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The Kuwaiti “Al-Rai” wrote: “72 decisive hours entered Lebanon, and in the end there is no choice but to enter a temporary détente with which the country moves to the waiting room of the main routes in the conflicts of the region with the political-financial “refrigerators”, and an explosion that deepens its integral crisis by interrupting the rope of the French initiative that appears with it Paris is as if it practiced “surfing” the rough waves that assault the Lebanese reality, which has slipped from attempting to escape aboard a “pierced ship” that crashed through storms in the region to dealing with rough seas on … a wandering plank of wood.
While informed circles circulated a caricature in the manner of funny crying, it became the talk of the political halls, according to which Lebanon and its political class ruled themselves on the fringes of movement and maneuvering at the limits of the archive’s formation. of the new government by equating the hand of President Emmanuel Macron stretched out in front of them on the basis of the initiative with its terms and deadlines (Wednesday) and succeeded by the “stick” of President Donald Trump and the false sanctions of Washington that began to afflict to the politicians of the first row of allies of Hezbollah.
Two scenarios stood side by side on the front of government formation, the possibility of success of the designated president Mustafa Adeeb on the brink of the “French term” in invoking solutions to the complications that still prevent the consensual birth of a group of specialists “a those who are not opposed by party representatives “, and the failure of the efforts to communicate this file. At its end the “French seal” was added, and consequently, the situation has opened to a critical stage, with which it will face the moment of solutions in the region or a major collision with a total exposure that is feared that entails existential risks for the small nation..
Although yesterday the proportions of pessimism rose about the possibility of an imminent advance that would break the cycle of stagnation in the impasse, amid indications from Paris that the 15-day period can only be extended by two days if all the elements that make these overtime hours translate into real consensus leading to the Lebanese “Macron government”. There was another environment according to which things are not completely closed and there are renewed attempts to cook a strong French government dish “under fire” that arises from the dismantling of the mother of the contract that has been formed by the intransigence of the Shiite duo Hezbollah and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri in adhering to the money portfolio as “a pact and there is no discussion on this.” I send“.
These circles approached a third possibility with great caution. It was suggested that President Michel Aoun could turn to him when Adeeb, together with his formation, is installed without consulting the main parties, taking into account the conditions he deems necessary for a homogeneous work team away from the traditional game of quotas and in based on powers not political loyalties. And with the breaking of the “taboos” of portfolio rotation, some of which would become sectarian-partisan “protectorates”, which are criteria sponsored by France..
This possibility is represented by the fact that Aoun intends to sign the decree of the de facto formation and leave the question of leaving it in Parliament by not gaining the trust of parliament, out of a desire to avoid him and whoever represents him. politically (the Free Patriotic Movement) responsible for dropping the French “last chance” and avoiding their position. Face to face with Macron, who wielded sanctions on officials as “the last word” if they did not fulfill their obligations to the reforming government in which the guaranteed form is as important as.
Not to mention that throwing the Adib government’s constitutional quorum ball into the court of parliament could in turn send more than a related message that “the parliamentary majority here” (Hezbollah forms its train) with its regional spread and cannot be jump, and this is a point that seemed to be fundamental in the insistence. The parties in power are led by the Shiite duo, as long as the ministers are specialists, even if they only enjoy a political “flavor” appointed by the powers that give confidence to the government. The same circles saw that without this possibility to risk that the lack of confidence in the government would turn Adeeb into the head of an interim government with a formation with which the parliamentary majority does not agree, whose damages are equaled by the scenario of retirement of the designated president, which was placed on the table in parallel with the option to apologize if Aoun did not agree to the training that Aoun agreed to. He will take it, as she considered it necessary to anticipate what Macron will do (on Friday he called Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi and discussed the situation in Lebanon with him) in the last hours of his delay, in the middle of a bet on a new direct intervention from him to try to urge the various parties to seize the French opportunity before it is too late. Especially after the last few hours showed signs of Shiite militancy regarding the money bag, which was intensified by the US sanctions against former Finance Minister Ali Hassan Khalil..
While it was notable that Hezbollah Undersecretary General Sheikh Naim Qassem said: “The party’s refusal that the next government be independent, but instead embed itself in politics, technocrats or specializations,” the speech is anticipated today. from the leader of the Free Patriotic Movement, Gebran Bassil, on his movement’s vision to form the French government and initiative. As well as the file of demarcation of the maritime borders with Israel, amid estimates that his party will not participate in the government in any way..
