The American Sanctions Movie Begins … Did Aoun and Bassil Survive?

Munir Al-Rabee` wrote in Al-Modon: The US sanctions were inaugurated by the two former ministers, Ali Hassan Khalil and Youssef Fenianos. It opens a new political phase: the end of the separation between the political and military wing of the Shiite duo, and the delivery of a message to the parties allied to Hezbollah, including the President of the Republic, Michel Aoun and his movement, led by Gebran Bassil.

Farah Aounin Timer

Although the sanctions were personally directed at two of the most staunch opponents of the Aounists and Bassil, in their text and content they coincide with a position announced by the President of the Republic in one of his interviews with the Western press a few days ago, in the who accused Ali Hassan Khalil of receiving money from contractors. Aoun attributed his position to his intention to resign from the Presidency of the Republic, in the event that a member of his family was involved in acts of corruption.

Since this batch of sanctions did not extend to his son-in-law and other members of his group, he must invest his “innocence” of the current US attack at this stage, since it affected two allies who compete with him and form an effective force in his opposition, namely the Amal movement and the Marada movement.

But the “movie” of sanctions is still in its infancy. And there are sources who say that not including Gebran Bassil or close to him means that the imperative to keep the sword hanging over Lebanese politicians and the continuation of the “movie” demands that the “hero” not die at the start of the show.

The situation of the Shiite duo

The US sanctions are supposed to give new impetus to the French initiative, especially since Macron imposed sanctions on Lebanese officials to prevent it from being obstructed. And the Americans support Macron’s initiative on his terms, with three dimensions:

The first is to tell the French that the debate on the Hezbollah issue cannot be postponed. This is what David Schenker announced, when he pointed out the difference between the American and French views on the roles of Hezbollah. And Washington says on this issue: It is not possible to repeat the same mistake that was made in the 2016 presidential agreement, which showed that Hezbollah is an external crisis unrelated to Lebanon and the Lebanese, and everything in Lebanon cannot be delivered. and share with him. Therefore, the question of the party cannot be postponed.

The second US dimension refers to the complexity of the issue of the distribution of ministerial portfolios and the quality of cabinet members, especially the Ministry of Finance and its link with the negotiations with the International Monetary Fund. It is taken for granted that Hezbollah and Amal are not easily compromised on this issue. Some of the positions of President Nabih Berri indicate that he will not give in to pressure, to give the impression that he has surrendered to the fait accompli and accepted the accusations of his closest collaborators.

Perhaps the answer to the question of the Ministry of Finance is in the framework of the letter: if a certain person is accused of a group, the whole group should not be punished. That is, you cannot leave the Ministry of Finance, but delegate it to another efficient person in your group.

But it is clear that the president and his son-in-law want to use the sanctions to their advantage, to get hold of the money bag. As for whether the Shiite duo remained linked to the Finance Ministry, after sanctions included a former Finance Minister, Lebanon, with its new government, has entered a new confrontation with the United States. The position of Hezbollah and the Amal movement on the issue of border demarcation completes this picture: the confrontation. In the event that there is some consensus on these issues, the concessions process will have begun. But if the signing does not occur soon, the confrontation will continue.

Did Aoun and Basil survive?

The third US dimension derived from the sanctions is to go beyond the rigor of not representing Hezbollah in the government, to a new direction: to impose conditions on the representation of the party’s allies, according to what criteria they can be represented in the government.

It is true that the sanctions do send a clear threatening message to Aounists, who have something to rely on to protect themselves from their effects. This opens the way for many questions about US interest or calculations to avoid imposing sanctions on Aounists. The matter may be related to a position that Basil previously announced: his declaration that there will be no ideological dispute with Israel and the release of Amer Al-Fakhoury.

There is also a position that Aoun stated when asked about the possibility of normalizing relations with Israel and replied: Some differences with him must be resolved. Such attitudes, along with what is happening behind the scenes, can be an indication of the next stage, beginning with the issue of demarcation of the border, and even what will come next.