Details of the French initiative in minefields

Beirut – Indira Matar –

French President Emmanuel Macron left Lebanon after an intense visit “in which” he did not catch his breath, “in the words of a Lebanese diplomat, leaving doubts about the possibility of the success of the French race to rescue the Lebanese system from its economic and political crises, and its ability to attract international and Arab support, which will be seen through the formation of the government, the new one, on which consultations began yesterday.

Macron gave the political class three months to implement the agreement. From his press conference, in which he refuted the components of the French initiative, it was clear that the agreement is based mainly on the formation of government and the implementation of reforms related to the economic and financial part, while controversial and strategic issues as the issue of neutrality, Hezbollah’s weapons and early parliamentary elections were left for a later stage.

According to observers, Macron avoided addressing these issues as inconsistent with the vision of Americans who consider that any reform must inevitably go through the implementation of international resolutions, especially Resolutions 1559 and 1701, which are directly related to Hezbollah and its weapons. And they are advancing their battle against Hezbollah according to an upward line, while the French view separates between Hezbollah’s political formula and its military wing, which is why Macron described it as the strongest party in terms of popularity and organization, indicating that it has the ingredients that allow it to work more seriously than all other forces.

Shanker’s Scream

Meanwhile, the US Undersecretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, David Schenker, anticipated his arrival in Lebanon with a press release in which he considered that the Beirut port disaster was the result of decades of neglect by governments. Lebanese out of the interests of the Lebanese people, and that it was like a cry for vigilance that required serious change. He said the Lebanese government must believe in the reform. A government is needed that cares about its people and their demands, a responsible and transparent government that carries out economic and political reforms, and that from today will no longer be “business as usual.”

Exaggeration of expectations

In your answer to a question from Al-Qabas, if the French initiative has the support of the United States and a grace period that slows the slide of Lebanon until the conditions for the agreement between the United States and Iran mature? Lebanese-French journalist Dr. Sami Kulaib said: “ There is no doubt that Macron’s visit contributed to shedding light on the disasters in Lebanon and encouraged the international community and Arab countries to help, even though these countries They, including Kuwait, were the first to help the Lebanese heal the wounds of the mysterious attack on the port of Beirut. But there is an exaggeration in expecting magical results for decades-long problems.

Klipp noted that Macron acted with great rationality and understanding with the political class against which many popular uprisings were launched, but put everyone before their responsibilities, sometimes threatening to prevent the arrival of any international aid and the collapse of Lebanon unless he rapid reforms and the formation of a new government are implemented, and at other times through imposed sanctions. It can be imposed on Lebanese officials, in cooperation between Paris and Washington.

The French president managed to pressure the political class to assign diplomat Mustafa Adeeb to the head of the government, extracting promises to facilitate his mission and immediately initiate reforms that open the doors of the International Monetary Fund and other aid funds.

Initiative traps

But in exchange for this success, Klipp believes that Macron also came carrying explosive bombs that could destroy his entire initiative, and through his rapprochement with Hezbollah, he promised the Americans to soften the party’s position and reduce its direct presence in politics and politics. government, and this means that the American who is currently tipped by elections and the Corona pandemic will not accept. Continue supporting the French president if it appears that the dialogue with the party has increased his presence, role and strength.

Second, Macron came with the goal of circling the Iranian role and explicitly said that he wanted to separate Lebanon from regional tensions, as well as Iraq, and referred to Iran by name. This would also be a trigger for explosions if it went too far in this direction, because Iran’s allies in Lebanon could disrupt its mission. As for if he had a rapprochement with Iran as he is doing now, it would provoke the United States, Israel and the Gulf states, who would seek non-cooperation and frustrate his mission.

As for the third trap, it is Macron’s frank speech on the need to confront Turkey and Russian expansion, and we know that the two sides in Lebanon have allies who can create problems that hamper Macron’s work. Therefore, the success or failure of your initiative remains dependent on the extent of your cooperation with the United States and the extent of US, Gulf and Egyptian support for this initiative.

From the words of the American envoy David Schenker, it was clear that the United States still considers Hezbollah a problem in the way of reform, and wants to press for quick results to investigate the bombing of the port, with the aim of accusing the party and the Pact, since they were fully aware of the existence and danger of ammonium nitrate. The question remains, does Macron contradict the US steps to surround the party and Iran and increase sanctions and pressure, or are threads that have begun to weave under the tables between Tehran and the US side, with the hope of reaching an agreement with Trump or his rival? Perhaps this is what we need to know now to better understand Macron’s margin of freedom in a move aimed at floating the French role on the ruins of a currently underdeveloped American role.

Authoring inquiries

Just as Macron used the weapon of sanctions to agree on a prime minister, he again brandished this weapon, giving Lebanese officials three months to bring about real change, “Otherwise, sanctions will be imposed on them.” Macron called for the rapid formation of a government of no more than 20 ministers, and no less than 14 ministers, all of them with specialized financial and economic resources, in various sectors, and with experiences outside of Lebanon. In light of French pressure, Prime Minister-designate Mustafa Adib yesterday held non-binding consultations with the parliamentary blocs and listened to their views on the form of government and their ministerial statement. And many parties and blocs announced that, with the formation of a government of specialists, they would accelerate the implementation of the required reforms, exceeding the demand for portfolios as was done previously. At the conclusion of the consultations, Adeeb declared that “the government must be made up of specialists and work to regain trust both at home and abroad.”

Pope: Lebanon faces “grave danger” and must not be left behind

Pope Francis considered that Lebanon faces a “grave danger”, adding that this country cannot be “isolated”, and called on believers around the world to celebrate “an international day of prayer and fasting for Lebanon. tomorrow Friday September 4 “. He said he intends to send a representative to Lebanon that day, Vatican Secretary of State Cardinal Pietro Parolin.

“In light of the repeated tragedies known to all the inhabitants of this land, we are aware of the grave danger that threatens the existence of this country,” the Pope said in an appeal to the Lebanese people. We cannot leave Lebanon in isolation.

And the Supreme Pontiff added: “Lebanon represents something more than a state: Lebanon is a message of freedom, and is an example of pluralism between East and West, and for the good of Lebanon, but also for the good of the world, We cannot allow this inheritance to be lost. ” Pope Francis called for “politicians and religious leaders to sincerely and transparently commit to the work of reconstruction, to abandon partisan interests and to see the common good and the future of the nation.”