initiative .
Mustafa Adib’s assignment experiment is over. A letter of apology for not having created the government, was with him from the first day of his assignment. It was he who seemed bound by a series of internal and external obligations that he could not overcome. However, this apology, which became reality on Saturday, appeared to be nothing more than a translation of the position of the Saudi king, then the position of US Under Secretary of State David Hale, and before them US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.
In all cases, the US-Saudi message was the same: Hezbollah is responsible for the collapse in Lebanon and must be out of government. The words seemed enough for Adib to hold a black file in his hand that included an apology book.
But Adib is not alone in leaning toward the American position. French President Emmanuel Macron returned to the American squad. He abandoned, in his conference yesterday, the role of mediator, which he had been playing since August 6. His concern was two concerns: taking responsibility for the failure of the initiative and holding Hezbollah accountable for it. While he claimed that the initiative was not dead, he did not present, during his conference, which lasted nearly an hour, any approach that would allow its implementation. On the contrary, he, in his words, announced the end of the initiative in his form, which seeks the unity of the Lebanese, and made it more difficult for him to succeed in his intensive attack against Hezbollah.
He said that the party cannot be an army fighting Israel, a militia alongside Syria and a respectable party in Lebanon, and he proved otherwise, and that he must understand that he is losing all of Lebanon. She did not stop here, but considered it time for Hezbollah to clear up the game. You cannot intimidate others with force of arms and claim that you are a political party. However, Macron acknowledged the impact of US sanctions and noted that they do not appear to be an appropriate option. He also stated that there is no evidence that Iran played a role in preventing the formation of the Lebanese government. He pointed out that there is no fear of a civil war in Lebanon..
Macron referred to the responsibility of former Prime Minister Saad Hariri in frustrating the formation of the government, indicating that he had been wrong to add the sectarian criterion in the distribution of ministerial portfolios.. He also made it clear that the reform document did not include any sectarian conditions in the formation of the government, noting that “the Amal movement and Hezbollah decided that nothing should change, and clearly said that they wanted to appoint the Shiite ministers.” He added: “Hezbollah is responsible because it did not keep its promise to me… I am ashamed of what the Lebanese leaders are doing..
Macron considered that from now to 6 weeks, if there is no progress in Lebanon, we will be forced to make another option to reshape a new political class, and next month will be the basis for action. He stressed that no one trusts the current financial system and Lebanon will not know any golden age under this approach..
Sources on March 8 said Macron was unfair in holding him accountable. He mentioned that Hezbollah and the Amal movement did not breach any commitment with him, but instead agreed to an independent government mission, which would be composed of Mustafa Adeeb and approved by the parties, and also agreed to 90 percent of the reform role. Macron understood his objection to the snap elections. In this sense, the sources indicate that it was the French president who violated his commitment to form a government of national understanding. It was he who seemed contradictory in his speech about a government in which the sects are represented, but without the sects having any role in naming them. So who appoints the ministers? Ask the source. He says: Do you want us to commit to hand over the country to the former prime ministers? Do you want us to commit to appointing Saad Hariri to 14 ministers? Do you want us to commit to canceling the results of the parliamentary elections? The source concludes that it appears that the only commitment required is what Pompeo said about the need to form a government without Hezbollah..
In the same context, the US administration began to promote new sanctions that will be imposed on Lebanese politicians in a few days, under the pretext of their responsibility for the bombing of the port on August 4..
What happens after an apology? After Macron’s words, pessimism will prevail on the governmental path. Saad Hariri has repeatedly announced that he is not in the circle of candidates for prime minister. And it has become clear that he will only return with Saudi coverage. Yesterday, some of his relatives began to celebrate the news published by the Russia Today channel about a contact between Macron and the Saudi crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, in which they agreed on a solution in Lebanon through Saad Hariri. This came after information about a proposal rejected by Saudi Arabia, to form a government with one-third politicians and two-thirds specialists. In conclusion, after Mustafa Adib’s experience, the matter of accepting the name turned into a great adventure. In the current circumstances, nobody can manage to compose. Quite simply, because the conditions and the contrary conditions will not change, and because there is a team inside and outside that wants a government without Hezbollah, while the latter increasingly sticks to the designation of Shiite ministers as solidarity with the Amal movement..
The US elections will be held before the end of the six-week period that Macron granted to the Lebanese parties to the agreement. Is this intentional? It’s not clear, but at least over time: the conversation about not forming a government in Lebanon before the US elections is becoming more realistic. But the irony is that elections in themselves will not be enough to form a government. After the election, the United States may enter into major conflicts, which may not end before the winner’s transfer to the White House in January. In the event that Trump loses and changes the administration, no one in him will come to Lebanon before next spring..
According to preliminary data, although there has been no serious breach in the government stalemate, the current year will pass without forming a government. This leads to the multiplication of challenges that people face, which started the moment Adib announced his apology. The dollar jumped 500 pounds at once and its rise is expected to continue, especially with the start of the subsidy easing process. Perhaps, in the eyes of some politicians, there is no alternative to Hassan Diab’s floating government.
