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It is notable that after the Turkish announcement of the ship’s withdrawal, Greek President Ekaterini Saklaropoulou rushed to the island of Meis, where the retreating Turkish ships were close to it. This island was the starting point of the recent spark of tension, because it is a small Greek island with an area of ten square kilometers, and it is located only 2,100 meters from the Turkish coast of Gash, while it is located 580 km from the Greek continent. However, the area of the economic zone to which it belongs is approximately 40 thousand km, which is what Turkey objects to and considers illogical that every island, even a very small one, has exclusive economic zones as if it were a large land country . This was reflected in the map of “Seville”, which was unofficially adopted by the European Union and limits Turkey’s exclusive economic zones to narrow areas close to the Turkish coast.
The visit of the Greek president, last Sunday, to the island of Mayes, which was received at the same time by a visit of the Turkish defense minister to the Gash region, in the interview. The Greek President’s visit was interpreted to mark the 47th anniversary of Italy’s handover of the occupying island to Greece, but it was a defiant visit to Turkey and an affirmation of Athens’ firmness in its positions of rejection of the ” Turkey’s violation of the exclusive economic zone of Greece, and indeed for Meis. The Greek muscle review indicates that the crisis will not end soon, and that the opportunity available today is to take a breath and re-evaluate the previous phase, waiting for a new round of tension. However, Turkey considers that the spearhead of all this tension is France, and that Greece is nothing more than a front behind France.
Retired Turkish general Ali Er says the French movement in the eastern Mediterranean instigating Greece aims to show France that it is a world power and has a supreme word in the eastern Mediterranean. It seeks to move independently of the “North Atlantic Alliance” in preparation for the establishment of a European military force led by France, so that Germany is the economic dynamo of the European Union, while France is fighting as the main military force for it. , noting that 23 countries of the Union agreed to establish a European army. . Likewise, Ali Er believes that France is preparing for any possibility related to expanding its role in the Syrian crisis, after it entered the line of the Lebanese crisis with force. Although Turkey is economically and commercially more important to France than Greece, what precipitated French intervention in the eastern Mediterranean was Turkey’s success in finding a major foothold in Libya.
As for the US position on the crisis, despite being somewhat fuzzy, Turkish officials believe that it is wholeheartedly with Greece, but mentally with Turkey. The United States has lifted the ban on arms exports to Greek Cyprus after 37 years of its imposition. And US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo visited Greek Cyprus and expressed concern about Turkish movements in the region and did not pay a parallel visit to Ankara. Yet Washington is dealing in cold blood with the tension, considering it wants to preserve the “Atlantic” as its top priority over any other link with Greece or Cyprus.
The Turkish withdrawal cannot be considered a withdrawal or a defeat, as Ankara is in a strong position.
The withdrawal of the Turkish ship “Oroch President” came after a series of pressure from the European Council and the threat of the European Union to impose harsh sanctions on Turkey at its meeting on September 24-25 if Turkey did not withdraw its ships from the region. greek. It also came after the Moody’s company lowered Turkey’s economic rating from b1 to b2, which was seen as increased pressure on Turkey, and in light of the fall in the value of the Turkish lira to almost 7.50 vs. to the dollar.
The Turkish withdrawal cannot be considered a withdrawal or a defeat, as Ankara is in a strong position, be it military or in the game of regional and international balances. Because the outbreak of any military confrontation is doomed to defeat the Greeks, except in the case of a massive European military intervention, which is totally excluded. Likewise, a military intervention from the “Atlantic” automatically means the suicide of the alliance, and this also leads to a net gain for Russia and China without a single shot, and destroys the entire strategy of Donald Trump to weaken China and Russia. Likewise, any European country that intervenes in the war on the side of Greece will prevent, according to the Montreux Agreement of 1936, the passage through the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles, in addition to Turkey’s ability to move the file of Syrian refugees and open the doors to them. towards Europe. From here, the German position differs somewhat from the French position on the Greek-Turkish crisis, which perceives the significance of the influx of refugees and the significance of the presence of a large Turkish community in Germany.
These Turkish proxy cards do not automatically lead to clinging to a military solution. Former Turkish diplomat and politician Faruk Lugolu believes that Turkey’s misguided policies have led it to a situation where it faces everyone. He did not sign the 1982 Law of the Sea, and his position with Greece appeared to violate international law. The explosion of tension also came after the “Hagia Sophia” issue and the Western and European consensus to condemn the decision to convert it into a mosque.
Security affairs expert Naim Papraoglu believes that Turkey has demonstrated its presence and strength in the eastern Mediterranean and has advanced steps, but this is not enough, as the Turkish field superiority must translate to the negotiating table, which requires an exceptional effort from Turkish diplomacy to explain its positions and not present itself to international public opinion as a recalcitrant state and violator of international law
A definitive solution to the crisis between Greece and Turkey does not seem in sight, and what appeared to be a relief of tension is nothing more than a rest for the warriors awaiting the European summit after ten days, and a further crystallization of regional and international conflicts and the extent to which France can go on its new foreign adventures from Lebanon and Libya to Greece and Cyprus. Led by the “New Napoleon” Emmanuel Macron, as they are called in Turkey.
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