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Johnny Mounir wrote in The Republic: It is logical that French President Emmanuel Macron does not announce his surrender and his loss in Lebanon. He clearly stated, after presenting his initiative for Lebanon, that he was betting and put all his political balance on the Lebanese table.
And it has been known that one of the reasons for his enthusiasm in Lebanon was the position of his political party in France, and therefore his approval of the surrender in Lebanon would mean a total loss for France in the Middle East, where the ongoing conflict in the eastern Mediterranean, and its political loss in France, which would inevitably mean turning the page for a long time. Consequently, Macron cannot leave the Lebanese game, which has become more complicated, and cannot easily retire, as François Mitterrand did before him, and to some extent Jacques Chirac.
However, realism demands recognition that the French initiative received a severe blow with the announcement of the president in charge of forming the government, Mustafa Adeeb, of his apology, which led Lebanon to enter an open and cruel crisis of which no one you can predict its scope.
Indeed, the options after the apology do not seem easy, because the reassignment of a Sunni figure who enjoys Sunni political coverage through previous presidents has become difficult in light of the ceiling traced by Adeeb’s apology, which will be Hard to break for any Sunni figure even if Prime Minister Saad Hariri himself or someone. Members of the club of former heads of government. The second option is to go and assign a Sunni figure who enjoys neither Sunni political coverage nor Saudi coverage of course. This means having a Sunni figure who belongs to the team allied with Hezbollah and the Free Patriotic Movement, or in a clearer expression, with a duplicate of Hassan Diab and his government.
The result will be similar to that of the Diab government, which suffered greatly and quickly fell under the weight of rivalry with the street.
As for the third possibility, which some are whispering about, the judge has reprogrammed Hassan Diab’s government, without legal prohibitions and constitutional heresies. The prime minister tendered his resignation, and many ministers had preceded him, and a new prime minister was appointed after binding consultations, and then other consultations to get the opinion of the parliamentary blocs.
In addition, Diab adhered to his resignation and doubted in front of his visitors that he could no longer “tolerate” staying in the government palace, and was waiting for the birth of the new government to be able to travel to the United States of America, where his son. According to these data, the outlook seems difficult and the horizon is closed despite the fact that economic and financial conditions are catastrophic, and its danger increases the hysterical spread of the Covid-19 virus and the escalation of the terrorist threat, which it finds in current conditions. of Lebanon ideal conditions to move and carry out its operations. There is no doubt that everyone is aware of the extremely dangerous situation in which Lebanon finds itself.
And with him the question is correct: Why did the file that forms the government deal with this stubbornness and cruelty? Weren’t the circumstances dangerous that needed at least all teams to withdraw, even if it was a step backward?
It is likely that the controversies behind the knot of a ministry were beyond the boisterous debate that occupied the forefront of the media. There are those who have been convinced that the decision was not to give birth to the government, at least from now until the date of the US presidential elections, and to clarify the identity of the winner, although the accounts of Adeeb’s continuation in her mission
Amid the media storm that focused on the money bag knot, the Lebanese people overlooked two very important signals that could provide answers to the Lebanese government’s crisis. The first reference is related to the speech delivered by the guide of the Republic of Iran, Mr. Ali Khamenei, during the annual meeting of the leaders of the Revolutionary Guard, and this speech, in addition to the Nowruz speech, constitutes a basic station that American departments and think tanks carefully analyze what might include broad possibilities for Iranian politics.
In 2013, Khamenei focused on heroic flexibility, paving the way for Tehran to sign the nuclear deal after a short period. Turning to last year’s speech, he adopted a confrontational tone when he spoke about the possibility of dealing with American pressure.
In his last speech, which Omir Karmi of the Washington Institute of Studies promised to read and analyze, he did not mention Washington’s re-imposition of a series of sanctions on Iran, on the contrary, he spoke of the lessons learned from the war with Iraq and took lessons from them to preach at the present stage.
Although he spoke of resistance to aggression as strength and respect, he recalled Imam Khomeini’s decision to accept a ceasefire with Iraq in 1988, based on his famous ingestion of poison.
Mr. Khamenei praised his predecessor’s decision as wise, cautious and responsible, opening the door to compromise on difficult issues whenever the state was at stake.
Likewise, the speeches of Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah were noted during Ashura, during which he remembered Hassan more than once. Al Hassan is known as a symbol of reconciliation, not war.
In the same context, he also drew attention to the postponement by Washington of the complete withdrawal of its forces from Iraq, where some 3,000 soldiers will remain.
In Syria, some 100 specialized soldiers have also been added to protect oil fields and patrol specific areas with the Kurds. In fact, these forces monitor the land communication routes between Iran and Lebanon, which is what, for example, some 200 US soldiers are taking at the Al-Tanf base.
As for the second signal, it refers to the completion of the agreement on the framework for the demarcation of the maritime borders between Lebanon and Israel, and where the Israeli media revealed the possibility of starting negotiations in the middle of next month.
According to US diplomatic sources, the US Undersecretary of State David Schenker, a specialist in this file, will visit Lebanon very soon and is optimistic about the achievement of the required result.
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