An exceptional French effort on Macron’s second visit … failure is forbidden

Michel Abu Negm wrote in “Asharq Al-Awsat” French President Emmanuel Macron returns to Lebanon with the intention of “obtaining results” according to Elysee sources yesterday, in the course of presenting them for the visit, considering that it falls within the “framework pressure “exerted by France to push the Lebanese political class to respond. With local and international demands pushing to fill the institutional vacuum and reach the formation of a “mission government”. The upcoming date of the visit appears to have prompted the presidency to set the date for parliamentary consultations on Monday, the day Macron arrives in Beirut. The Elysee considered that those who promoted the withdrawal of Macron from his second visit, but rather “by their desire after respecting their commitments.” Therefore, he wants to ensure the “extent of compliance with the obligations” that the Lebanese political parties contracted to him, 25 days after his first meeting with them. A senior French source said Macron’s plan is based on freezing political disputes to make room, in the next year or two, until the date of the parliamentary elections, for the establishment of a clean and effective government capable of putting known reforms are underway and allow (foreign) parties that wish to provide Support to Lebanon to do that. ”According to Paris, the necessary reform commitments should form the basis of the ministerial declaration that the government is supposed to present to win the confidence of the parliament Among the tasks of the French president will be to know the parties that want to be part of this government or are willing to support it in Parliament.

Regarding the information circulating about the French will to host Lebanese politicians, presidential sources believed that today the focus is on the next government, and “everything is in its moment”, leaving the doors open for an initiative of this type. These sources add that “in the event that a task force is established, we will work with others to provide the necessary international support not only to address the emergency situations arising from the port explosion, but to address the economic and financial situation and carry out structural reforms that have been postponed for political reasons, “referring to what came. It includes the “Cedar” conference in spring 2018 and the promises made by the Lebanese delegation at that time, but nothing has been fulfilled.

Before arriving in Beirut, Macron will make a series of “Lebanese” contacts, the most important of which are the Presidents of the Republic and Parliament (Michel Aoun and Nabih Berri), former Prime Minister Saad Hariri and others, in preparation. for the visit. However, from his first visit to Beirut, he proceeded to communicate with the influential authorities of Lebanon, among which were, according to his sources, the president of the United States, the president of the European Council, the German chancellor, the Saudi crown prince , the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, the Iranian President, the Emir of Qatar and others, in the framework of consultations in order to provide some kind of international consensus. On Lebanon and supporting the mission it is undertaking. According to the Elysee, “there are different views between the parties”, but there is “an agreement to freeze the political war and focus on dealing with urgent crises and accept the principle that, without that, no one will be a winner and everyone will be a loser.” Paris publicly emphasizes that communicating with Washington is its purpose. Ensure that we go in the same direction despite different visions ”, including the presence of Hezbollah in the government, as Washington seeks to impose more sanctions and isolate it as part of a process of twisting the existing arm between it and Iran.

Paris, formally at least, does not want to enter the game of candidates for prime minister or cabinet. However, there are “troublesome” issues in the approaches, including the presence of “Hezbollah” in the government. In this sense, the French position has not changed, according to which Paris “deals with the existing political reality”, including Hezbollah, which Paris calls to “refrain from taking any action that could escalate with Israel, as it did in 2006” . It is understood that France is not opposed to the presence of “Hezbollah” or someone close to him in the next government, who must “support” Saad Hariri, who announced that he is not a candidate in the sense that he will be “covered” by Sunnis so that the case of the resigned Prime Minister Hassan Diab is not repeated. In practice, Paris wants an inclusive government of the parties that are willing to go ahead with the reform process and participate in the reconstruction of the port and what was destroyed by the explosions, and to combat the “Covid-19” epidemic, and address the economic and financial situation and the necessary reforms it requires, and prepare for the elections that will do so. “It opens a new political horizon.” However, presidential sources did not indicate whether they saw it early or on time. As for the central bank, France sees it as “part of a system that has been consumed and there is a need for change due to a combination of factors.” In dealing with this thorny dossier, he sees the need for financial and criminal audits, and also emphasizes the need to change financial practices, including: using public money for the benefit of all Lebanese, carrying out profound reforms in the finance sector. energy, electricity and customs, and making sure that what is owed to the state is collected, revealing that the Central Bank French cooperates with its Lebanese counterpart to provide assistance … and I attributed the failure in Lebanon to reach an understanding with the International Monetary Fund for “political reasons.”

This is the French political vision of the Lebanese political reality today and of what France wants to do. French sources summed up Macron’s approach by saying that he would not let the Lebanese work on their own whim. You are more likely to draw inspiration from previous disappointing experiences and do not want to reap a failure in a file in which you invested time and effort not as a wish in Lebanese affairs, but because the Lebanese are the ones asking for help.

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