Lebanon: various scenarios for the next government



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World_Lebanon

Thus, the two-week period set by President Emmanuel Macron has failed to impose itself as a valuable opportunity for the birth of the government during it, and the picture that can be drawn of the path of formation of the new government reflects its collision with a complex impasse, with which the three-day opportunity granted until next Thursday does not seem sufficient to dismantle its mines. And its explosive devices that threaten all this way, thus returning to zero point. The first victim in this case will be the French initiative, which constitutes the only impulse towards a government with rescue and reform missions..

President-designate Mustafa Adib attended the Republican Palace on Monday and the President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, presented what he had prepared for the formation of the government and the contract in the way of this formation, particularly with regard to the “knot Shiite “represented by the insistence of the Shiite duo in appointing sect ministers in the new government and keeping the Ministry of Finance within the Shiite quota.

The Al-Gomhoria newspaper continued … At the same time, sources confirm that, in parallel to this fierce battle between the author team and the Shiite duo, there are 6 possible scenarios.:

The first is that the Shiite duo and the team of authors insist on their position, and this means that the confrontation is tough..

The second is for the Shiite duo to withdraw, and this does not seem possible because it will put them in shame in their sect and with their audience in the first place, which has become tense with the conditions they set..

The third is that the author team withdraws, but this retraction costs him a lot, and constitutes a moral break for him that opens the door to withdrawals and does not close it..

Fourth, that everyone backtracks and installs a government similar to the Hassan Diab government, that is to say that each political party names who represents it in this government, even under the cover of specialists and non-partisans, and in a clearer sense, each political party becomes its minister or ministers in government to manage them remotely..

Fifth, that the author team insist on their position and deliver to the designated president a government formation composed of their conditions, which the president of the republic will not accept because he does not have the power to take off. In this case, the president-designate apologizes for continuing his mission.. This means opening the door to the unknown..

Sixth, that the President of the Republic accept the government project that the designated President will present to him, and refer the matter of confrontation with him to the House of Representatives in the field of trust, and this would open the possibility that the government falls out of trust, or by pact, whether the 27 Shiite representatives denied him trust or absent themselves from the session. This also means opening the door to the unknown..

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