Hariri approaches the moment of the difficult and decisive decision Falanges

The government attached to Prime Minister Saad Hariri faces a difficult and unenviable situation when he sees how the government and the political horizon are blocked in front of him, and has approached the moment to make the difficult and decisive decision: or walk with a government that does not give everything it wants and satisfies Aoun and Hezbollah … or apologizes.

Prime Minister Saad Hariri faces an unenviable difficult situation when he sees how the government and the political horizon are blocked in front of him, how he loses the opportunity to form a government according to his vision and conditions under the roof of the French initiative. . , and how events and developments exceeded the mission government and consumed the six-month period set for it.

From Hariri’s perspective, he came to lead an important government, and on the basis that forming any government that does not meet the conditions for success internally and does not receive Arab and international coverage will exacerbate the Lebanese impasse, because the chances of getting out of the the collapse will be non-existent. He also believes that the government, which is based on the French initiative as a governmental structure and financial economic program, is the only way to win the trust of the international community, which is heading towards Lebanon to help it emerge from its crisis.

In recent months, Hariri has waged an open confrontation with President Michel Aoun, with which it became clear that Aoun was not walking with a government in which he was not a partner in creation. Rather, it became clear that President Aoun did not want Hariri, and he was the one with great reservations about his return to the post of prime minister, and he expressed his position when addressing the Lebanese on the eve of the author consultations, stating the dangers and difficulties that will result from that … and this negative attitude about Aoun’s part increased with the days instead of diminishing, and where the President of the Republic expresses in front of close visitors his disappointment with Hariri and the collapse of his confidence in him, because he is a liar and a failure and the experience with him. at the beginning The two years of the era were neither positive nor encouraging.

Hariri bet on the time factor, that Aoun will retire sooner or later, and that his situation beset by the suffocating economic crisis, the French impulse, the change in the general Christian mood, and the American sanctions against Gebran Bassil, all this . will eventually push him to retreat to save what remains of his era … and it seems that Hariri made a mistake in evaluating Aoun’s position and his reaction, and did not expect that he would not change his position no matter how much he matters and no matter how Intense is the pressure, and whatever has reached the collapse in the country, and no internal or external force or party could influence it and change its position. The second mistake Hariri made, by extension, lies in evaluating Hezbollah’s position, which Hariri tried to neutralize and wipe out the Shiite part of the authorship in accordance with what the “duo” envisions. In fact, Hariri believed and expected the party to put pressure on his Christian ally (Aoun and Basil), but the party’s position came. He is biased towards Aoun, and his sources say that the party does not accept that Aoun leaves this round as a loser or “broken”, and that he is misled by anyone who believes that the party can leave Aoun or prefer Hariri to he. Aoun is more difficult than the party he faces, but it is more than he trusted, while Hariri has not yet shown that he is consistent and clear in his policies and positions and does not deserve special treatment. Here it is clear that the issue is not personal, but mainly political, and that recent developments stem from great pressure on the Pact. From the October 17 revolution to the US sanctions and the change in speech and policy of Bkerke, he did his job to bring Aoun and Nasrallah closer together, strengthening the relationship between the movement and the party, and blurring the gaps and disparities that had emerged and grown in the recent period.

Regarding the errors of appreciation that Hariri fell into and the surprises he did not expect, related to the French position that he wanted to pressure Aoun and Bassil, and then it became in the last days a “pressure on him”. And related to Walid Jumblatt’s change of position from advising Hariri to “retreat” to his call for the formation of the government and not dwelling on ridiculous matters, including the government of 18. This development took place in the positions of Paris and Jumblatt after the mediation led by Major General Abbas Ibrahim reached a hole in the crisis wall, with Aoun leaving the 20-minister government and the third obstructing and acceding to a part. He had a “5 + 1” in exchange for his claim to the Ministry of the Interior. .. But Hariri clung to the Home Office and things stopped here for the ball to settle on his court.

In fact, Hariri faces great pressures, the pressures of the crisis, the time factor, the street, public opinion, the Arab and international position, and also the pressures of his opponents who speak of his inability to compose, and that The decision is not in his hands, but it is a reality between the fear of the US sanctions that are still contained on his relatives, and that of a Saudi veto that remains in place and has not been lifted from him and his new government. .. Hariri is besieged by a situation of pressure that tightens the screws and puts him in the difficult corner, and has approached the moment of making the difficult and decisive decision: or walk with a government that does not give him everything he wants. and satisfy Aoun and Hezbollah .. or excuse me.