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Munir al-Rabee ‘wrote in “Al-Modon”: He uses a comment on the failure of the government formation process, with what the Sufis say is the “reveal and manifest” phase. In the sense of the emergence of the batin beyond the visible. More clearly, Mustafa Adib’s apology for forming the government showed the position of the Shiite duo and their Iranian successors that they are obstructing the French initiative. What happened is a mistake against the French, who made a great effort that Iran seemed to have failed, and Iran showed that it is grappling with France to reach negotiations with the Americans..
Respond to the insult
Here, we must await the French reaction to what happened, especially in light of increased American pressure on Paris to stop facilitating the Iranians and Hezbollah. France cannot not respond to the insult to which it was subjected by the Khalileans with the consent of the Aounists, because despite Aoun’s claim of his adherence to the French initiative and his enthusiasm for it, he was imposing conditions on Mustafa Adeeb on the need to consult with political forces in order to form your government..
Lebanon was experiencing a major political conflict related to the dispute over its oil and gas resources. Many questions will arise: can the French company Total be considered to be working on oil exploration in Block N ° 9 before reaching an important political understanding? That is almost impossible. The French steps will be staggered. This escalation will be a new form of French stay in Lebanon and the continuation of various initiatives, because France did not come out due to a dispute over the formation of a government. Gas and oil are temporarily buried in Lebanon, as was the case with Block No. 4 months ago. It is not possible to talk about agreements and solutions before reaching an important political agreement..
“The end”
The biggest loser of what happened is the era of President Michel Aoun, who did not seem to form or compose or participate with force. While the decision was limited to the former prime ministers and the Shiite duo. Aoun was in a very difficult position, woe to him and Hezbollah and the alliance with him, and his woe to the French initiative and international relations, which would constitute the last ray of hope to save the pact, and woe to him the sanctions to be imposed on Gebran Bassil. What happened will put more pressure on Aoun and show that the era is over. Unless Aoun decides to take a political step that represents a coup and a strategic shift in their positions..
The government was not formed not to establish the Ministry of Finance for the Shiite community, because that would have become a fixation similar to stabilizing the army and the people’s equation of resistance. But inevitably, if the circumstances remain the same, the party will stick to what it extracted in the negotiations to form a government before apologizing, by obtaining the Ministry of Finance. Saad Hariri’s abdication step, despite its seriousness, served him well, as the government was not formed. He seemed loyal to the French initiative and his friend Macron, and was in no way to disrupt the French government and initiative. By his concession, the party embarrassed with the French.
Lebanon has been completely exposed to the political pressures or sanctions to come, and if Hezbollah can resist the sanctions and not ask about them, its allies will not be able to resist and will work to check their wrong accounts, especially since they will not find anyone to do so. protect yourself from these penalties. Anyone betting on a French role in this field will be disappointed. They will be without money, father or beauty, according to Naguib Mahfouz in his novel The Beginning and the End.
