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On Thursday, December 31, 2020, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif accused Trump of seeking to invent a “pretext” to launch a “war”, at a time when there is a new escalation of tension between the two countries. . Zarif added in a tweet: “Instead of fighting the Corona virus in the United States, Donald Trump spends billions to launch B-52 bombers and deploy a fleet in our region,” referring to “Iraqi information that has reported a plot to fabricate an excuse to wage war. “
At the same time, the US channel NBC quoted a US official on Friday night, January 1, 2021, as saying that “there are increasing indications that Iran may be planning an attack against US forces and interests in the Middle. East”.
This statement was preceded only by hours, another statement by a US official in which he told CNN: “Iranian naval forces in the Gulf have strengthened readiness levels over the past 48 hours, and it is unclear whether the movements of Iran are defensive or refer to operations against the United States. As he put it.
Since October, the Pentagon has deployed 2,000 additional troops and a squadron of fighter jets to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and has also sent B-52 bombers on missions in the Persian Gulf three times, and has maintained the aircraft carrier “Nimitz” near Iran, and has announced the dispatch of a submarine. Attack launches Tomahawk missiles out of Iranian waters. Furthermore, Israel recently sent a nuclear-armed submarine to the Persian Gulf.
Officially, all these military maneuvers are aimed at “dissuading” Tehran, despite the fact that Israel assassinated an Iranian official in Iran and not the other way around. The Washington Post quoted Marine Corps General Kenneth “Frank” McKenzie, Commander of the United States Central Command, as saying: “The United States continues to deploy combat-ready capabilities in the United States Central Command area of responsibility to deter any potential adversary and make it clear that we are ready and able to respond to any aggression directed against Americans or our interests. “
A new statement by Hussain Dehghan, the military adviser to the Supreme Leader in Iran, took the form of a direct threat to the United States on the night of Thursday, December 31, 2020, in a tweet on his official account on “Twitter”, in the one that said “Iranian missiles cover all US military bases in the region.”
He added: “We recommend that the man who was ousted from the White House, that is, Trump, does not make the New Year a condolence for Americans.”
Not surprisingly, Tehran has interpreted these actions as threats and provocations, just as the United States used to see Iranian warships parking off the coast of Florida, says Trita Parsi, an award-winning expert on Iranian-American relations for her literature on Iranian affairs.
In an analysis published by the American website Responsible Statecraft, Parsi adds that what increased fears of an imminent military confrontation were rumors of the Trump administration’s refusal to allow Biden’s transition team to meet with intelligence agencies. defense. The move not only caused a stir in Biden’s team, it also attracted international attention.
For his part, Tobias Ellwood, a Conservative British MP and chairman of the House of Commons Defense Committee, speculated on Twitter that Trump was preventing intelligence briefings on Biden, “because he is planning two major operations that could get the green light sooner. January 20 “.
Carl Bildt, Sweden’s former prime minister and foreign minister, called Trump’s behavior “bizarre” and asked if there were “recent changes related to possible or planned impending operations.”
Which makes matters worse and indicates that instead of seeking to deter Iran, Trump may be paving the way for an optional war, statements by senior Pentagon officials claiming that “the Iranian threat is exaggerated.” A senior defense official with a direct role in the case told CNN: “There is not a single supporting intelligence that indicates that an attack from Iran may be imminent.”
If Trump seeks a confrontation with Iran during the last days of his presidency, what are his motives? There are two things that need to be clarified, says the Parsi expert:
First, whatever the reason, you may have been wrong in your estimates. His entire policy towards Iran has been miserable and he has shown no ability to learn from his mistakes for the past four years.
Second, his track record indicates that the more desperate he becomes, the more reckless he becomes. In his desperate quest to hold onto power, he is exploring every avenue to overturn the election results, even hinting at the idea of demanding martial law. Even retired General Michael Flynn suggested that Trump deploy the military in “changing states”; To “restart” the elections.
Could Trump attempt to provoke a military confrontation with Iran, hoping to create enough chaos to prevent Joe Biden from taking office in January? There is no reason to believe that such a maneuver will succeed, but the insanity of the idea is not a compelling reason why a desperate Trump refrained from trying.
At the very least, Trump will have the support of a large base of evangelical Christians who see the confrontation with Iran as “the fulfillment of the apocalypse in the Book of Revelation,” as well as the prophecy of the Republican Party’s biggest financial backer, Sheldon Adelson. Trump has already complied with all of Adelson’s requests (except for the war with Iran); From moving the US embassy to Jerusalem and accepting Israel’s annexation of the Golan Heights, to the release of Israeli spy Jonathan Pollard, who flew to Israel this week on a private Adelson plane. The Associated Press described his release as “the latest in a long list of diplomatic gifts President Donald Trump gave Netanyahu to Netanyahu.”
Even if the confrontation with Iran does not prevent Biden from becoming president, Trump can imagine that he will eliminate the Iran nuclear deal permanently and forever, and ensure the continued support of Adelson and his evangelicals, which in turn could help. Trump to consolidate his control over the Republican Party even after his presidency.
On Friday, Israeli and Arab media reported that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Israel were pressuring Trump to bomb Iranian nuclear facilities before he specifically leaves office. To prevent Biden from returning to the JCPOA.
Whatever Trump’s calculation, there is clearly a risk that the last three weeks of Trump’s presidency will be the most dangerous.
