Hezbollah has two options: the French roadmap or war

Wissam Abu Harfoush and Linda Azar wrote in Kuwaiti “Al-Rai”: “The brink of death” … for the people with “Crown” according to the Italian model, of hunger, of pain … of the State, of the political asphyxia by intractable crises that wrap the neck of the regime with the ropes of the regional conflict The great deal with which the country was tied by force … to the economic-financial reality of the terrible collapse that accelerates its passage on the highway of the Venezuelan model.

This bleak outlook gripped Beirut on the second day, as the “last grace” hopes that the French initiative would succeed in giving Lebanon a dose of oxygen that would increase its resistance in the regional-international transition phase through a “reform buffer” with which problematic political headlines related to the situation were suspended. Hezbollah “or, at the very least, a” leak proof “to the maximum pressure from the United States on the party in the great confrontation with Iran.

Although yesterday all eyes were clear on the highly indicative vision of French President Emmanuel Macron on the Lebanese reality after the sabotage of the initiative in which he threw his diplomatic weight to a “great risk” that would affect the balance that accumulates on the foothills of the crises and tensions in the region in the eastern Mediterranean, The astonished positions of the Elysee confirm that Lebanon faces two options that have no third. Either the French roadmap, with which the international community agrees, or the worst case scenario, that is, declare war against (Hezbollah) to collapse with Lebanon, and this is what I reject now, “warning:” I I resisted the voices. Some in the region who wanted the worst scenario, and I faced them, and today the issue is in the hands of President Nabih Berri and (Hezbollah). Do they want to take Lebanon to the worst scenario? “And delaying the Lebanese leaders between 4 and 6 weeks,” Either there is a positive impact, or the blows will come from within AND abroad, I am doing everything possible to avoid it. “

Although Macron did not spare anyone from the political class in the context of assigning responsibilities for “collective treason” by thwarting the formation of the “mission government” headed by Mustafa Adib and “headed by President Michel Aoun,” he attacked ” Hezbollah “in an unprecedented way, accusing it of being responsible for” The system of terror “based on corruption and declaring that” the party cannot be a militia participating in the war in Syria and fighting against Israel, it must be a respectable party. in Lebanon and must respect all Lebanese, “considering that” neither the party nor the Amal movement want a settlement, and they decided that nothing should change in Lebanon and clearly said that they want to appoint the Shiite ministers, and I understood that the party he does not respect the promise he made to me. ”And he assured the former prime minister, Saad Hariri, that“ he was wrong to add the sectarian condition to form a government, and the working method that he chose in the last s weeks was Mal, and I admit that he tried to move back to the road map ”, emphasizing that“ the French map did not include sectarian conditions ”.

And he declared that his initiative still stands and that the failure “is not for me, but for the Lebanese political class”, explaining that “the mission government may not be secular in the full sense of the word, but at least everything The group should not defend the interests of its community. Let’s call it a government that respects the balance and that the ministers are not hostages with If the political forces do not adhere to the reforms in the coming days, we will be facing a civil war or a government of beneficiaries ”, While continuing to resort to sanctions, but not in the short term.

Macron’s positions came to confirm Lebanon’s entry into a more severe stage of finger-biting, which was tied to 3 fronts, and it is feared that its temporal entanglement, coincidentally or intentionally, is a feature of a period of high risks that the country is knocking at your door. These fronts are: * The political crisis reestablished after Adeeb’s apology, 25 days after his assignment, during which he was unable to form a government of “independent specialists he calls”, because he collided with a wall of “reinforced concrete” , with an apparent sectarian, titled considering the Shiite duo “Hezbollah” – President Nabih Berri, the money bag, is the key to his authorized association in the executive branch and his adherence to it was dedicated to him by naming those who will take it already the other ministers of the Shiites, while it seemed that the “bomb” that exploded the French initiative in its original and “domesticated” version was full of all the fuses of the US-Iranian conflict and their obligations as well as the accounts they fulfill. New fields of tension in the region.

Whereas the position of the team of President Aoun (the Free Patriotic Movement) to link again “between assignment and composition” on the basis of not setting a date for the mandatory consultations for the assignment before a prior understanding with the person to be summoned on the composition and its rules constituted a new political, constitutional and sectarian project of “great crisis”, amid reports It was reported that Aoun will seek to finish the composition process before the date of the US presidential elections. reflect Aoun’s unwillingness to backtrack on his role in setting the form and size of government (he wants it from 24 ministers) nor to appoint Christian ministers in any government that “needs an understanding of the parliamentary blocs by respect”. »Taking advantage of the fact that the Shiite duo would begin in any new negotiation from where Adeeb’s mission ended, that is, the insistence on the money bag” breaking “the principle of rotation and that enshrines the principle of appropriation that drags the accounts into complications “mortal” for any initiative.

It was notable yesterday that the leader of the Future Movement, the former prime minister of the government, Saad Hariri, who was quoted as saying that he would not nominate any figure this time to form the government, confirmed in a statement that he “is not a candidate to form the government, but maintains its position in support of the initiative of the French president and facilitating everything that would make him succeed as the only and last chance to stop the collapse of Lebanon ”, in light of the deep divisive internal climates that revealed the statements of former prime ministers after Adib’s apology, who blamed the Shiite duo for their failure.

On the other hand, prominent sources in the “March 8” team said that regardless of the comings and goings regarding responsibilities for the failure of the Adeeb mission and the fate of the French initiative, there are “parties that come together. to prevent Aoun from completing his term or at least marginalizing his role and working to isolate (Hezbollah) and remove him Under the authority of executive authority, announcing the attempt to disarm him. ” At a time when these sources downplayed the importance of Macron’s initiative and its effectiveness, “ France failed to get the American green light and was tracking Macron’s visits to Beirut by sending his delegates after him, ” noting that “ the French president does not have the decision to resolve and link Evidence that it failed to mobilize more than $ 290 million from 17 countries in humanitarian aid to Lebanon after the port explosion, so the rescue decision was made elsewhere.

* The second front is security and it was represented in the strong return of the terrorist factor to the Lebanese theater within a path that informed circles feared would be in the framework of preparing the ground internally for a warming phase that meets with political stagnation and it tries to control its course by using the terrorism card so that balanced internal parties take defensive positions in the confrontation. Ready loads ».

In this context, it was not a fleeting event that the fierce confrontation that took place on Saturday in northern Lebanon between the attack force of the Information Division of the Internal Security Forces and an ISIS-affiliated terrorist group linked to the perpetrators of the Kaftoun crime (in which 3 Lebanese youths died more than a month ago) which led to the death of all its members.