French pressure pays off first in Lebanon

Beirut – Indira Matar –

With a completely new prime minister, in shape, Lebanon yesterday received French President Emmanuel Macron, whose pressure it exerted on officials following the Beirut port explosion disaster by brandishing them with the sword of sanctions if he did so, and the allocation of the Ambassador Mustafa Adib to form a new government would only come with Western pressure. For those in power to the point of drawing up a list of Franco-American sanctions for those who obstruct the reform process.

The president-designate, Mustafa Adib, immediately after the issuance of the decree of his assignment, said that he hopes to “elect a homogeneous work team of people of competence and competence to carry out the reforms.” He added: “There is no time for words, promises, wishes and time to work to form a government quickly.”

Adeeb, who was appointed by a comfortable majority (90 deputies), representing all those in power, from Hezbollah to the Amal Movement, the Free Patriotic Movement, the Future, the Socialist Party, the Nationalist Party, the Movement Marada and the independents, while he was from the Tawafuq faction, the “Lebanese Forces” bloc that insisted on appointing Ambassador Nawaf Salam.

How did Adib land?

The French newspaper Le Figaro reported that the French president is considering imposing sanctions on Lebanese officials should they obstruct the path of reform. Macron told the newspaper: “Yes, we are thinking about sanctions, but we must do this with the Americans for the matter to be effective.” Macron said he will go to the extreme and that there will be no privilege or exclusion for anyone.

An economist told the newspaper that the sanctions list is easy to set up, so if Bassil, Berri and Hariri are told that if they continue to do nothing, they will not be able to move around Europe and that their money will be frozen, then it is supposed to affect them, because they will only understand by damaging their wallet. The expert affirms that it is not President Michel Aoun who should be punished, but his son-in-law Basil, Mirey and Claudine (his two daughters), the former minister Salim Jreissati and his Cedrus Bank.

It is clear that there is a French-led political agreement that accelerated the selection of Mustafa Adib to form the government. But the bigger question is to what extent the French initiative will have the support of the Americans and the Saudis. In this context, several observers believe that Lebanon is in a transitional stage to spend time separating the US electoral station with as little damage as possible, under the auspices of France and Iran, and in light of a direct withdrawal from the Gulf. These observers believe that the agreement has revived the era of President Michel Aoun and Hezbollah, especially since Adeeb is known for his good relationship with the French, on the one hand, and with the Shiite duo, as well as good relations with Gebran Bassil.

Political analyst Mwafak Harb told Al-Qabas that Lebanon’s main problem is economic, which has been exacerbated by the explosion in Beirut, which made Lebanon a humanitarian priority for the West. Harb goes on to say that the crisis has a path to a solution: the Cedar Conference and the International Monetary Fund. And it was learned that the European and Gulf countries and the United States stipulated the existence of a government capable of implementing reforms to open the door to financial aid.

On the form and composition of the new government, and the extent to which it responds to international conditions, Harb says that an initiative at the level of the French presidency cannot be limited to specifying the name of the president, but includes the principles of forming the government and maybe agree on some ministers. The success of this government depends on the ability of France to mobilize international support to help it and on its success in diverting enthusiasm from the Gulf towards Lebanon, under the shadow of the Aoun era and Hezbollah control. The Gulf and the United States believe that it is only possible to deal with the Aoun era by separating it from Hezbollah, but there is almost consensus on the impossibility of this matter. France is aware of this, but does it have the ability to mobilize and change, or at least neutralize the Saudi position in particular?

According to Harb, Macron was able to persuade President Trump to give Lebanon a humanitarian opportunity, but today we are in another stage, which is part of a political agreement, in which the Americans will be in the position of a positive observer, given that Lebanon is not their priority in return, France leads the international community to address. Beirut problems.

Political writer Tony Abi Negm told Al-Qabas that what happened was the result of a Franco-Iranian agreement. He explained that Paris sought to secure the interests of Iran and Hezbollah in order to comfort Tehran in upcoming negotiations with the next US president, be it Donald Trump or Joe Biden, in a way that would qualify Iran to have a winning card in exchange for returning to France to the Lebanese arena. Abi Negm believes that Adeeb is a revised version of Diab, and the difference is that he has a Sunni coverage secured for him by former prime ministers and the Movement of the Future, betting on the success of the French deal. Abi Negm believes that Hariri once again presented a new concession to Hezbollah at the most critical moment for the party. Abi Najm hopes for the rapid formation of the government because Hezbollah agreed to form a government without direct representatives, but the Basil complex remains.

Sunni reverse!

On the other hand, analysts believe that the Sunni community has lost its balance again, and it became clear how much frustration the Sunni street is feeling, which aspires to the arrival of a strong prime minister. So naming Adeeb, even if it brings the coverage of the sect’s strongest political current, is another loss that adds to a series of losses that extend from Yemen to Iraq and Syria, and is most evident in Lebanon, according to journalist Munir al-Rabee ‘, who saw Sunni leaders award Aoun and Basil two victories, the first one that met Gibran’s condition that he should not come. Hariri without him, and the other is for Aoun to dictate to whoever he wants as prime minister, that he is dedicated to achieving the Taif Agreement.

In turn, writer Radwan Al-Sayed told Al-Qabas that “Lebanon is in a regressive stage, not a transition, since it is in an overwhelming crisis that threatens its disappearance, and in the midst of these crises an ambassador who is employed as prime minister enters ”, considering that the system of government that led Hassan Diab to take revenge on Hariri returns to its old tricks With an updated version based on Hariri’s approval, while Hezbollah continues to form governments .

He accused Mr. Hariri, along with the heads of government, of being lethargic, saying: “They used to submit to the will of Hezbollah and the Aounist movement, which called for the destruction of the Taif Agreement, which empowered the Sunni prime minister, and It is no wonder that the President of the Republic spoke of his desire to develop the sectarian-filled system, and the day before the Secretary General called on Hezbollah Until a New Decade, Shiite Mufti Ahmad Kabalan said he wanted to blow up everything the system because it is sectarian and wants a civil status, while its supporters chant “Shiite Shiite” in Martyrs’ Square.

On the other hand, activists have expressed their anger at the adoption by the authority of the same “scenario” of authorship and mandate that it has adopted in recent years, and say that public opinion will not pass this game and the street will continue to reject this authority. In the same context, the head of the Kataeb Party, resigned MP Sami Gemayel, tweeted saying: “A new maneuver for the failed system to float. The mechanism is clear: one decides, part carries out and part covers, and the objective is avoid change. “

Bahaa Hariri: They sold the third presidency to Iran and its militias

Saad’s older brother Bahaa Hariri expressed disapproval of choosing Adeeb, tweeting: “The mask fell on those who claim to be interested in the post of prime minister and its powers, after they neglected the rights of Sunnis. and exposed them to grievances, here they are selling the site of the third presidency to Iran. And their militias ”. He added: “Mustafa Adeeb is another agent of the old Lebanese regime; it is unacceptable that warlords and militias run our country … We need a complete change to get to the new Lebanon. ”

In turn, MP Nihad Machnouk criticized the four heads of government, adding: “The commitment of the Prime Minister’s Club to the prior approval of the ruling coalition, specifically Hezbollah, on behalf of the president-designate, constitutes an abandonment of the secretariat. national that was placed in their hands ”.