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1- Coroni’s partial or relative paralysis of the powers of the great powers to fight fierce or even lukewarm conflicts, either between them or between their regional allies, and its reflection on the scene of calm or “spaced” confrontations.
2- An economic consequence in the region, due to the factors of the fall in the price of oil and the “coroniana” epidemic … that does not save the rich or poor from their entities, but throws a fracture in their future, near and far.
3- A balance of nervous forces in the region that does not allow a regional force to resolve the conflict in its favor at the expense of others:
Israel has been unable to break Iran, or its allies, even if it can harm Syria, and its sponsor, the United States, can exhaust it by blocking sanctions. On the other hand, we see him preparing to accuse the geography of Jerusalem, the settlements and the valleys, in collusion with the American state of Trump, under the belief that the atmosphere of the epidemic is enough to paralyze anyone to repel, prevent or restrict.
Turkey, unable to enforce its wishes in northern Syria, without enabling Russian and American silence, not to mention exposing its economy to the high costs of adversaries from Gulf opponents and others, in trying to hit its economy and strategically rotate your arm. On the other hand, we see that it compensates the limited Syrian success in the last decade, with a cross-border section of the eastern Mediterranean and “riparian” with Libya in terms of oil and gas.
Saudi Arabia, rotated in its dearest possession: oil money; Exhausted from his manipulation of the war in Yemen, there is a small trick he considers his antidote to Iran: a loser in the Arab north. On the other hand, he sits between Ben in the Libyan arena, and clings to the Egyptian decision, in association with his Emirati ally.
Iran, besieged with feces on his pension, is disabled by Syria, according to his hired demon in Iraq and even Lebanon, and is surrounded by a bracelet of American bases on land and sea. On the other hand, he had the ability to be patient and pushed, which did not break Guinness’s hair.
Well, let’s see what our international influence is like: deep down, the specter of a pandemic, for everyone. This is in the pan. As for, in particular, there is no longer what the United States can forcefully impose, but rather the process of repositioning its capabilities began before the epidemic, and accelerated after it, stimulated by the results of the expansion overkill, wasting $ 8 billion on its course and wasting a whole decimal on it. It is the first years of the twentieth century. And the Russo-Chinese association is still in a better position to stop it than to impose it, either by choosing Chinese, and now it is a deer, or by forcing Russia.
How is all this reflected in Palestine now? From the perspective of the Israeli right (and Israel is fine now … but he is tribal and warrior, great now and perhaps hotter at the same time), and his Trump trap, the epidemic failed, is an implicit leap that the former has been debunking for decades, and the latter is determined to support it, that is from the angle of empowering Israel as a regional agent, or in terms of meeting the demand of its chronic electoral environment … this is in the intention. Well, what are the three regional actors, apart from Israel … and the two continents, apart from the United States … and, also, Europe?
Despite the public epidemic, the most effective Palestinian regional is Iran, and it has multiple theaters: Syria, Lebanon, and Gaza. Simply because whoever has committed, and what has been dismantled, building a missile system, both qualitatively and quantitatively, across the Arab north, with links to Gaza, and in the past seven and seven years, has provided deterrence. pre-egalitarian, and almost wiped out Israel’s ability to launch an offensive war in the ocean. However, Iran and its allies have not yet reached the limit of their ability to curb Israel’s intention to annex half of the West Bank. What’s missing? The absence of a central Arab partner, the turmoil in the Iranian-Turkish relationship with Syria, and the absence of different international support.
Where is Saudi Arabia today? He is experimenting with a fellow traveler with Israel, thinking that it will protect him from “exaggerating” Iran, in an uncalculated gamble of the current in the ruling clan, and with the “vision” of this broken current, with the exhaustion of its coffers. of oil and rituals, and with its fatal losses from Yemen, it will shake the earth beneath it. Regardless of any trace of the joy of fun and pleasure after a narrowing. The same applies to his environment and his “Egypt”.
Knowing that Turkey, like Iran, does not establish itself as a regional power, except by reducing Israel’s position, and only for that reason does it become “superpower” and not ordinary … except that Turkey is occupied in a Syrian maze of its itself, and with the sins of a foolish calculation made by its decision makers in the fall of 2011. It has ceased to be balanced enough against Israel, a Palestinian, despite his work in the real estate sector in Jerusalem and elsewhere. places, and because of their political and media help. What you need is to realize the importance of unloading Israel from your ally, from any other Levantine issue. Someone has to say: How can Turkey fulfill its Palestinian duty while chained by NATO restrictions? The fact is, there are no restrictions on chaining and S400 transaction.
In the universe, there is a problem that I measure first: Israel does not see in Russia or China an ally, partner or friend. The only person with these traits and more (pastor) is the United States. Russia and China are in Israel as a benefit project, and in the case of Russia in particular, a party with which it manages arrangements to avoid compromise … The United States does not intend to remind Israel of its low ceiling. benefit. Both see the annexation of half of the West Bank as sabotage of a solution in Palestine, whenever they crave it, and serious arbitrariness with the oppression of its people will soon shoot into Western Asia. But his overthrow of a crippling role, which requires the ambition of the US. In the USA, it hardens a stick, except by relying on a solid regional wall, that is, a Turkish-Iranian, which has become more possible amid the challenges and alignments of the epidemic. Furthermore, China is particularly eager for a “positive” exposure to the United States, and it is not the most beloved from an Israeli front, especially since it has lost the Sino-Israeli relationship that has come into circulation. Official Europe, on the other hand, is only good at submission to the Americans: the Israelis right now and glory, but their societies are elsewhere, and it will be motivated by pressure on their official sentiment that the cohesion of the local, regional and Eurasian is embodied.
Okay, do the same banking powers carry weight in this equation? It is correct to cut off the lack of confidence of the Palestinian people in the West Bank in their influential leaders, and in that it is a secret that dissuades them from putting their weight back on the conflict, provided that it weighs on their shoulders and prevents their instincts. While returning to the difficult number in the conflict equation, she must be displaced by him, including removing his security record from his wrist, vacating his guardian barrier to occupation, and making him a pure local municipal authority that has no character. politician. The first priority is not to let yourself be tempted by Trump to present him with an alternative proposal, but rather to be forced to abstain, even if verbally. Now there is an opportunity for months, I notice about the following factors:
Israel’s military security establishment fears and warns of the consequences of annexation. Egypt and Gulf reserves are pleading with their Trumpist sponsors to grant annexation permission for fear of the consequences. The American national security system opposes and warns. American Judaism is divided into two halves, one of which is an opponent. Jordan feels his neck. Europe stops with a palm, so Western Asia is a stone’s throw away. Consequently, what was green light turned yellow.
Okay, how do I turn yellow to red? The starting point is with the “elites” from all over Palestine. If he meets a common denominator, that is, defeating the occupation and restoring the West Bank, according to an operational program, and launched a call for a “Syrian” approach between Iran and Turkey that stops the war, and has been shown to himself first, then Iran and Turkey, and his successors to Russia and China. It is a crane inside and a cord, which is why it was complemented with them and with the foundations of a steel support, and it was necessary for the Israeli, American and European parties to light the red.
But … if we lose these upcoming months, we will be like those who renewed the Nakba.
