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But the president moves within the margins of these groups. His biggest problem is the demographics that sent him to the White House, the white voters, whose acceptance of Trump appears to be falling into critical and changing, predominantly white states. In Minnesota, where the competition between Trump and Joe Biden seemed to have intensified in recent weeks … a CBS News poll conducted in cooperation with YouGov last week showed that Trump is two percentage points behind Biden, Among voters White voters, after winning by seven points against each other in 2016. Even among white voters without college degrees, Trump’s base, the president was far from the margin he had against Hillary Clinton.
The same is true in Wisconsin, where Trump won the votes of white women without a college degree, 16 points four years ago, but today he is losing nine points, according to an ABC poll in cooperation with The Washington Post. In Pennsylvania, Biden appears to be on par with Trump among white voters, according to an NBC poll. In 2016, white voters cast more than 80 percent of the vote in all three states, according to opinion polls. “It’s a big change, a big one,” Meringhoff, director of the Marist Institute of Public Opinion, told me. “What Biden does among white voters is more than just compensation for the slippage among non-white voters … The recipe is different this time, now anyway, for white voters.”
Focusing on replacing Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg can help remind voters who distanced themselves from Trump of what mattered to them in 2016. Four years ago, one in five voters, many of them white and conservative He said the appointments were in the Supreme Court was the most important factor in his vote.
But Trump is operating from a disadvantage this year. Only a relatively small number of undecided voters remained. Democrats are also very active on the Supreme Court. And the ratification of Brett Kavanaugh in the Supreme Court, a month before the midterm elections, two years ago, did nothing to stop Democrats from putting pressure on Trump and the Republican Party.
The erosion of white support for Trump, and its importance to the November outcome, has been no more apparent than has been shown in Trump’s messages in recent days. Last week, he called for the creation of a committee to promote “national education”, while rejecting the “theory of the decisive race” (…). On Friday, he ran a television ad in Minnesota and Michigan criticizing Biden for supporting increasing refugee admissions, even from “the most unstable, vulnerable and dangerous parts of the world.” Then Trump mocked Ilhan Omar, a Democrat, the first Somali-American in Congress and a former immigrant, in front of a predominantly white crowd in Bimendji, Minnesota, saying that Biden could “turn Minnesota into a camp for the displaced. “. He also praised the people of Minnesota for their “good genes.”
But Trump’s speech does not seem to have the echo it did in 2016, with white America. That year, whites cast nearly three-quarters of the votes nationally, and Trump won these votes, by about 15 percentage points, according to the Pew Research Center. Four years later, Biden abolished this trait, although it is not clear to what extent (…).
Trump is doing better among white voters in some states than others … In North Carolina, it attracts uneducated white college voters, at the same level as in 2016. But in other states, including some states with large numbers of people of color, it performs poorly among whites …
It was not always clear that Trump would have a problem with white voters or that he would make progress among people of color. Even in the midterm elections, when suburban residents turned away from Trump and Democrats regained the House of Representatives, Republicans won the white vote nationwide by roughly 10 percentage points. But white voters have not proven immune to the damage Trump has been done by the Corona virus and the economic devastation it has caused, which has been a drag on his re-election campaign since the spring. In particular, the epidemic appears to have hurt Trump among the elderly, including older white voters, who are concerned about their retirement accounts and their health …
(David Ciders-Politico)
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